April 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 7.9C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall 23.7mm 42.2% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

8.6c to the 16th

1.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 8.6c on the 16th*
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

 

*No data issued on the 12th

[LetItSnow!]

Warm spell surprisingly hasn’t got us into the 9s and the “Metcheck” figure is holding around 8.2 (I’ve found it’s been fairly accurate over the years. I usually use a mean of the both to gauge where the month will end up, before finalised data). With no especially warm weather in the foreseeable, potentially some cool easterlies, I’m feeling like 8s is a good bet but a sudden very warm or very cold end could still push it either way. Thinking back to July 2020 when it was looking like the high 14s/low 15s until the hot spell came out of nowhere and we ended up at 15.7. Likewise, September 2020 which was looking warm then flipped to unusually cold and ended up at 13.9. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 8.4C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Summer Sun]

8.9c to the 17th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 8.9c on the 17th*
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

 

*No data issued on the 12th

[summer blizzard]

Do we have any projections based on recent runs. Always hard to tell in April what an easterly flow will produce.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 8.6C +0.8C above normal.Rainfall up to 24.1mm 43% of the monthly average.

[Frigid]

Funny how it took until the 16th April to produce a warmer CET day than the 1st Jan

Edited April 18, 2022 by Frigid

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 8.7C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall 24.1mm 43% of the monthly average.

Just a slow upward pressure for this week.

[Summer Sun]

9.0c to the 18th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.0c on the 18th*
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

 

*No data issued on the 12th

[Earthshine]

Interesting how high the maximum CET has been this year.  February and March both had maximum CETs an unusual 3C above average.  The maximum CET for April is currently 2.3C above average.  A very warm Q1 across the UK (and also across the globe).  In fact it has been globally the 5th hottest Q1 despite the ongoing La Nina, and extraordinarily the top 5 hottest Q1 have all occurred since 2016(!!):

1. 2016

2. 2020

3. 2017

4. 2019

5. 2022

Edited April 19, 2022 by Earthshine

[Roger J Smith]

EWP update _ 28 mm to 18th and only 5-10 mm expected the rest of the way; totals may be lower than almost all forecasts (which means you can easily estimate your score, just count up how many forecasts are drier than yours, multiply that number by 0.2, and subtract from top score of 10 -- that should be approximately correct). 

CET estimate _ looks a bit cooler now, but not particularly cold, the GFS temperature projections would suggest a finish in the low to mid 8 range. 

May CET thread will be opened up later and should be there in the morning at latest. 

[Summer Sun]

9.0c to the 19th

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.0c on the 18th & 19th*
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

 

*No data issued on the 12th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 8.8C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Slow rise up until the end of the weekend when it's likely to stall or fall slightly. After that GFS indicates a chilly end to the month but that still could all change.

At moment would  suggest an end of around 8.6C to 8.8C and probably 8.3C to 8.6C for us in Sunny Sheffield.

Unlikely to make the top ten warmest Aprils here.

Edited April 20, 2022 by The PIT

[Summer Sun]

9.1c to the 20th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.1c on the 20th*
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

 

*No data issued on the 12th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.9C +0.8C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

 

[damianslaw]

Outlook looks average at best, perhaps slightly below for some parts thanks to persistent cloud, though this should keep temps at night higher. We finally see some proper cold synoptics but too late to deliver anything especially cold. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall unchanged at 24.1mm 43% of the monthly average.

Considering this week was supposed to be cooler but temperatures remained stubbornly above average so it remains too see if the cooler temperatures actually turn up or not. If they don't then there's a good chance of sneaking into the top ten warmest Aprils for us.

The day time temperatures are main reason once again we are in the + territory which seems to be this years trend.

 

[Summer Sun]

9.2c to the 21st

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.2c on the 21st*
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

 

*No data issued on the 12th

[Don]

On 21/04/2022 at 21:35, damianslaw said:

Outlook looks average at best, perhaps slightly below for some parts thanks to persistent cloud, though this should keep temps at night higher. We finally see some proper cold synoptics but too late to deliver anything especially cold. 

Too late for us, not Spain, though! 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP stuck on 28 mm and only 2-3 mm indicated now to end of month on GFS (8.5 days from 12z guidance). So for 30 mm this would be the scoring for the EWP contest. Will update this when we have a final number. If the guidance is correct there is little chance of any significant changes in this. 

