Storm Franklin

[Wold Topper]

17 minutes ago, Lesley89 said:

I am in carrickfergus (ni) and the wind has started to pick up here the last 20mins, not sure if it's related to tomorrow but it's definitely went a bit wild 

I blame it on a galway girl, and some one singing the blues???

[Lesley89]

1 minute ago, Wold Topper said:

I blame it on a galway girl, and some one singing the blues???

Maybe

[legritter]

Certainly many places will see a day of action weather tomorrow ,currently warnings are yellow ,i am sure Amber will be added in the morning .850s will be falling ,and the DAM will eventually fall to 528 , could be that a few surprises lie ahead .All this is better than the crudy mild constant benign spell we had in January and early feb , cheers alll .

[Wold Topper]

6 minutes ago, legritter said:

Certainly many places will see a day of action weather tomorrow ,currently warnings are yellow ,i am sure Amber will be added in the morning .850s will be falling ,and the DAM will eventually fall to 528 , could be that a few surprises lie ahead .All this is better than the crudy mild constant benign spell we had in January and early feb , cheers alll .

Stella's on u then? cheers!

[Roger J Smith]

An orange alert has been issued by Met Eireann for Donegal valid 0100-0700h for winds gusting to 130 km/hr. This would presumably be similar for north coast of Northern Ireland as well. Certainly close to the intensity of other named storms of the past, perhaps a wider extent of orange level alerts would bring on "Franklin?" (later edit -- this has now taken place).

Before this very windy period begins, strong west to northwest winds more widely after passage of a potential (partial or broken perhaps) squall line crossing Ireland mid-day and Britain later afternoon into evening. Temperatures will take a tumble from near 12 C to 3-5 C within a few hours. Wintry showers seem likely on higher terrain and in much of Scotland. 

The stronger core of winds will be phased with a low of about 975 mb moving in from the northwest (across central Scotland) overnight and Met E also warn of "phenomenal waves" in the vicinity of Donegal Bay at least, if not further south along the west coast of Ireland.

The portions of Britain most likely to be affected would be southwest Scotland, Cumbria, Lancs, north Wales and also the Isle of Man. This likely won't be anywhere near as severe as Eunice in the south. 

Edited February 20, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[The PIT]

Local forecast has winds up to 60 mph still not named and looks like they won't at the moment.

[North East Blizzard]

Not sure how this isn't named, some very strong gusts forecast for my post code, slightly higher elsewhere too. 

[SP1986]

9 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

Not sure how this isn't named, some very strong gusts forecast for my post code, slightly higher elsewhere too. 

Indeed, it is clearly a storm in both character and strength. Quite a strange decision not to name it. The forecast maximum wind gust on the coast here at 6am tomorrow morning is 72mph. With all the saturated ground this is creeping up without notice it seems. 

[Liam Burge]

[Liam Burge]

13 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

A level 3 was issued across western and south-western Scotland, northeastern England, and northern parts of the island of Ireland mainly for severe wind gusts.

A level 2 was issued across large parts of England, Wales, the island of Ireland, the Benelux, and across far northern France and western parts of Germany for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

British Isles, Benelux, France, Germany, and central Europe...

A strong WNW-ESE oriented jet streak with 150-200 kt wind speeds at 300 mb rapidly translates ESE-ward with its right exit quadrant about 600 km west of NW Ireland at 12 UTC, over the Irish Sea at 18 UTC, the southern North Sea at 00 UTC, and north-central France at 06 UTC. Strong quasi-geostrophic forcing for upward motion and resulting destabilization is expected to move in concert with it, which will force linear convection along and behind a cold front that will move southeastward from Western Scotland and Ireland southeastward across the British Isles and reach the Alps on Monday morning.

The front should become defined as a rainband as low-level convergence increases during the morning and the afternoon when it tracks southeastward across Wales and England. The strong background wind field of 30-35 m/s at 850 mb suggests that severe gusts should gradually become an increasing risk. Some very severe gusts of over 32 m/s may occur especially while crossing the North Sea and affecting the Benelux countries.

Convection allowing models suggest that some mesovortices may develop along the line in particular when it moves inland across the Benelux, northern France and western Germany where it encounters strongly helical low-level flow (>400 m2/s2 storm-relative helicity in the 0-1 km layer) This would suggest that an enhanced risk of very severe gusts > 32 to extend inland, as well as a risk of tornadoes.
Limiting factors to their development, however, are the moderate convergence and wind shift along the line, which in the ICON-D2 model yield, fortunately, values of vertical vorticity of about half to two-thirds of those that were predicted for the line that produced multiple tornadoes in Poland early on Friday. Some risk for tornadoes will nevertheless remain. The risk for severe weather overall is expected to slowly diminish as the forcing of the upper-level jet/vorticity maximum slowly weakens toward the morning.

Scotland, northern England and Wales, Ireland...

The upper-level vorticity maximum on the polar side of the leading part of the jet streak is followed by a second one, which can better be described as a low-to mid-level vorticity maximum with a deep, but slowly filling surface low. This system causes destabilization that will invigorate a second area of convection approaching Scotland and Ireland between 21 and 00 UTC. Because it is embedded in a particularly strong flow and linear organisation is likely as it moves southward after midnight UTC, a level 3 was issued for the area that will be affected. Very severe gusts exceeding 32 m/s will be fairly widespread with the convection, also across areas somewhat further inland. That being said, the convection is not the only culprit: especially the coastal regions of western Scotland and in the north of Ireland will also experience such severe gusts outside of convective storms as a result of the very tight pressure gradient.

