Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards

[ChannelThunder]

Disappointingly, any ideas of a plume have been dropped on the last few model runs, with more of a typical UK SE/NW divide being shown next week, still, at least it'll be warmer

[A Face like Thunder]

Last night's BBC News included a picture of a funnel cloud at Scunthorpe and the rather sad sight of an outdoor service at the National Arboretum in Staffs which was taking place in pouring rain. 

[Zak M]

Love a whale's mouth!

Edited May 5, 2022 by Zak M

[convector]

Reckon the skies might look pretty tonight over birmingham/cotswolds area - no chance of a storm though. Just some lingering CAPE beneath a strengthening ridge 

[Windblade]

Well this is boring isn't it? Exactly one month ago from now I was enjoying a cracking little storm at home. Since then I've had about ten minutes of proper heavy rain on Wednesday night, apart from that, absolutely nothing, with wall to wall sunshine most days and a few grey stratus filled boring days but that's it. No sign of anything on the horizon for the foreseeable. April used to be a brilliant month for small pulse storms round these parts not so long ago...

Edited May 6, 2022 by Windblade

[Atmogenic]

Big cumulus clouds here right now, will see if i’ll be able to get some nice pics later if it continues being like this

Edited May 7, 2022 by Atmogenic

[Sentinel]

Huge downpour on Canvey Island at the moment. I was hoping to find some geocaches before watching Concord Rangers play, but I'm stuck in the car watching huge rain drops bouncing off the bonnet. First really meaningful rain for a couple of months round here. 

[Atmogenic]

3 hours ago, Atmogenic said:

Big cumulus clouds here right now, will see if i’ll be able to get some nice pics later if it continues being like this

nvm I got absolutely soaked by the downpour over me which lasted for over 20mins and eventually went home, there is no way i'm going out again unless I get good cloud formation outside my house  

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Still waiting to hear some thunder this year! Already nearing Mid May, and nothing. Thank god I’m off to Florida in September! Another monotonous start to the storm season to say the least! 

[jmp223420]

Rainy and dreech in Glasgow, but no signs of convection none of the ingredients are there to produce anything exciting.  I think the last time I heard thunder was the first month of Autumn

[ChannelThunder]

ECM has been getting more thundery with each run for 7-9 days out. Getting a little nervous as I have office/work event days Tues/Weds and have to be up at 5am to go to 'the mainland'. If this plume could delay itself by 48 hours...

Edited May 9, 2022 by Lance M

[Ben Sainsbury]

Yeah ECM might actually be one of the best thundery runs I've ever seen. Close to mid-teen 850s throughout from late Sunday, approaching 17'c at 850 for SE later in the run. Persistent southerly flow due to high to E, and low to the W. Slack region over the UK, with moisture advection and overriding portion of the jetstream at upper levels. Simply a recipe for severe thunderstorms. 

Merely an observation of this evenings run and not to be taken as gospel!

Edited May 9, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[Eagle Eye]

28 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Yeah ECM might actually be one of the best thundery runs I've ever seen. Close to mid-teen 850s throughout from late Sunday, approaching 17'c at 850 for SE later in the run. Persistent southerly flow due to high to E, and low to the W. Slack region over the UK, with moisture advection and overriding portion of the jetstream at upper levels. Simply a recipe for severe thunderstorms. 

Merely an observation of this evenings run and not to be taken as gospel!

Absolutely, if this were closer I'd be getting excited but first we wait and see what the high and the low do before we look at something like this (this just as an example from the ECM run).

Edited May 9, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[viking_smb]

tbh i wouldnt worry its too far out.

[The Tall Weatherman]

38 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Absolutely, if this were closer I'd be getting excited but first we wait and see what the high and the low do before we look at something like this (this just as an example from the ECM run).

I love dreaming about this stuff but this far out it is kind of a guess but one thing I have seen is every single model going for plume situation with temps soaring past 26 degrees and some runs going near 30 degrees. Anyways if this does happen my camera will be ready and my yt channel will be hungry. I just looked at some other runs and there hinting storms as well.

[Ben Sainsbury]

11 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

tbh i wouldnt worry its too far out.

You’re not wrong to be honest 

[ChannelThunder]

Game on for some imports around Sunday night? This is being picked up on on both main models.

[Eagle Eye]

8 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Game on for some imports around Sunday night? This is being picked up on on both main models.

Much closer and I wouldn't be surprised if something happened but still a long time to wait as to anything. I'm just hoping at the moment, if the UKMO follows in on a similar setup then definitely something to watch because we very rarely saw that last year or even the year before.

[Southern Storm]

59 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Game on for some imports around Sunday night? This is being picked up on on both main models.

Things are definitely on the up, but we've been burned far too many times for me to get too excited this early on.

I'm planning on heading out to do a time lapse of the Lunar eclipse, a thunderstorm would be the icing on top if anything does come off

[ChannelThunder]

Awaiting tonight's ECM with keen interest...let's see those Sunday night cells again please!

[Southern Storm]

17 minutes ago, Lance M said:

Awaiting tonight's ECM with keen interest...let's see those Sunday night cells again please!

The GFS has precipitation pushing up from the south, for Sunday evening, but it doesn't look particularly thundery

Is that just lower resolution making look that way on the GFS?

[ChannelThunder]

32 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

The GFS has precipitation pushing up from the south, for Sunday evening, but it doesn't look particularly thundery

Is that just lower resolution making look that way on the GFS?

Yeah, usually down to the lower resolution! I've seen some bright colours on there when MCSs and the like are forecast though.

As for tonight's ECM, it's an interesting one, with something of an MCS clipping the south coast on Saturday night, with various other pulses of showers and storms for many days afterwards. Great to see thundery potential back in the models, but there's a hell of a long way to go on this one.

[Mapantz]

In the last couple of days, the models have moved to the 'Kent Clipper' scenario. A way off yet, but never a good sign imo.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Amazing view of this cumulonimbus this afternoon  

[Azazel]

an incredibly dull spring here to continue the thunderstorm drought in C/S England. 

Convection in these parts has been rarer than hen's teeth since 2007.