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May 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 11.8 +2.3C above normal. Rainfall 4.8mm 8.1% of the monthly table.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12.3c to the 7th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.6c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.3c on the 7th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12.4c to the 8th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.4c on the 8th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Once again, looking like another significantly above average month temp wise. Wouldn't be surprised if we were at the upper 14s in the latter third of the month. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 11.9C +2.3C above average. Rainfall unchanged.

The joint record May here is 2018 and 1992 when 13.8C was the average. The rise looks set to slow until the weekend when it should pick up pace a little. It may end up like last month where the averages caught up with the daily temperature with the month ending up close to normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Big News ...

I just stumbled across the new CET data. We've been hearing that they would be updating the data base and today that new data base is on-line. I found it because I went into the data base to support the following post that I planned to make. This is now incomplete and also based on what they are calling "legacy" instead of "current" data. A quick look around the data shows that there are minor changes made to the data base going back quite some way, I haven't reached the point of a full comparison but I can see that some monthly averages are changed by 0.1 or 0.2 C at least. Will be doing a more complete comparison of "legacy" and "current" data on daily time scale in the coming month. 

Anyway, this won't change a whole lot ... but I may add other months to the table in the coming days. 

...

 

If we do see higher running CET values this is a table of the highest values which includes any instances of running CET above 13 C in the second half of May ... The table is arranged in order of finishing CET for those years that have daily data available. Maximum running CET values before end of months are shown in italic (or bold for 1833).

The max for 2008 was on the 12th (15.1). 

 

DATE __ 1833 __1848 __1788 __1992 __1952 __2008

16 May _ 15.2 __ 13.9 __ 12.5 __ 11.4 __ 12.3 __ 14.3

17 May _ 15.4 __ 14.0 __ 12.4 __ 11.3 __ 12.7 __ 14.1

18 May _ 15.5 __ 14.0 __ 12.5 __ 11.4 __ 13.1 __ 13.9

19 May _ 15.4 __ 13.9 __ 12.6 __ 11.7 __ 13.3 __ 13.6

20 May _ 15.4 __ 13.7 __ 12.7 __ 12.0 __ 13.3 __ 13.3

21 May _ 15.4 __ 13.7 __ 12.7 __ 12.1 __ 13.3 __ 13.2

22 May _ 15.4 __ 13.8 __ 12.9 __ 12.4 __ 13.3 __ 13.2

23 May _ 15.5 __ 13.7 __ 13.1 __ 12.6 __ 13.4 __ 13.3

24 May _ 15.5 __ 13.8 __ 13.3 __ 12.8 __ 13.5 __ 13.3

25 May _ 15.6 __ 13.8 __ 13.5 __ 13.0 __ 13.5 __ 13.3

26 May _ 15.5 __ 14.0 __ 13.7 __ 13.2 __ 13.6 ___ 13.2

27 May _ 15.4 __ 13.9 __ 13.9 __ 13.3 __ 13.6 ___ 13.2

28 May _ 15.3 __ 13.9 __ 14.1 __ 13.5 __ 13.6 ___ 13.2

29 May _ 15.2 __ 14.0 __ 13.9 __ 13.5 __ 13.5 __ 13.2

30 May _ 15.1 __ 13.9 __ 13.8 __ 13.6 __ 13.4 __ 13.3

31 May _ 15.1 __ 13.9 __ 13.8 __ 13.6 __ 13.4 __ 13.3

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Summer Sun, you'll need this link now ...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean2022.html

They may have a new data base but the standard period remains 1961-90. 

The tables that I have posted for 1981-2010 over the past few years will now need to be revised. For now would suggest using what is available as this revision (by me at least) won't happen for at least the rest of this month. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12.5c to the 9th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.5c on the 9th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 12.1C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12.7c to the 10th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.7c on the 10th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 12.3C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall up to 4.9mm 8.2% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12.8c to the 11th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.8c on the 11th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
On 11/05/2022 at 13:25, prolongedSnowLover said:

What’s the chances on finishing above 15c this month now ?

