May 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

10 hours ago, kieranweatherfan said:

What was the may 2021? Just for comparison 

Somewhat lower!

[kold weather]

Do we have date records for this week? 

[LetItSnow!]

Very warm this week but when watching Gavin’s ten day forecast earlier I noticed there was hints of an outside chance of something cooler setting in around the 20th, but that’s a long way away and in the short term it looks to be a very warm if not unexceptional week. If warmth persists into the final third of May, then we could be facing second hottest - but if we see a cool down (though May is a rapidly warming month anyway) then maybe upper 12s or into the 13s. I still think there’s a lot to play for but I’m not confident on a 14+C finish just yet. 

[Roger J Smith]

5 hours ago, kold weather said:

Do we have date records for this week? 

I just posted them in the discussion thread about the new CET data base, the legacy version daily records can be seen in this thread on page three in a table, and the new version date records are mostly similar if not identical.

The daily records for 15th (20.0) and 17th (19.7) were set in 1833 (the only days to set records). In between is another 20.0 dating back to 1808. Beyond the 17th most of the records are close to 19 C and are set well back in the daily data. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 12.6C +2.3C above normal. Rainfall 10.5mm 17.6% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

12.9c to the 14th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.9c on the 14th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

[Summer Sun]

13.1c to the 15th

2.5c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.1c on the 15th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

[Scorcher]

Looks to me like this could go down as one of those very warm (CET wise) yet forgettable months. May 1999 is another May that stands out as being that way. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 12.9C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall 22.9mm 38.9% of the monthly average.

 

[mb018538]

22 hours ago, Scorcher said:

Looks to me like this could go down as one of those very warm (CET wise) yet forgettable months. May 1999 is another May that stands out as being that way. 

Dull and warm....and even worse in that regard than May 1999 at the moment! (Pic from Dan Harris @roostweather)

[Summer Sun]

13.3c to the 16th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 16th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

[Frigid]

If the ECM is correct then it's almost certain we're gonna see the first 14C CET May. Surprised it's taken this long to happen tbh

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Dull and warm....and even worse in that regard than May 1999 at the moment! (Pic from Dan Harris @roostweather)

Is that for the UK as a whole? Seems to be well below the current CET value on that graph

[Earthshine]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

Dull and warm....and even worse in that regard than May 1999 at the moment! (Pic from Dan Harris @roostweather)

What an absolutely fantastic month May 2020 was.  Just in a league of its own in terms of sunshine.

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Is that for the UK as a whole? Seems to be well below the current CET value on that graph

It's the whole UK rather than CET - hence the lower value.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

What an absolutely fantastic month May 2020 was.  Just in a league of its own in terms of sunshine.

Yes, May 2022 has not been a patch on 2020, despite it likely to be a warmer month! 

[summer blizzard]

It's not been worthy of even a 13C+ feel to be fair but we've been spoilt recently by most of our high CET anomolies around summer coming from wonderful months.

If we think back to April 09, that was a similar month to this. Dry, cloudy but muggy and warm.

Edited May 17, 2022 by summer blizzard

[damianslaw]

Still a good 2 weeks to go yet so I would caution expectations for a 14 + plus CET month. Indeed a cooler spell likely by end of the week, if we inject cooler air from NW then expect lower mins which will dent CET conversely if maintain more of an airstream between west and south then they will hold. We've had synoptics that bring those very mild winter months but often feel dank chilly with perpetual drizzle or rain and low cloud. Not a fan of warm wet dank months, high pressure and sunshine combined with dry warm please.. perceptions of warm months May to Sept are those that combine sunshine dry weather and high maxima not consistent warmer than average temps and  either average or wetter than average or average or below average sunshine. 

Edited May 17, 2022 by damianslaw

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Still a good 2 weeks to go yet so I would caution expectations for a 14 + plus CET month. Indeed a cooler spell likely by end of the week, if we inject cooler air from NW then expect lower mins which will dent CET conversely if maintain more of an airstream between west and south then they will hold. We've had synoptics that bring those very mild winter months but often feel dank chilly with perpetual drizzle or rain and low cloud. Not a fan of warm wet dank months, high pressure and sunshine combined with dry warm please.. perceptions of warm months May to Sept are those that combine sunshine dry weather and high maxima not consistent warmer than average temps and  either average or wetter than average or average or below average sunshine. 

I don't think  big dent is likely at all now given the stage we're at in what is a warming month. I find the last week of May to be one of the most reliable of the year for being settled and warm so I would not be surprised at all if the month ends with a very warm spell that actually increases the CET.

I would certainly choose a warm, dull, wet month over a cold one, that's for sure.

[reef]

Has there been an east/west split this month? Its just I keep hearing talk of it being a dull May, but we're on 103 hours of sunshine so far and the next three days at least look very sunny.

We've only had 14.8mm of rain aswell, so its been dry too.

The last four months have been exceptional for sunshine here. January and February had over 100 hours each, March had 194 hours and April 218 hours.

Our mean currently stands at 12.9C to yesterday. The 42 year record is 13.2C set in 2017.

Edited May 18, 2022 by reef

[Scorcher]

5 hours ago, reef said:

Has there been an east/west split this month? Its just I keep hearing talk of it being a dull May, but we're on 103 hours of sunshine so far and the next three days at least look very sunny.

We've only had 14.8mm of rain aswell, so its been dry too.

The last four months have been exceptional for sunshine here. January and February had over 100 hours each, March had 194 hours and April 218 hours.

Our mean currently stands at 12.9C to yesterday. The 42 year record is 13.2C set in 2017.

It's been very dull on this side of the country- 69 hours up to yesterday at my local station. That's mainly due to an extremely dull first 4 days- we only had 1 hour of sunshine in those first 4 days and only 13.7 hours in the first week of the month. Things have picked up since then thankfully but still running well below normal.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 13.3C +2.7C above normal. Rainfall 25.2mm 42.3% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

Not sure what they are doing in the background but I can only see data to the 16th, nothing for the 17th, and now the website says that the monthly mean is "provisionally" 13.1 C. The math is correct, the total is 209.0 which divided by 16 is 13.06. 

Also the new format now says the value is provisional (for May 2022) which is a word I did not see last time I looked. In my own case I had trouble connecting to the data base on 16th and 17th but Summer Sun was able to get updated numbers, which appear to be 0.2 higher than these numbers. 

So I don't know if we are sliding back into the old system of provisional values updated at the end of each month, or what's happening. I assume that legacy CET has terminated, not sure how they could update a legacy data base. In any case the changes made Jan to Apr of 2022 were mostly in the range of -0.1 to +0.1 from the legacy so they weren't that concerned with the accuracy of their product in recent years, the changes in fact since about 2009 were never very large. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP was 29.0 mm to 16th and probably added about 6 mm on 17th, to 35 mm. The ten-day GFS appears to provide 20-25 mm more, on average, so the total quite late in the month will be around 55-60 mm, fairly normal. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 13.2C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall up to 27.4mm 46% of the monthly average.