Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

So using a little knowledge I picked up from UKWW - the storms are likely to have the updraught near the front - so I would assume that means quite a clear view of activity as the storm approaches (as you’re not looking through a deep shaft of rain)

This assumes:

A) I’m reading things properly

B) I’m analysing things properly

C) it actually rains

D) there is a storm

[Justin1705]

Heavy convective rain in luton but nothing on radar

[Biggin]

I would say kick off is around  7-8 Londonwise Starting to brew to the west.

[Lynxus]

33 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

So using a little knowledge I picked up from UKWW - the storms are likely to have the updraught near the front - so I would assume that means quite a clear view of activity as the storm approaches (as you’re not looking through a deep shaft of rain)

This assumes:

A) I’m reading things properly

B) I’m analysing things properly

C) it actually rains

D) there is a storm

Updraft can sorta happen anywhere. I mean any cloud is technically an upwelling of air.

And yeah. The rear of a storm is normally where the rainfall happens. 

A lot of this can vary based on how strong the updraft is and the speed of the storm. 

I would say it's not an exact science, when it is.. but it's a complex science..

 

In general however. Yes, youre correct 

[Justin1705]

Noticed people say that wind will affect development. Well it was windy now it's still as anything here in Bedfordshire, got sweat pouring from my head aswell !

[Lynxus]

2 minutes ago, Justin1705 said:

Noticed people say that wind will affect development. Well it was windy now it's still as anything here in Bedfordshire, got sweat pouring from my head aswell !

I'm In Woburn currently not far. And yeah winds dropped a lot.

Fairly muggy. 

If something's gonna happen, it needs to happen soon. It's getting late.

Certainly a classic storm feeling right now.

 

 

 

 

 

[Justin1705]

2 minutes ago, Lynxus said:

I'm In Woburn currently not far. And yeah winds dropped a lot.

Fairly muggy. 

If something's gonna happen, it needs to happen soon. It's getting late.

Certainly a classic storm feeling right now.

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I've looked at the most recent charts and the cape has been downgraded across the board for today. Must have been too much cloud to early very stormy feeling but not very stormy looking, I'm going to have my window open just in case but looks like Netflix has priority for now  

[TJS1998Tom]

Still looking darker and darker here but nothing much on the radar apart from some light rain

[ChannelThunder]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Friday afternoon/evening holds some interest:

A small patch of instability it seems, with UKV even threatening some elevated cells coming in off the channel Friday AM. Sadly, models have kept us on the wrong side of that shallow low for days now and it doesn't look like changing. I think we've got a chance at some weak storms, but the juicy ones look like staying continental.

[Rufus Butterfield]

Been waiting patiently for a storm since 31st May and usually I would have had a few by now, but this year has been especially quiet. I can’t remember a year this quiet for storms.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

16 hours ago, Gonzolio Martinez said:

What seemed like a benign blob of elevated rain suddenly went bang and became quite the light show - big lightning every 5-10 seconds atm - all elevated so not as loud as I'd like but looks epic nonetheless

Didn't it just!

[Turquoise]

31 minutes ago, Rufus Butterfield said:

Been waiting patiently for a storm since 31st May and usually I would have had a few by now, but this year has been especially quiet. I can’t remember a year this quiet for storms.

we havnt had any for 2 years. yet the south east must of had about 12 storms already in the last few weeks. 

[Turquoise]

well......34th storm warning in a row for my area.....without a storm.

I know its only a risk...but they must know by now that if you aint right maybe the first 5 times then give it up. The amount of plans people cancel because of storms and heavy rain forecasted and we get a glorious sunny day instead. Literally every time now. 

It is clever though. Put a 10% risk across the whole country and if nothing happens it was only a risk. If it does its brilliant forecasting. 

Sorry to be a moaning moron but its just frustrating now, our grass is brown and dead, no rain at all for 3 weeks now....and when you see a forecast for rain or storms you think 'wow, maybe finally they will get it right'....and then of course it wont happen. The funniest thing is last time we had rain it wasnt forecasted haha.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Azuremoon2 said:

well......34th storm warning in a row for my area.....without a storm.

I know its only a risk...but they must know by now that if you aint right maybe the first 5 times then give it up. The amount of plans people cancel because of storms and heavy rain forecasted and we get a glorious sunny day instead. Literally every time now. 

It is clever though. Put a 10% risk across the whole country and if nothing happens it was only a risk. If it does its brilliant forecasting. 

Sorry to be a moaning moron but its just frustrating now, our grass is brown and dead, no rain at all for 3 weeks now....and when you see a forecast for rain or storms you think 'wow, maybe finally they will get it right'....and then of course it wont happen. The funniest thing is last time we had rain it wasnt forecasted haha.

So, I'm not the only one thinking that storm-warnings are nae worth the paper they're written on!

[Turquoise]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

So, I'm not the only one thinking that storm-warnings are nae worth the paper they're written on!

load of rubbish mate lol. Would be much more honest if they just say they ain't got a clue. Doesn't matter how many models or charts people look at, the weather will do its own thing so there is no point pretending to know what it will do. I see some people looking at charts 2 weeks ahead and saying what they think will happen...how you could you possibly know that far ahead? People cant get it right an hour before lol

 

Anyway, I'm sweating, moody, frustrated.....I will stop ranting now lol

[Peachy]

I think we need to face up to the fact that the uk just doesn't do decent storms anymore. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

[Rufus Butterfield]

2 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

load of rubbish mate lol. Would be much more honest if they just say they ain't got a clue. Doesn't matter how many models or charts people look at, the weather will do its own thing so there is no point pretending to know what it will do. I see some people looking at charts 2 weeks ahead and saying what they think will happen...how you could you possibly know that far ahead? People cant get it right an hour before lol

 

Anyway, I'm sweating, moody, frustrated.....I will stop ranting now lol

A good storm will come one day, eventually. That’s how I think about things when it comes to this, but I can imagine having an interest in storms and not having a decent one for years is deeply frustrating. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Peachy said:

I think we need to face up to the fact that the uk just doesn't do decent storms anymore. 

But we do do a good beer

[Turquoise]

4 minutes ago, Rufus Butterfield said:

A good storm will come one day, eventually. That’s how I think about things when it comes to this, but I can imagine having an interest in storms and not having a decent one for years is deeply frustrating. 

I just want it mainly to clear this humid air we have had for weeks now....lol

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, Azuremoon2 said:

I just want it mainly to clear this humid air we have had for weeks now....lol

Be honest mate… you mainly want a thunderstorm

[AnvilCrawlers]

I've learnt to now live with not expecting storms,Too many disappointments in the past.It a case the forecast is showing a possibility but it's a very low possibility.if it happens it's a a bonus if not it like oh well the possibility was lol. 

Best way is to expect nothing and if you do get something you will then be pleasantly surprised.

[Harry]

Given that raging cell near Northampton isn’t sparking, I’m feeling a bit dispondent  

[TJS1998Tom]

10 minutes ago, Peachy said:

I think we need to face up to the fact that the uk just doesn't do decent storms anymore. 

Certainly don't get them like we used to, can't even remember the last time Lincolnshire had a decent storm, even home grown storms. Would get the occasional thundery shower with a few decent rumbles but nothing like we used to sadly. 

[Turquoise]

I am sure a lot of places also have this issue evidently by the horrible wildfires yesterday with the dry grass.....but we need rain. We really need it. Farms up here are not producing crops and this grass outisde my communal block is usually bright green lol...now its brown, dry and lifeless. Only so much we can water it.

So it is frustrating when we get predicted rain and it never happens.