[Johnp]

Storm Franklin has now been named by the Irish Met. Time to change the thread title? 

[MR CB]

I'm quite surprised that even after Eunice the winds are still very strong and damaging - as later today we now have a squall going through. 

XE is suggesting gusts to 66mph for my location - again not far off what Eunice gave us. The yellow warning may well be changed / updated.

As to naming it a storm system then I think more yes than no - the strong and gusty winds over the next 24 hours are affecting most of the country.

Edited February 20, 2022 by MR CB

[Bristawl Si]

Gusts recorded at my nearest Met O weather station  up road in Almondsbury, are approaching Friday's levels.

[Marcus_surfer]

Very strong winds here yet again gusting to 50mph, and stronger gusts expected later.

Mumbles head has stopped giving out readings, so cant give official recording

Edited February 20, 2022 by Marcus_surfer

[Evening thunder]

Agree this is amber worthy, if the GFS is not overestimating then this is stronger than Dudley was modelled (which then downgraded but the Amber stayed in place). 

In fact it's a similar strength on the GFS to Eunice.. A couple of charts for I saved for Eunice on the left, and 3am Monday on the right

 

 

 

The ECM was not as strong last night, but the website I know for ECM gusts has not updated this morning.

I see the Met have issued a small Amber for Northern Ireland, surely they will too for NW England/N Wales unless their models are showing significantly lower speeds than the GFS.

Edited February 20, 2022 by Evening thunder

[Polar Maritime]

Heavy persistent rain here in the Peak District with winds gusts touching 60mph already. The river Wye and Lathkil are already flooded with many roads impassable and the brooks boiling over. 

[The PIT]

Not windy here yet but expecting the fun to start later today and tonight as the wind more to the west then west north west. It is bloomin wet though.

[Guest]

17 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Agree this is amber worthy, if the GFS is not overestimating then this is stronger than Dudley was modelled (which then downgraded but the Amber stayed in place). 

In fact it's a similar strength on the GFS to Eunice.. A couple of charts for I saved for Eunice on the left, and 3am Monday on the right

 

 

 

The ECM was not as strong last night, but the website I know for ECM gusts has not updated this morning.

I see the Met have issued a small Amber for Northern Ireland, surely they will too for NW England/N Wales unless their models are showing significantly lower speeds than the GFS.

UKV 03z looking gnarly for many western and northwestern areas; certainly worthy of a wider amber warning.

[Skullzrulerz]

The Met Office have issued a Amber Warning for most of Northern Ireland.

It will be in force from midnight until 7am tomorrow morning.

Regions affected are.

County Antrim

County Down

County Londonderry

County Tyrone

"A swathe of very strong west to northwesterly winds will reach the north coast of Northern Ireland late on Sunday evening, quickly moving south into the early hours of Monday. Gusts of 60-70 mph are expected widely and perhaps 80 mph briefly near exposed northern coasts. Winds will ease steadily from the northwest during Monday morning."

UK weather warnings

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

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Met Office UK weather warnings for rain, snow, wind, fog and ice. Choose your location to keep up to date with local weather warnings.

 

 

Edited February 20, 2022 by Skullzrulerz

[Snowjokes92]

The winds across  the northwest and pennines warrant an amber warning surely! On top of the current YELLOW rain warning thats currently over parts of northwest and yorkshire after storm eunice as well. Ridiculous! I know Eunice was much worse further south, but it did pack quite a punch up here and if anything storm franklin has some very high gusts projected for these parts. Which is only going to add to the problems already occured in theae areas. 

Edited February 20, 2022 by Snowjokes92

[minus10]

Yes it looks like quite a squall line for this afternoon..with 60mph or more very possible

Also i have noticed if you currently follow the radar run the areas of rain are mainly over the land areas with the Irish Sea mainly clear. Is this  a good example of oragraphic lifting in operation (i think that is what it is called)?

 

[Ross90]

Quite breezy here last night, for once it was actually slightly higher than the met forecast with gusts into the mid to high 40s. Maybe 50mph tonight, it looks like an overnight peak so possibly the reason for a lack of widespread amber warnings.

[Mark Smithy]

Crikey. I was all set to go back to pottering around in my everyday life, assuming the worst storm in 32 years would be 'it' for a while. Then hot on its heels comes Franklin. This isn't of the same order but it's still going to be pretty wild for a time.

[StingJet]

51 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Yes it looks like quite a squall line for this afternoon..with 60mph or more very possible

Also i have noticed if you currently follow the radar run the areas of rain are mainly over the land areas with the Irish Sea mainly clear. Is this  a good example of oragraphic lifting in operation (i think that is what it is called)?

 

Yes I think it is mate, as most of England and Wales are in the warm sector atm, as air moves inland off the Irish Sea it rises, cools and condenses forming the rain bearing clouds, most heaviest on the upslopes facing the prevailing Sw'er.   Keeping an eye on the cold front and associated squall line currently over Eire, NI and into northern counties of England (Edit) , could be interesting .

Edited February 20, 2022 by StingJet

[StingJet]

21 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

Crikey. I was all set to go back to pottering around in my everyday life, assuming the worst storm in 32 years would be 'it' for a while. Then hot on its heels comes Franklin. This isn't of the same order but it's still going to be pretty wild for a time.

Gut feeling after Eunice was to leave all the blowaway'ble items including "the bins"  in the garage until we are "out of the woods" so to speak .. 70-80 peak gusts from the west to wnw here on Anglesey with Eunice, potentially similar early tomorrow morning

Edited February 20, 2022 by StingJet