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May 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

13.3c to the 17th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 16th & 17th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Location: Swindon
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

13.3c to the 17th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.3c on the 16th & 17th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

I wonder if this will be the peak? Looking ahead, temps look fairly average, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a very small slide downward before the month is out. I can't see where this 14c is coming from that people have been talking about. Temperatures would need to rise significantly in the last few days of the month to achieve that I suspect.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
28 minutes ago, richie3846 said:

I wonder if this will be the peak? Looking ahead, temps look fairly average, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a very small slide downward before the month is out. I can't see where this 14c is coming from that people have been talking about. Temperatures would need to rise significantly in the last few days of the month to achieve that I suspect.

Yep looks like it'll cool down a bit.  However just purely anecdotally May often delivers in the very final stages of the month so who knows?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
2 hours ago, richie3846 said:

I wonder if this will be the peak? Looking ahead, temps look fairly average, I wouldn't be surprised if there is a very small slide downward before the month is out. I can't see where this 14c is coming from that people have been talking about. Temperatures would need to rise significantly in the last few days of the month to achieve that I suspect.

Should be another rise today with it being another above average day/night across the CET zone

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

13.6c to the 19th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.6c on the 19th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

13.6c to the 19th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.6c on the 19th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

I suspect that will be the peak for this month now.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
2 minutes ago, Don said:

I suspect that will be the peak for this month now.

Quite a cool day in the CET zone. Maybe a slight drop over the next few days and stabilising around 13c 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Frigid said:

Quite a cool day in the CET zone. Maybe a slight drop over the next few days and stabilising around 13c 

Hopefully it will be around 13C at the end of the month. 

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Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Location: Swindon
4 hours ago, Frigid said:

Quite a cool day in the CET zone. Maybe a slight drop over the next few days and stabilising around 13c 

Temps have reached 15 to 18 today, probably around average, and a mild might forecast tonight. I suspect the the figure will not move very much at the moment. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 13.4C +2.6C above normal. Rainfall still at 27.4mm 46% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Odd month the current CET belies how the month has felt so far..not a par at all with the likes of 2018 or 2020 at this stage, far far from them.. I'm not a fan at all of southerly or southwesteely airstreams in the warmer months of the year, far too much cloud and often rain or drizzle. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

13.6c to the 20th

2.9c above the 61 to 90 average
2.5c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.6c on the 19th & 20th
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield still at 13.4C +2.5C degrees above normal. Rainfall at 28.4mm 47.7% of the monthly average.

Probably after a stall after monday perhaps with a slight drop. Currently 2nd warmest on record for us. looking at the latest GFS the only push for higher tempertaures look to be for the night time temperatures. We may therefore be very close to final figure but that can all change in a few model runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Swindon
  • Location: Swindon
2 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Will probably struggle to reach 14c with all the cool weather predicted for next week.

Mid 13s ?

Yes I was looking at a few forecasts on the met office, they do tend to underplay day temps by a degree or so, I reckon mid 13s also. Of course a warm up in the closing days of the month could tip it towards 14 but it would have to be a real hot spell to make that much of an impact. I suspect the final figure to not be that different to what it is now.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffeild still at 13.4C +2.4C above average. Rainfall 28.4mm 47.7% of the monthly average

Local forecast shows temepratures average around 12.5C for this week however they tend to under do temperatures so probably be around 13.5C so little change expected.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Probably going to end up with a marked warmer than average May without it ever being particularly very warm apart from 17 May in SE. Mind lots of maxes in the high teens and low 20s for SE parts is very good going for May. Just rare for notably warm May's not to deliver much widespread heat at some point, mid to high 20s for most not just the few.. think 2018 example and 1992 and 2020. 

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

13.6c to the 21st

2.98c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.6c on the 19th, 20th, & 21st
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 13.6C +2.5C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Still expecting the average not to alter much this week.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

13.6c to the 22nd

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.6c on the 19th, 20th, 21st & 22nd
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Using the latest gfs run and local forecast puts us finishing on 13.3C which would be 1.3C above normal. This would be the joint 3rd warmest on record for us.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

No change for Sunny Sheffield. 13.6C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall 28.4mm 47.7% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

13.6c to the 23rd

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 13.6c on the 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd & 23rd
Current low this month 10.9c on the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP current estimate is 46 mm to this point (from 40.4 mm reported to 22nd, est 5-6 mm since then) and 52-54 mm at the end of the month (GFS 7.5 day projection is mostly in the 2-5 mm range with a few higher pockets). 

CET looks likely to stall out for several days possibly losing 0.1 or so, then another surge at the end could bring it to 13.8 or 13.9 to finish, not sure how they are going to handle adjustments now in the new system. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Will wait for the confirmed EWP to do any scoring as there are quite a few forecasts very close to the likely outcome and the range of scores is a bit higher than I would like to adjust later. Here again I am not sure if the "new regime" will eliminate that wait between 2nd and 5th for confirmed values, as they now have a more precise value to one decimal place in the tracker and no more reference to values posted on the 5th on their display. We'll find out as we go along in both CET and EWP data handling matters this month.

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