May 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

CET May averages and other statistics

___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2021 ... bold type, warmest third, italics middle third, underlined, coolest third of years ___

 

21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day.

15.1 ... (1833)
13.9 ... (1848)
13.8 ... (1758, 1788)
13.7 ... (1808)
13.6 ... (1727, 1992)

13.5 ... (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947)

13.4 ... 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952)

13.2 ... 2017, 2018

13.1 ... 1998

13.0 ... 1989

12.9 ... 1999

12.6 ... 1990, 2001

12.5 ... 2016, 2020

12.3 ... 2006

12.2 ... 2011, 2014

12.1 ... 2000, 2003, 2004, 2009 

12.0 ... ... ... highest 30-year average (1989-2018)

11.9 ... 1991-2020 (& 1992-2021) averages and 2001-2021 average and 1988, 2007 

11.8 ... 2002

11.7 ... 1981-2010 average and 2012

11.6 ... 1982, 1995

11.5 ... 1997

11.4 ... 1993, 2005 .. 1901-2000 average

11.3 ... 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average

11.2 ... 1981 ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2021 average of all data (11.23)

11.1 ... 1986, 2019 ... 1801-1900 average

10.9 ... 1985

10.8 ... 1991, 2015

10.7 ... 1994, 2010 ... 1659-1700 average

10.6 ... ... ... lowest 30-year average (1687-1716, to 1690-1719) _ also 10.65 (1873-1902)*

10.4 ... 2013

10.3 ... 1983

10.1 ... 1987, 2021

  9.9 ... 1984

  9.1 ... 1996 tied 13th coldest with two other years, the coldest in recent years)

  8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest

  8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest

  8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest

  8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest

  8.5 ... 1698 was coldest May

 

Extreme cold

 3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877

 2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

_____________________________________

* The secondary minimum came after two centuries of warmer Mays with 11.61 1820-49 the peak

Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Saturday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties.

______________________________________

 

England and Wales precip (EWP) contest 

Note: this is verified against the Hadley version of EWP (1766 to present),  

The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages. 

 

151.8 ___ max 1766-2021 (in 1773)

142.4 ___ second wettest in 1782 

140.7 ___ third wettest in 1967

122.7 ___ maximum 1981-2021 (2021) _ 118.4 in 2007 _ 115.2 in 1983

 66.3 ___ average 1992-2021

 64.2 ___ average 1766-2021 (all data)

 63.6 ___ average 1981-2010

 62.7 ___ average 1991-2020

 10.3 ___ minimum 1981-2021 (in 2020) _  (13.7 (1991) previous)

 07.9 ___ (min 1766-2021) in 1844 

 ________________________________________________________________

Recent ... 2021 _122.7 mm ... 2020 _ 10.3 mm ...  2019 _ 46.0 mm ...  2018 _ 51.9 mm ...  2017 _ 65.0 mm ...  2016 _ 61.7 mm ...

... 2015 _ 86.6 mm ...  2014 _ 102.8 mm ...  2013 _ 73.9 mm ...  2012 _ 57.4 mm ...  2011 _ 46.5 mm ...  2010 _ 38.3 mm ... ... 

Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.3 penalties per day late. Same deadlines apply as CET contest. 

 

... Good luck in both contests ... 

 

[Dancerwithwings]

I’ll be the first ....11.6c & 49mm cheers

[Frigid]

May will see a pattern change I reckon, with bouts of rain and cooler days. 

11.3c and 85mm rain 

[Bobd29]

Hi, 13C and 63.4mm for my guesses please.

[Polar Gael]

12.6°C and 77.4mm for me please. 

[NeilN]

11.9c and 77mm

[Sunny76]

Going for a cool first half, with many dull and cloudy days with longer spells of rain. 
 

Second half will see some proper summer warmth with a few days touching or exceeding 25c. Will be still be a dry heat with hot sunshine and a slight breeze, but gradually turning more humid and muggy with overnight storms during the last weekend of the month.

[Summer18]

12.8 & 77mm 

[BlueHedgehog074]

Bang on 12*C please and 35mm of rainfall. Cheers.

Just get a feeling it’ll be quite a dry month overall.

[Shillitocettwo]

  I see the majority of May seeing a total change from the current dry weather with a protracted run of Lows, some rattling through quickly, others lingering and parked up over the North Sea sending a prolonged feed of rain and chill. However, the last 10 days or so will see a real warm spell with temperatures moving from the 10-15.C highs most of the month will be stuck on to something in the high 20.Cs. Due to a lack of cold nights the CET will come out surprisingly warm at 13.4.C but with a wet 126mm.

[richie3846]

12.8c please

[The PIT]

Going for 11.8C and 51mm of rain.

[Earthshine]

11.8C 17mm

[Godber 1]

11.1c and 111mm please.

[Met.]

Despite some crap on the models at the moment, it will be the hottest May on record.

15.5°C, 50mm of rain (wet due to thunderstorms).

[SteveB]

12.9c & 56mm please.

[virtualsphere]

14.2C and 47mm.  Feeling like a hot one this year & the gap between 1833 and the rest has to be filled at some point!

[rwtwm]

10.8c and 55mm please

[Dancerwithwings]

On 20/04/2022 at 07:41, Dancerwithwings said:

I’ll be the first ....11.6c & 49mm cheers

Can I up my guess to 12.1c but the 49mm will stay the same 

With thanks, DWW

[Methuselah]

13C and 50mm please, Roger.

[syed2878]

For May I'm going 10.3C and 51MM rain.  Thank You.

[snowray]

11.4c and 75mm please.

[Weather-history]

11.9 and 65mm

[feb1991blizzard]

13.1c and 53mm please

[Wold Topper]

12.1c and 58mm please,