Unless we get a cool spell at the end of the month, I can see this May being the first 14C CET month. Conversely if it stays warm or we get a heatwave, it could beat the 1833 record. Hoping that doesn't happen 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 12.4C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall up to 9.5mm 15.9% of the monthly average.

Today will see the first drop in the average.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12.7c to the 12th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.9c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.8c on the 11th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
18 hours ago, Frigid said:

Unless we get a cool spell at the end of the month, I can see this May being the first 14C CET month. Conversely if it stays warm or we get a heatwave, it could beat the 1833 record. Hoping that doesn't happen 

CET is going to get very very warm over the next week. Minimum temperatures are looking very mild for the foreseeable and daytime temperatures will be a good 3-5°C above average for many places.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield is back down to 12.3C +2.2C above normal. Rainfall 9.5mm 15.9% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
6 hours ago, Earthshine said:

CET is going to get very very warm over the next week. Minimum temperatures are looking very mild for the foreseeable and daytime temperatures will be a good 3-5°C above average for many places.

 

I think 14c looks quite possible now with some very warm days ahead next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

12.8c to the 13th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.8c on the 11th & 13th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield back to 12.4C +2.2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP update ... 16.4 mm to 12th, nothing added on 13th. GFS ten-day projections about 35 mm on average, some local 70 mm amounts shown in east Midlands and Yorkshire, lower amounts in southeast. So around 51 mm by 24th, then last seven days (from latest guidance) appear to be dry. There would be some uncertainty attached to the 35 mm addition as a lot of it comes from heavy showers depicted next Friday 20th which could turn out overdone quite easily. So at this point would say 40-50 mm fits the range of most probable outcomes well. 

Notes on EWP _ With the CET changes, a new reporting regime seems to be underway for EWP also. The tracker is now giving a value to the nearest tenth instead of rounded off, and there is no mention of final values to be posted to tables on 5th, so will have to see how this month goes, perhaps we will have our final numbers in tables on the 2nd now (the tracker is still a day behind as indicated in today's report). Or perhaps they will post values on the 2nd and then adjust them on the 5th. Will have to go back over tables to see if they have changed values already posted (they normally do that for about three months after first postings, these adjustments are ignored in our contest scoring). But perhaps they have done an overhaul of the data there, I don't think so. 

As to future CET, this month has a very good chance of finishing second to 1833, and an outside chance of matching or exceeding it. There are only two days ahead that look close to normal or below slightly, and several that look close to record warmth. If we said the average today to 31st would be 16 then the final outcome will be around 14.6 C. Now, with this new CET regime in place, I don't think they will continue to provide "legacy" CET data as of 1 May, and I don't know if these numbers we are getting for May 2022 are "final v2.0" or "provisional v2.0" subject to later adjustments, does anyone know? ... there is only one option available on the diagnostics page now. So what I am saying is, perhaps no more end of month adjustments, what you see is what you get? Or maybe without having two sets of numbers, the final values get tweaked in the one available table? We will have to keep an eye on what happens. 

If there was no downward adjustment looming then it could get pretty interesting in the last week as we perhaps make some threatening moves on 1833. Daily records nowadays are in the 18.5 to 20 range and in fact 1833 holds records for 15th (20.0) and 17th (19.7). In between is 20.0 from 1808. So the real warmth of mid-May seems to be mostly a 19th century deal, records for the week ahead stay well back in the past, including 1952, 1916, 1918, 1922 and 1953. The only modern record in late May is a tie where 2017 tied 1784 on the 26th. Then it's 1780, 1781, 1847, 1944 and 1947 providing records through to 3 June. (this is still the case after the CET updates, working through the new records in that thread about the changes). Today's (14 May) record was 18.8 from 1992. Despite the warming of modern climate, that is the only exclusive daily record held from 10 May to well on into June from a year after 1980. The averages at this time of year may have warmed but the extremes have not. The last time a day in May averaged 20 C was in 1953 and there were a dozen such days before that. Perhaps we will see a change in that in coming days although the coming warmth looks more like 17-18 range just below most daily records now. 

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