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May 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
On 04/05/2022 at 20:39, Daniel* said:

Oh jeez I forgot 13C and 50mm thanks seem my entry will only be for fun  

That was pretty good, it won't hurt you as much to miss a CET month as your average score is factored into scoring, while in the EWP it is pretty much based on total score. If you had entered, with a four-day penalty your score would have been around 3.75 (3.70 on the system used except that with you included scoring intervals would have been smaller). That comes from a raw score of 4.90 minus 1.20. Instead of having 27.83 points for 27th place, you would have 31.53 for 20th.

Despite being quite close to the outcome, a lot of forecasts were in May, and the scoring per error unit is not that good compared to other months. 

So I will make a note in the excel file and in future months I will let you know by asterisk in the scoring table what your total score would be. Also with that forecast, your average error would have dropped from 32.82 mm (19th) to 28.82 (6th) so there again I will track that differential and let you know. 

==============================

final bit of business, annual and monthly EWP scores already posted above but here are the

FINAL SPRING EWP SCORING LEADERS

Rank _ Forecaster ______ Points __ Avg error 

_01 ___ The PIT _________ 22.58 ___ 14.0

_02 ___ Frigid ___________ 22.36 ___ 17.7

_03 ___ weather-history_ 21.96 ___ 15.1

_04 ___ Bobd29 _________ 21.81 ___ 15.2

_05 ___ Wold Topper ___ 20.96 ___ 20.3

_06 ___ prolongedSL ___ 20.61 ___ 18.5

_07 ___ Reef ____________ 18.69 ___ 17.5

_08 ___ NeilN ___________ 18.67 ___ 18.1

_09 ___ syed2878 _______ 18.62 ___ 20.0

_10 ___ virtualsphere ___ 18.42 ___ 18.3

_11 ___ Don _____________ 17.64 ___ 24.1

_12 ___ Mulzy ___________ 17.37 ___ 20.0

_13 ___ Polar Gael ______ 17.24 ___ 18.4

_14 ___ Norrance _______ 16.40 ___ 23.0

_15 ___ EdStone _________16.22 ___ 23.3 

_16 ___ Sleety ____________16.18 ___ 28.5

_17 ___ Feb1991Blizzard_ 16.09 ___ 24.3

_18 ___ Mr Maunder _____15.98 ___ 25.0

_19 ___ davehsug ________15.92 ___ 21.7

_20 ___ summer8906 ____15.84 ___ 36.5

_21 ___ SteveB (2 of 3) ___ 15.34 ___ 19.3

_22 ___ DiagonalRedLine_15.03 ___ 24.3

_23 ___ DR(S)NO _________ 14.78 ___ 26.1

_24 ___ Emmett Garland _ 14.60 ___ 27.8

_25 ___ rwtwm ___________ 14.24 ___ 29.7

_26 ___ freeze ____________ 13.84 ___ 26.0

_27 ___ dancerwithwings _ 13.81 ___ 26.7

_28 ___ JeffC ______________ 13.74 ___ 27.5

_29 ___ Stationary Front __ 13.41 ___ 27.7

_30 ___ seaside60 (2/3) ___ 13.03 ___ 17.6

t31 ___ Roger J Smith _____ 12.94 ___ 26.7

t31 ___ Kirkcaldy Wx (2/3) _12.94 ____ 6.4

_33 ___ Weather 26 _______ 12.74 ___ 28.1

_34 ___ J 10 ________________ 12.48 ___ 27.1

_35 ___ summer blizzard __ 12.00 ___ 36.0

_36 ___ shillitocettwo ______ 11.95 ___ 38.3

_37 ___ noname_weather __11.92 ___ 40.0

_38 ___ daniel* (2/3) _______ 11.53*___25.6*

_39 ___ LetItSnow (2/3) ______9.92 ___ 41.7

_40 ___ Pegg24 (1/3) _________9.79 ___ 22.7

_41 ___ snowray _____________9.11 ___ 35.8

_42 ___ I Rem Atl 252 ________8.82 ___ 47.5

_43 ___ Midlands Ice Age ____8.27 ___ 44.3

_44 ___ Durham Wx (1/3) ___ 7.94 ____ 8.5

