(potential) Spring Snow + Wintry conditions 30th March 2022>

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Thinking its definitely worth setting this thread up, been a consistent signal for the arctic air to move in from the 30th main questions being the duration and exact direction ie North East or East (probably a mix) 

00z ECM and latest ICON are belters    UKMO looks great too 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GEM joining in  

ECM just out   

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Looks excellent on todays modelling  

UKMO 

ICON 

Gfs

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

18z GFS is   

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Getting the views of the way this setup could materialize. A wide area of snow moving south through the country then the arrival of sea effect snow showers as the flow goes more to the east / ENE   

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

I think the UKMO HD is seeing the convection from the north sea the best and the first area of snow ahead of that too 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Lets give a forecast a shot  

So where are we currently? we have a front which will be moving south west from north east Scotland, there's still a bit of uncertainty on exactly how heavy this will be but there's definitely a fair chance as it moves through Fife it *could* begin to pick up in intensity and at the same time cold air will begin to try undercut through the front slowly but surely changing it more to snow, I cant do a gif of the UKV but it illustrates this well 

start of the front coming into Fife  intensifies quite quickly  after the front progresses south we see the cold (really quite impressive for the last days of March) air moving across the country @shuggee -10 850hpa included   Radar will give the proper ideas of where the showers will be most frequent but the north sea should be crammed full given a temperature difference of between 15C - 17C that's more than ideal for sea effect snow shower development 

 and there's a impressive segment of low dewpoints modelled to move through too  

[shuggee]

Radar just now to compare to those models:

 

[Jo Farrow]

5 minutes ago, shuggee said:

Radar just now to compare to those models:

 

Certainly feels different out there this evening. cold with icy rain

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

I was believing the models were underestimating the convection and wrf nmm hadn't been too bullish but as we are moving into this setup it's now starting to increase the amount of showers modelled 

 

[Northernlights]

Snowing here after intense hail shower at 1.30am 

[Jo Farrow]

Snow here at sea level, big flakes now. Looks awesome whirling about. Settling on cold cars and glass

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Greatest intensity of the day so far

 

Amazing cloudscapes earlier