Storm Franklin

[The PIT]

So is the system bringing wet and windy weather for Sunday to Monday going to be named. Going to be a case of inconstancy if it isn't.

Edited February 20, 2022 by Jo Farrow
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[Guest]

35 minutes ago, The PIT said:

So is the system bringing wet and windy weather for Sunday to Monday going to be named. Going to be a case of inconstancy if it isn't.

@Met4Cast mentioned to me on Facebook it would require an amber warning to be named and it doesn't look like reaching amber criteria.

I don't know whether I agree with the Met Office's stance on that, purely because Dudley and Eunice have weakened structures and trees somewhat. Even though this is a lesser low it is still likely to cause disruption. 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

6 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

@Met4Cast mentioned to me on Facebook it would require an amber warning to be named and it doesn't look like reaching amber criteria.

I don't know whether I agree with the Met Office's stance on that, purely because Dudley and Eunice have weakened structures and trees somewhat. Even though this is a lesser low it is still likely to cause disruption. 

If it isn't considered amber warning worthy should the current charts keep coming out I'll be really surprised, especially for the area going into the west coast of Scotland and down the Irish Sea, 80mph and higher a distinct possibility there 

[SP1986]

Yes if this remains consistent in the charts it needs to be named 'Francis' as it is a storm in its own right looking at the models. Northern Ireland, southwestern Scotland and NW England/N Wales coast. Top gusts as said look like being around 75-80mph around NI and SW Scotland as it stands. 

 

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

If it isn't considered amber warning worthy should the current charts keep coming out I'll be really surprised, especially for the area going into the west coast of Scotland and down the Irish Sea, 80mph and higher a distinct possibility there 

I agree

[Polar Maritime]

Warning now out from the Meto.

[Ross90]

I do wish they would tidy warning maps up when it's like that, it was even worse yesterday. They overlap so much that it's hard to see where one finishes and the next one starts.

[SP1986]

Looking at the impact Matrix, it looks like southern areas may well get an amber warning first despite the potentially lower windspeeds, due to the effects that Eunice had on infrastructure and trees etc. Also Met Office are keen to point out there will be a squall line going through England and Wales with winds potentially up to 70mph on the line. 

Edited February 19, 2022 by SP1986

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

12 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Warning now out from the Meto.

They must've read my post so if the output stays as is, that new yellow warning zone goes amber IMO and I'd extend it further north east a bit into west coast of Scotland 

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, Steel City Skies said:

@Met4Cast mentioned to me on Facebook it would require an amber warning to be named and it doesn't look like reaching amber criteria.

That was the initial criteria, but there have been multiple occasions where an amber wasn't issued and a system was named. 

There's been a lot of discussion about that since it was introduced.

[smichling]

29 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Looking at the impact Matrix, it looks like southern areas may well get an amber warning first despite the potentially lower windspeeds, due to the effects that Eunice had on infrastructure and trees etc. Also Met Office are keen to point out there will be a squall line going through England and Wales with winds potentially up to 70mph on the line. 

I've spotted some of the higher res models picking up on a pretty fierce squall line passing through on Sunday afternoon/evening depending how Far East you are. I expect it'll be talked about more and more later this evening as it looked quite impressive. AROME, UKV and UKMO showed it most clearly. Let's see what happens...

[Stormchaser17]

6 minutes ago, smichling said:

I've spotted some of the higher res models picking up on a pretty fierce squall line passing through on Sunday afternoon/evening depending how Far East you are. I expect it'll be talked about more and more later this evening as it looked quite impressive. AROME, UKV and UKMO showed it most clearly. Let's see what happens...

You're right, I hadn't noticed that at first glance, but the squall line is definitely there, just right alongh the Theta-e boundary switch.

 

[Marcus_surfer]

How likely are we to see an update towards amber in South Wales. BBC going for 5 hours above 60mph for tommorow. Very concerning 

[SP1986]

ICON projected gusts on the 12z

 

[Snowyowl9]

Severe gales sunday night and snow showers too.

This will hit here.

[legritter]

Brilliant discussion gang  ,there is potential for a very stormy squall line , i feel warnings will be updated later tonight or tomorrow morning. Some better 850s around later ,take care all brilliant posts , and sausage baps for you all .

 

[alexisj9]

Today is windy again too down here, but nothing like yesterday. Although a bin did get blown across the road.

[JBMWeatherForever]

In the Isle of man we had an amber warning issued by our met office this afternoon at 3pm for gusts of 75mph overnight Sunday into Monday, and this currently looks to be easily achievable.  Been an interesting day here with heavy snow during this morning!

Edited February 19, 2022 by JBMWeatherForever

[Stormchaser17]

WRF 12z seem to still see the squall line forming tomorrow afternoon/evening for parts of Wales and England.

Possible 60-70 mph local gusts and high rain rates close to the transit of the squall. Better stay alert and safe.

Edited February 19, 2022 by Stormchaser17

[Nick L]

Don't understand how this one doesn't warrant amber or being named, 50-60mph widely across the south normally is pretty noteworthy. We've had weaker systems named. Perhaps we'll have another super useful 4am update.

Edited February 19, 2022 by Nick L

[camturbo]

Think it may change even estofex has level 3 for parts of Scotland for gusts

[GSP]

4 minutes ago, camturbo said:

Think it may change even estofex has level 3 for parts of Scotland for gusts

Goodness! They are not issued lightly!

[Lesley89]

23 minutes ago, GSP said:

Goodness! They are not issued lightly!

I am in carrickfergus (ni) and the wind has started to pick up here the last 20mins, not sure if it's related to tomorrow but it's definitely went a bit wild 

[Liam Burge]

54 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Don't understand how this one doesn't warrant amber or being named, 50-60mph widely across the south normally is pretty noteworthy. We've had weaker systems named. Perhaps we'll have another super useful 4am update.

To be honest, the metoffice is predicting stronger winds here than it did for Eunice, and we were in a red warning for that. In no way am I referring this system to Eunice though.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Think an amber will go up tomorrow if intensity is shown to stay the same. Most probably because structures will have already been weakened by Eunice. Hi res modelling currently showing 60-65mph gusts quite widely for inland NW England, for example.