_45 ___ thundershine (2/3) _ 7.66 ___ 22.2

_46 ___ Stewfox (2/3) _______ 7.16 ___ 53.1

_47 ___ Stargazer (2/3) ______ 7.13 ___ 37.1

_48 ___ February1978 _______ 6.22 ___ 35.1

_49 ___ Coldest Winter (2/3)_ 6.19 ___ 38.6

_50 ___ Earthshine (2/3) _____ 6.01 ___ 40.3

_51 ___ Jonboy _______________5.91 ___ 41.1

_52 ___ summer18 ___________5.19 ___ 38.5

_53 ___ BlastFromThePast(1)_ 3.98 ___ 25.5

_54 ___ Godber1 _____________ 2.06 ___ 56.5

_55 ___ Deep Snow (1/3) _____ 1.40 ___ 45.5

_______________

*With ineligible May score of 3.70 and error 8.8 mm, changes to 22nd rank scoring and average error 20.0 mm.

=====================

Now that official CET scores are available, will post the combined scoring at the halfway mark of the contest some time in next day or two. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Combined CET and EWP annual scoring positions

 

At the halfway point of the annual contest, these are the combined ranks in CET and EWP contests. For the few that only enter CET, their average is simply their CET contest rank and they appear in the table in that position. The second rank number applies only to the positions of those with entries in both contests. I make one slight modification to CET scoring ranks, which are shown in two tables, the qualifiers who have missed no more than two contests, and the non-qualifiers who are in a separate table. I compare their total points and rank them by decimal places between the officially ranked CET entrants. This is only an issue for a handful who might have entered 2-3 out of 6 contests and done reasonably well in EWP. The first entry in the table to which this applies is Wold Topper who has three entries and a total CET score that is between those of 33rd and 34th in the qualifying portion. 

I do not show anyone in these combined ranks if they entered only 1 contest so that might explain any missing ranks in EWP. 

Key: Ranks show the combined contest ranking. Those in brackets are CET only. The second column under Ranks refers to all CET-EWP combined. Then the actual ranks in each contest appear under CET and EWP. After the forecaster name is the average of those two. If it's only the CET rank, that entry is the CET rank only, in brackets. Where any forecaster has fewer than six entries, the number is in brackets after their name. Two numbers would indicate the number of entries, where different, in CET and EWP contests.

 

Ranks __ CET_EWP__Forecaster ________ Average Rank

(01) _ --- __ 01 _ --- ___ Richie3846 ___________ (1.0)

_02 _01 __ 02 _ 01 ___ Freeze ________________ 1.5

_03 _ 02 __ 05 _ 04 ___ Feb1991Blizzard _____ 4.5

t04 _t03__ 14 _ 03 ___ The PIT ________________ 8.5

t04 _t03__ 10 _ 07 ___ dancerwithwings _____ 8.5

_06 _ 05 __ 09 _ 09 ___ Ed Stone ______________ 9.0

_07 _ 06 __ 04 _ 15 ___seaside60 __________ 9.5

(08) _ --- __ 11 _ --- ___ damianslaw _______ (11.0)

_09 _ 07 __ 23 _ 02 ___ Bobd29 ______________ 12.5

_10 _ 08 __ 07 _ 20 ___ J10 _________________ 13.5

_11 _ 09 __ 08 _ 21 ___ DR(S)NO ___________ 14.5

_12 _ 10 __ 20 _ 10 ___ DiagonalRedLine ___15.0

_13 _ 11 __ 27 _ 05 ___ Polar Gael ____________16.0

t14 _ 12 __ 06 _ 32 ___ February1978 ______ 19.0

(t14)_ --- __ 19 _ --- ___ Mark Bayley __________(19.0)