April scoring and ranks can be seen at the end of each scoring row, the table is for the annual scoring which has now tightened up a bit with leader freeze not scoring very high. (all dependent on the dry finish of course) ...

Scoring is based on an outcome of 30 mm. This table shows the change in ranks for both points (second entry in brackets is last month's rank) and for average error (the smaller type size second rank after average error is last month's rank). There are fifty ranked forecasts for average error (minimum requirement three contests entered out of five). This is unchanged from March. Ties in March rankings for average error are not shown so there are some duplicates.

 

___ << Updated Scoring for the EWP contest (provisional for April) >> ___

Rank (prev)_ Forecaster __ Points ___ Avg err, rank (prev) __ Monthly ranks __ Apr score

01_(01)___ Freeze _________ 37.55 ____ 24.32 mm (01) (01) ___ 03 05 02 22 34 ___ 3.19 

02_(02)___ Polar Gael _____ 34.22 ____ 33.38 mm (10) (17) ___ 09 48 04 10 14 ___ 7.31    

03_(03)___ Bobd29 ________33.92 ____ 28.64 mm (03) (03) ___ 43 15 07 16 09 ___ 8.35

04_(11)___ The PIT ________ 33.10 ____ 27.88 mm (02) (04) ___ 52 01 26 14 05 ___ 9.34

05_(10)__ DiagonalRedLine _31.85 ____ 32.88 mm (05) (15) ___ 56 04 08 24 11 ___ 8.02

06_(06)___ Feb91Blizzard _ 31.31 ____ 33.08 mm (t06)(09) ___ 04 22 19 34 20 ___ 6.14 

07_(21)___ Neil N _________ 30.56 ____ 33.48 mm (09) (24) ___ 53 13 24 15 07 ___ 9.10 

08_(04)___Roger J Smith __ 30.55 ____ 30.92 mm (04) (02) ___ 21 03 36 21 25 ___ 5.01

09_(14)___dancerwithwings _29.68 ____ 34.48 mm (14) (20)___ 20 23 11 39 15 ___ 7.10     

10_(15)___ virtualsphere __ 29.34 ____ 33.48 mm (11) (12) ___ 31 11 45 12 16 ___ 6.88      

11_(09)___ Weather26 ____ 29.32 ____ 33.20 mm (08) (08) ___ 24 26 20 17 24 ___ 5.22 

12_(07)___ davehsug ______ 29.09 ____ 37.68 mm (t21)(22)___ 06 43 23 09 30 ___ 3.99       

13_(12)___ EdStone _______ 28.54 ____ 35.08 mm (16) (11) ___ 18 27 25 18 26 ___ 4.80     

14_(27)___ SLEETY_________ 28.26 ____ 38.68 mm (t24)(33) ___ 13 20 32 48 04 ___ 9.46         

15_(08)___ Mulzy __________ 28.13 ____ 35.28 mm (17) (10) ___ 19 25 43 t01 32 ___ 3.67 

16_(05)___ daniel* ________ 27.83 ____ 33.08 mm (t06)(05) ___ 30 07 42 05 38*___ 2.35 

17_(22)___ J 10 ____________ 27.76 ____ 34.52 mm (15) (19) ___ 26 28 14 35 18 ___ 6.64     

18_(13)___ Jeff C __________ 26.96 ____ 36.68 mm (19) (18) ___ 34 18 09 33 29 ___ 4.36     

t19_(31)___Frigid __________ 26.41 ____ 39.36 mm (26) (37) ___ 48 46 03 27 03 ___ 9.58         

t19_(23)___Reef ___________ 26.41 ____ 36.72 mm (20) (26) ___ 22 29 50 06 21 ___ 5.86    

21_(33)___ Norrance ______ 25.84 ____ 36.08 mm (18) (30) ___ 36 24 46 19 08 ___ 8.98    

22_(19)___ Mr Maunder ___24.46 ____ 34.28 mm (13) (06) ___ 39 02 35 25 37^___ 2.47     

23_(17)___ stargazer _____ 23.99 ____ 37.68 mm (t21) (14) ___ 40 19 16 23 42 ___ 1.62       

