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April 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    April CET statistics 

    __ the most recent 41 values are shown in three groups (13,15,13) -- bold is warmest, underlined medium values, italics coolest)

    __ the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages are in bold italics.


    19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)

    11.8 ... warmest April (2011)
    11.2 ... 2nd warmest April (2007)
    10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865)
    10.5 ... 4th warmest April (1943)

    10.4 ... 5th warmest Aprils (1798, 2020)

    10.3 ... 7th warmest Aprils (tied 1893, 1987)

    10.2 ... 2014 (tied 9th with 1794, 1796, 1944)

    10.1 ... 13th warmest Aprils (1783, 1869, 1945)

    10.0 ... 16th warmest Aprils (seven tied, including 2009)

     9.8 ... 2018

     9.6 ... 2003

     9.5 ... 1993

     9.4 ... 1999, 2004

     9.3 ... 2002

     9.1 ... 1995, 2019

     9.0 ... mean for 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?) and 1997, 2015  ... also average 2001-2021.

     8.9 ... average for 1991-2020 and 1992-2021 ... 2005, 2017 ... the 1991-2020 average is 8.95 and may be 9.0.

     ... ... ... my averages are for monthly CET, UKMO uses averages of mean max and min, can round off differently.

     8.8 ... 2010

     8.7 ... 1992

     8.6 ... 1982, 2006

     8.5 ... average for 1981-2010 and 1996

     8.3 ... 1985

     8.2 ... 1988

     8.1 ... average for 1971-2000 (and 20th century 1901-2000) (also 1971-2000) ... 1984, 1994

     8.0 ... average for 19th century 1801-1900 ... 1990

     7.9 ... average for 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800 and for all data 1659-2021... 1991, 2008

     ... ... ... ... all data average is 7.949 and fell from rounded 8.0 last year before the cold April 2021.

     7.8 ... 19812000  

     7.7 ... 19982001 

     7.5 ... 20132016 

     7.3 ... average for 1659-1700

     7.2 ... 2012

     7.0 ... lowest 30-yr average for April (6.96 1673-1702) _ 1991-2020 (8.95) is the highest. 

     6.8 ... 1983

     6.6 ... 1989

     6.4 ... 2021 (tied 32nd coldest, and t2nd coldest since 1922 (with 1941)

     5.8 ... 18th coldest (tied) 1986 (coldest since 1917)

     5.5 ... ninth coldest (tied) - 1922 with six other years
     5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799
     5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809
     4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)

    --0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)
    --0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (2nd, 1917 and 3rd, 1799)

    _________________________________________________________________

    Enter your forecast for APRIL 2022 by the penalty-free deadline of 00:00 1st of April (end of Thursday 31st March)

    ... or take a penalty during the first three days of April for a late entry.

     

    _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ================================================= _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

    EWP contest for April 2022

    The data set in use for the contest (Hadley EWP) with data from 1766 to 2021.

    Contest is based on a prediction of April precip in mm. These are the record and average values:

    149.9 __ 2012 __ wettest 1766 to 2021 

    142.6 __ 2000 __ 2nd wettest 

    139.0 __ 1782 __ was the record until 2000 (now third wettest)

    135.6 __ 1818 __ was 2nd wettest until 2000 (now fourth wettest)

    130.9 __ 1998 __ went from 3rd to 4th to 5th wettest April within 14 years.

     64.8 __ average 1981-2010

     63.2 __ average 1991-2020

     61.3 __ average 1992-2021

     58.6 __ average all data 1766 to 2021

     10.4 __ 2007 __ driest in 1981-2021 period (1984 was 10.7 and 2011 was 11.6)

     07.1 __ 1938 __ driest 1766 to 2021 

    recent April EWP values ... 2021_13.5 mm, 2020_35.7 mm, 2019_45.9 mm, 2018 _ 91.4 mm, 2017 _ 19.9 mm, 2016 _ 73.3 mm,

    2015 _ 28.1 mm, 2014 _ 63.8 mm, 2013_ 34.7 mm, 2012_ 149.9 mm, 2011_ 11.6 mm, 2010_ 30.1 mm, 2009_ 48.0 mm.

    ____________________________________ ^ ___________________________________

    Enter this contest by the same deadline, 10.0 points for closest forecast, 0.3 penalty points per day late (first three days of April).

    You can add your EWP forecast to your CET temperature forecast. 

    • Thanks 2
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Ice days, clear skies, blizzards. Summer: cool and dry
  • Location: Manchester

    8.4C and 55mm please 

    Not expecting a mild April, around average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    9.1c and 67mm please 

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    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

    10.2 and 59.4mm for me please

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    9.5c and 71mm please.

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    Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

    10.4°C and 61.2mm for me please. 

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      A yo-yo type of month with several quite cold incursions and wet snow falling even at low levels and quite far south, however very mild to warm at other times. Predominantly on the dry side except for an unseasonable lingering Low near the end of the month throwing fronts and rain off the North Sea. Cooler than average at 8.0.C and a dry 22mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    9.6c and 67mm rain please

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    Posted
  • Location: East coast side of the Yorkshire Wolds, 66m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, and plenty of warm sunny days!
  • Location: East coast side of the Yorkshire Wolds, 66m ASL

    9.1c and 60mm please

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Morning all,once again ECM showing the possibility of snow in April as it occurred last year in Oxford not really surprised as short very cold spells seem to happen more frequently in spring.

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Gonna go for 8.7*C and 60mm of precipitation please.