_16 _ 13 __ 34 _ 06 ___ Frigid _________________ 20.0

_17 _ 14 __ 12 _ 29 ___ Norrance ___________20.5 

_18 _ 15 __ 24 _ 18 ___ Don ________________21.0

_19 _ 16 __ 03 _ 40 ___ Stationary Front ____21.5

t20 _ t17 __31_ 13 ___ Mr Maunder ________22.0

t20 _ t17 __22 _ 22 ___ Reef ________________22.0 

_22 _ 19 __ 17 _ 28 ___ noname_weather___ 22.5

_23 _ 20 __ 13 _ 33 ___ SteveB (5) __________ 23.0

_24 _ 21 __ 25 _ 23 ___ Weather26 _________ 24.0

_25 _ 22 __ 39 _ 11 ___ virtualsphere _______25.0

t26 _ t23__ 28 _ 24 __prolongedSnowLover_26.0

t26 _ t23__ 21 _ 31 ___ summer8906 (5) ___ 26.0

t28 _ t25 __ 45 _ 08 ___ SLEETY _______________26.5

t28 _ t25 __ 18 _ 35 ___ summer blizzard __ 26.5

_30 _ 27 __ 16 _ 38 ___ stewfox (5) _________27.0

_31 _ 28 __ 43 _ 12 ___ NeilN ______________ 27.5

_32 _ 29 __ 40 _ 16 ___ davehsug __________ 28.0

(33) _ ---___(29)_ -- ___ Summer Sun _______(29.0)

(34) _ ---___(30)_ -- ___ Duncan McAlister __(30.0)

_35 _ 30 __ 42 _ 19 ___ Mulzy ______________ 30.5

_36 _ 31 __ 36 _ 26 ___ syed2878 __________ 31.0

_37 _ 32 __ 51_ 14 ___ JeffC ________________32.5

_38 _ 33 __ 26 _ 42___I Remember Atl 252__34.0

t39 _ t34 __15 _ 54 ___ coldest winter (4) __ 34.5

t39 _ t34 __33 _ 36 ___ Stargazer (5) _______ 34.5

_41 _ 36 __ 53 _ 17 ___ Roger J Smith ______ 35.0

_42 _ 37 __ 37 _ 34 ___ Emmett Garland ___ 35.5

t43 _ t38 __23.5_51 __ stevew (3) __________ 37.25 

t43 _ t38 __33.5_41 __ Wold Topper (3) ____ 37.25

_45 _ 40 __ 48 _ 27 ___ daniel* (5) _________ 37.5 

_46 _ 41 __ 29.5_47 __ Kasim Awan (2) _____38.25 

t47 _ t42__ 52 _ 25 ___ weather-history ____38.5

t47 _ t42__ 47 _ 30 ___ rwtwm _____________38.5

t47 _ t42__ 38 _ 39 ___ Midlands Ice Age ___38.5

_50 _ 45 __ 32 _ 46 ___ snowray ___________ 39.0

_51 _ 46 __ 45 _ 37 ___ Godber 1 __________ 41.0

_52 _ 47 __ 41 _ 45 ___ summer18 ________ 43.0

_53 _ 48 __ 35 _ 52 ___ shillitocettwo ______ 43.5 

_54 _ 49 __ 37.5_50__Kirkcaldy Weather (3)_43.75

_55 _ 50 __ 44 _ 44 ___Let It Snow ! (4) _____ 44.0

_56 _ 51 __ 43.5_53__Durham Weather (2)__48.25

_57 _ 52 __ 55 _ 43 ___ Jonboy _____________ 49.0

(58) _ --- __(49) _ --- ___ Walsall Wood Snow _(49.0)

(59) _ --- __(50) _ --- ___ Kentish Man ________(50.0)

_60 _ 53 __ 52.5_48 __ Leo97t (3) __________ 50.25

_61 _ 54 __ 34.5_68__Froze were the Days(2)_51.25

_62 _ 55 __ 54 _ 49__Blast From The Past (4)_51.5

_63 _ 56 __ 55.5_55 __  John88b (2) __________ 55.25

_64 _ 57 __ 49.5_64 __ Earthshine (3) ________ 56.75

_65 _ 58 __ 49.5_67 __ sundog (2) ___________ 58.25

_66 _ 59 __ 55.5_62 __ Thundershine (2) _____58.75

__________________________

(CET decimal ranks, see note above table, apply to those with 2-3 entries ... all below 55th are 55.5)

(all those with only 1 entry in both or either contest not shown)

 

 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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