24_(25)___ seaside60 _____ 23.60 ____ 38.04 mm (23) (23) ___ 01 21 34 ---- 31 ___ 3.79       

t25_(20)___DR(S)NO ______ 23.28 ____ 38.68 mm (t24)(20)___ 35 38 06 20 43 ___ 1.50      

t25_(16)___Godber 1 _____ 23.28 ____ 40.92 mm (31) (13) ___ 16 06 28 46 46 ___ 0.90            

27_(18)___summer blizzard__23.07 ____ 44.88 mm (36) (25) ___ 54 14 33 t01 47___ 0.72               

28_(34)___ stewfox ________ 22.79 ____ 45.32 mm (t37)(42)___ 33 12 37 49 17 ___ 6.76               

29_(38)___weather-history_ 22.52 ____ 40.08 mm (28) (34) ___ 47 31 51 13 12 ___ 7.90         

30_(24)___ February1978 _ 22.25 ____ 39.92 mm (27) (27) ___ 08 30 21 44 41 ___ 1.80         

31_(47)___ syed2878 ______ 22.23 ____ 45.82 mm (40) (44) ___ 25 49 40 32 06 ___ 9.22                   

32_(26)___ Don ____________22.18 ____ 42.12 mm (33) (31) ___ 27 44 17 26 35 ___ 3.07                 

33_(42)__ProlongedSnowLover_21.08 ___ 41.94 mm (32) (39) ___ 23 39 54 28 13 ___ 7.52                   

34_(29)___noname_weather_18.43 ____ 47.08 mm (42) (29) ___ 32 08 44 37 49 ___ 0.36                          

35_(28)___ summer8906 __18.31 ____ 55.20 mm (48) (35) ___ ---- 42 13 08 50 ___ 0.18                                   

36_(37)___ rwtwm _________ 18.24 ____ 46.08 mm (41) (40) ___ 50 41 05 40 33 ___ 3.55                      

t37_(44)___jonboy _________ 17.78 ____ 45.68 mm (39) (40) ___ 38 32 30 45 27 ___ 4.59                    

t37_(53)__I Rem Atlantic 252_17.78 ____ 54.80 mm (47) (48) ___ 49 47 18 50 10 ___ 8.14                               

39_(30)___ LetItSnow! _____ 17.75 ____ 43.68 mm (35) (07) ___ 29 37 ---- 04 48 ___ 0.54                     

40_(45)___Emmett Garland_17.57____ 48.48 mm (43) (43) ___ 15 45 48 36 28 ___ 4.48                         

41_(39)___MidlandsIceAge_ 17.12 ____ 52.00 mm (45) (46) ___ 05 35 47 51 36^___ 2.59                               

42_(32)___ Kasim Awan ___ 16.68 ____ 37.25 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- 09 10 ---- ----- ___  - - -

43_(35)___ Leo97t _________ 15.94 ____ 33.70 mm (12) (16) ___ 41 36 01 ---- ---- ___  - - -     

44_(52)___ Steve B _________15.93 ____ 60.70 mm (50) (50) ___ 45 52 15 ---- 19 ___ 6.26                                         

45_(36)___BlastFromThePast _15.57 ____ 42.85 mm (34) (36) ___ 12 40 49 30 ---- ___ - - -                               

46_(41)___ summer18 _____15.34 ____ 56.88 mm (49) (47) ___ 17 51 29 42 44 ___ 1.26                                          

47_(43)___Stationary Front_15.15 ____ 45.32 mm (t37)(38)___ 44 34 38 31 40 ___ 2.07                                

48_(55)___ snowray ________14.82 ____ 49.58 mm (44) (45) ___ 51 17 55 47 23 ___ 5.42                                    

49_(40)___ stevew _________ 14.14 ____ 40.63 mm (29) (32) ___ 42 10 39 ---- ----___  - - -                            

50_(64)___ shillitocettwo ___ 13.85 ____ 53.56 mm (46) (49) ___ 55 50 52 41 01 ___10.00                                    

51_(46)___Durham Weather_13.04 ____ 23.55 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- 27 11 ---- ___ - - -

52_(54)___ Coldest Winter__11.44 ____ 40.63 mm (30) (28) ___ 28 ---- 57 29 39 ___ 2.19                        

53_(48)___ John88b _______ 11.20 ____ 30.10 mm ( -- ) ___ 10 ---- 41 ---- ---- ___  - - -