    A chilly start looking likely, perhaps with some sleet or snow. But then probably getting warm to very warm as we progress further into the month. Somewhat less settled than March I reckon, but still staying fairly dry overall. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    Close to average on both measures:

    8.2C and 69mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Bright weather. Warm sunny thundery summers, short cold winters.
  • Location: Hampshire
    On 19/03/2022 at 20:55, Roger J Smith said:

    April CET statistics 

    __ the most recent 41 values are shown in three groups (13,15,13) -- bold is warmest, underlined medium values, italics coolest)

    __ the 1981-2010 and 1991-2020 averages are in bold italics.


    19.7 ... warmest April daily mean (29th, 1775)

    11.8 ... warmest April (2011)
    11.2 ... 2nd warmest April (2007)
    10.6 ... 3rd warmest April (1865)
    10.5 ... 4th warmest April (1943)

    10.4 ... 5th warmest Aprils (1798, 2020)

    10.3 ... 7th warmest Aprils (tied 1893, 1987)

    10.2 ... 2014 (tied 9th with 1794, 1796, 1944)

    10.1 ... 13th warmest Aprils (1783, 1869, 1945)

    10.0 ... 16th warmest Aprils (seven tied, including 2009)

     9.8 ... 2018

     9.6 ... 2003

     9.5 ... 1993

     9.4 ... 1999, 2004

     9.3 ... 2002

     9.1 ... 1995, 2019

     9.0 ... mean for 14 yrs 1862-1875 (surprise?) and 1997, 2015  ... also average 2001-2021.

     8.9 ... average for 1991-2020 and 1992-2021 ... 2005, 2017 ... the 1991-2020 average is 8.95 and may be 9.0.

     ... ... ... my averages are for monthly CET, UKMO uses averages of mean max and min, can round off differently.

     8.8 ... 2010

     8.7 ... 1992

     8.6 ... 1982, 2006

     8.5 ... average for 1981-2010 and 1996

     8.3 ... 1985

     8.2 ... 1988

     8.1 ... average for 1971-2000 (and 20th century 1901-2000) (also 1971-2000) ... 1984, 1994

     8.0 ... average for 19th century 1801-1900 ... 1990

     7.9 ... average for 1961-1990, also 18th century 1701-1800 and for all data 1659-2021... 1991, 2008

     ... ... ... ... all data average is 7.949 and fell from rounded 8.0 last year before the cold April 2021.

     7.8 ... 19812000  

     7.7 ... 19982001 

     7.5 ... 20132016 

     7.3 ... average for 1659-1700

     7.2 ... 2012

     7.0 ... lowest 30-yr average for April (6.96 1673-1702) _ 1991-2020 (8.95) is the highest. 

     6.8 ... 1983

     6.6 ... 1989

     6.4 ... 2021 (tied 32nd coldest, and t2nd coldest since 1922 (with 1941)

     5.8 ... 18th coldest (tied) 1986 (coldest since 1917)

     5.5 ... ninth coldest (tied) - 1922 with six other years
     5.4 ... fifth coldest (tied) -- 1917 (coldest 20th century) also 1743,1770,1799
     5.2 ... third coldest (tied) -- 1782 and 1809
     4.7 ... coldest Aprils (1701 and 1837)

    --0.2 ... coldest April daily mean second half (19th, 1772)
    --0.5 ... coldest April daily mean (2nd, 1917 and 3rd, 1799)

    _________________________________________________________________

    Enter your forecast for APRIL 2022 by the penalty-free deadline of 00:00 1st of April (end of Thursday 31st March)

    ... or take a penalty during the first three days of April for a late entry.

     

    _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ================================================= _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

    EWP contest for April 2022

    The data set in use for the contest (Hadley EWP) with data from 1766 to 2021.

    Contest is based on a prediction of April precip in mm. These are the record and average values:

    149.9 __ 2012 __ wettest 1766 to 2021 

    142.6 __ 2000 __ 2nd wettest 

    139.0 __ 1782 __ was the record until 2000 (now third wettest)

    135.6 __ 1818 __ was 2nd wettest until 2000 (now fourth wettest)

    130.9 __ 1998 __ went from 3rd to 4th to 5th wettest April within 14 years.

     64.8 __ average 1981-2010

     63.2 __ average 1991-2020

     61.3 __ average 1992-2021

     58.6 __ average all data 1766 to 2021

     10.4 __ 2007 __ driest in 1981-2021 period (1984 was 10.7 and 2011 was 11.6)

     07.1 __ 1938 __ driest 1766 to 2021 

    recent April EWP values ... 2021_13.5 mm, 2020_35.7 mm, 2019_45.9 mm, 2018 _ 91.4 mm, 2017 _ 19.9 mm, 2016 _ 73.3 mm,

    2015 _ 28.1 mm, 2014 _ 63.8 mm, 2013_ 34.7 mm, 2012_ 149.9 mm, 2011_ 11.6 mm, 2010_ 30.1 mm, 2009_ 48.0 mm.

    ____________________________________ ^ ___________________________________

    Enter this contest by the same deadline, 10.0 points for closest forecast, 0.3 penalty points per day late (first three days of April).

    You can add your EWP forecast to your CET temperature forecast. 

     

    Will go for 7.5 and 130. Not good (comparable with 1998, 2000 and 2012) but basing it on current model runs. Colder than March, but little or no snow in the south.

    Edited by Summer8906
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

    8.1c & 64mm Cheers

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    Posted
  • Location: Islington
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing cold snowy winters & unsettled summers.
  • Location: Islington

    7.2degC and 113mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level

    7.7c 54mm please 

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    Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

    9.3C

    79MM

    Please.

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