54_(49)__Kirkcaldy Weather_10.76____15.75 mm ( -- ) ___ 46 ---- ---- 07 ---- ___ - - -

55_(50)___ Wold Topper ___10.96 ______ 30.75 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- ---- 03 45 ___ 1.08

56_(51)___ Mapantz ________ 9.82 ______3.60 mm ( -- ) ___ 02 ---- ---- ---- ---- ___  - - -

57__(---) __ Pegg24 __________9.79 ______ 24.0 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- ---- ---- 02 ___ 9.79

58_(56)___ AWD ____________ 8.94 ______ 5.40 mm ( -- ) ___ 07 ---- ---- ---- ---- ___  - - -

t59_(t57)__ legritter ________ 8.06 ____ 27.80 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- 12 ---- ___  - - -

t59_(t57)__ Booferking _____ 8.06 ______ 7.40 mm ( -- ) ___ 11 ---- ---- ---- ___  - - -

61_(59)___ Typhoon John___ 7.70 ______ 8.60 mm ( -- ) ___ 14 ---- ---- ---- ___  - - -

62_(60)___Dunstable Snow_ 6.93 ____ 55.70 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- 16 ---- ---- ___  - - -

63_(61)___ Downburst ______ 6.02 ____ 36.20 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- 22 ---- ___  - - -

64_(68)___ Earthshine ______ 5.81 ____ 50.70 mm ( -- ) ___ 57 ---- ---- ---- 22 ___ 5.63

65_(62)___sukayuonsensnow __ 4.55 ____ 43.80 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- 31 ---- ---- ___  - - -

66_(63)___ sundog __________ 4.31 ____ 67.75 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- 33 53 ---- ---- ___  - - -

67_(65)__ froze were the days_3.80____ 21.40 mm ( -- ) ___ 37 ---- ---- ---- ---- ___  - - -

68_(66)___ thundershine___ 2.40 ____414.50 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- ---- 38 51 ___ 0.00

69_(67)___ DeepSnow ______ 1.40 ____ 39.00 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- ---- 43 ---- ___ - - -

70_(69)___Ross A Hemphill _ 0.06 ____ 61.40 mm ( -- ) ___ 58 ---- ---- ---- ---- ___  - - -

71_(70)___ Stephen W ______ 0.05 ____ 65.80 mm ( -- ) ___ ---- ---- 56 ---- ---- ___  - - -

===========================================================

_ _ _ _ contest entries _ _ _ _ _ _ ____________________ ___ 58 52 57 51 51

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Scoring for consensus and normals _ decimal rankings indicate relative position vs forecasters*

Ranks ______ Forecaster _____ Points ___ Avg error (ranks) _____ Monthly ranks ____________Apr score

 1.1 _(1.7)___ 1992-2021 avg __37.44 ___ 27.92 mm (2.1) (1.9) ___ 1.8 _19.8_17.3_15.7 14.1 __ 7.30

 1.1 _(1.7)___ 1991-2020 avg __37.42 ___ 28.23 mm (2.5) (1.9) ___ 1.8 _17.7_18.7_17.2 14.7 __ 7.15

 4.7 _(5.5)___ 1981-2010 avg __32.26 ___ 31.96 mm (4.5) (8.2) ___14.5 _17.2_23.7_25.5 15.8 __ 6.94

18.6_(19.7)__ consensus ______26.65 __ 36.48 mm (18.7)(18.8) __17.5 _22.0_28.0_25.5 26.0 __ 4.80

* e.g., 1.1 indicates between first and second rank, but closer to first than first, etc. 

(in fact the two recent normals are just about level with first place in the contest now)

=============================================================

 

Notes for April rankings: 

* daniel* loses two ranks due to 2d late penalty.

^ two others gain one rank relative to errors as a result.

 

 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 9.1C +0.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

If the cloud sticks around today that may cause a drop to be registered however the cooler day maybe canceled out by a warmer night.

[Summer Sun]

9.2c to the 22nd

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.2c on the 21st & 22nd*
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

 

*No data issued on the 12th

[Summer Sun]

9.3c to the 23rd

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 9.3c on the =23rd*
Current low this month 4.1c on the 1st

 

*No data issued on the 12th

[Earthshine]

Coldest April in some years going well then