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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st May 2022 onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset

Looking slightly better on the latest model runs, with chances increasing for multiple events heading out way 

Permission to get slightly more excited? 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
2 hours ago, Southern Storm said:

Looking slightly better on the latest model runs, with chances increasing for multiple events heading out way 

Permission to get slightly more excited? 

 

 

 

 

Absolutely not - my advice is maybe 24 hours out, allow yourself to start getting excited....5 days out is a fool's game...been there far too many times  

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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
4 hours ago, Harry said:

Absolutely not - my advice is maybe 24 hours out, allow yourself to start getting excited....5 days out is a fool's game...been there far too many times  

I totally agree, but I just can't help myself it's been too long since we had a good storm, so just having something showing in the models is enough for me! 

And while you can't pin down an event and say it will definitely come off, I'd be surprised if someone somewhere in the south, doesn't get something starting between this Saturday and Tuesday next week 

And if not, so be it 

It's still early in the year, with many surprises, and and failures to come I'm sure!

?️⚡⛈️⚡?️⚡⛈️

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

To be fair, there's some good cross-model agreement now for at least something creeping across the channel Saturday night onward, GFS already wants to make it a KC though, which isn't a good sign. We'll see what the ECM and GEM do shortly...

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

UKV has been showing a Kent Clipper from the beginning.

Coming up to 5 years since a thunderstorm directly impacted here. The drought continues!

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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
9 minutes ago, Lance M said:

To be fair, there's some good cross-model agreement now for at least something creeping across the channel Saturday night onward, GFS already wants to make it a KC though, which isn't a good sign. We'll see what the ECM and GEM do shortly...

Hopefully just the GFS being overly progressive, as it looks like it has edged back west a little to my eye, but that's just comparing the 12z to to this mornings run, ideally, I'd like to be comparing it to yesterday's 12z run

But as Harry has eluded to, plenty of time for things to change, Hopefully for the better!

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

UKV has been showing a Kent Clipper from the beginning.

Coming up to 5 years since a thunderstorm directly impacted here. The drought continues!

When you say impacted, do you mean right overhead?

I would have thought you would have had something decent in the not to distant past, but I have to admit, I'm struggling to think if anything of note west of where I am located

As someone who likes to get out and photograph storms, I actually don't mind a bit of distance between me and the storm as you stand a better chance of getting a decent capture, but I also don't mind having an absolute banger overhead 

Hope you get 5 years worth when the time finally comes.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
13 minutes ago, Southern Storm said:

When you say impacted, do you mean right overhead?

I would have thought you would have had something decent in the not to distant past, but I have to admit, I'm struggling to think if anything of note west of where I am located

Pretty much overhead, and with torrential rain & gusty winds.

May 27th 2017. Several CG's within 250 yards..

Since then, it has been thunder & lightning in the distance, or one rumble of thunder in a shower. Very poor and underwhelming since

1990300889_Screenshot2022-05-11185410.thumb.png.548bf339f68365b1076faac72088a855.png 306925088_Screenshot2022-05-11185525.thumb.png.1c7d2dca76d1a4197bf28ee33e5e1401.png

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Thrapston | Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather
  • Location: Thrapston | Northamptonshire

The BBC, UKV and the ECMWF are going for a big old MCS moving through France and into central Britain. We just have to wait and see! I won’t be confident till the models open up in two days!

C999C72F-E8A1-412D-9D38-406ECC2EDD24.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

I still get the impression this first Saturday night event will favour the SE, but if we have several rounds of storms advected N/NE across the UK we are bound to hit the jackpot with one of them, whether that be elevated overnight storms or homegrown daytime storms.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms & Snow
  • Location: Herne Bay, Kent (14 m)

See there's a few ideas for a few sparks to go off over the weekend. 

Might be the good ol' Kent clipper with that of Ramsgate and such aimed for a direct hit like usual but you never know with these things, have to hope they are elevated and don't go kaput over the Channel! 

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
4 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

I still get the impression this first Saturday night event will favour the SE, but if we have several rounds of storms advected N/NE across the UK we are bound to hit the jackpot with one of them, whether that be elevated overnight storms or homegrown daytime storms.

tbh ben i think it will be a kent clipper.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The storm chances are increasing for next week and i will be on mornings which will be a bonus but if the timings come through the night then i may miss them,i may have to get my head down in the afternoon/evening if that's the case

it's good to see this opportunity arise for next week,yes it's still a way to go untill then but some interest at last to talk about non the less.

next Tuesday looks good and possibly Friday too.

Untitled.thumb.png.b23657c01913efbaac5431301e1e24db.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and wind storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
8 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Just can't help but bring this up which the GFS is showing for Tuesday! Definite westward shift on this run too. One of the most extreme GFS Precip charts I've seen and it appears to have develop quite an intense squall line, as shown by the large CAPE and relatively strong shear. Will be interesting to look at the skew-t for this one when they update!

1696306772_squallgfs.thumb.jpg.bbd35ada03dc113c36aeb70c5b758bde.jpg222171388_capegfs.thumb.png.fb8ea123e6bb0a36522d7f9aae82aab9.png2041300656_dlsgfs.thumb.png.40fb68bbee4a0787cd35350abdf1eeb4.png

Hopefully we can fill in that little gap in the SE corner!

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
8 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Just can't help but bring this up which the GFS is showing for Tuesday! Definite westward shift on this run too. One of the most extreme GFS Precip charts I've seen and it appears to have develop quite an intense squall line, as shown by the large CAPE and relatively strong shear. Will be interesting to look at the skew-t for this one when they update!

1696306772_squallgfs.thumb.jpg.bbd35ada03dc113c36aeb70c5b758bde.jpg222171388_capegfs.thumb.png.fb8ea123e6bb0a36522d7f9aae82aab9.png2041300656_dlsgfs.thumb.png.40fb68bbee4a0787cd35350abdf1eeb4.png

Best that I could find
image.thumb.png.2fa9669fd8b51120278ef2081121bb4c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Saturday night has got the strong whiff of thundery rain to me with a pretty favourable area for convective development coming up and destabilising pretty readily. Sometimes you can get strong embedded cells within these types of masses that can provide much more excitement then perhaps you would first expect.

I also agree with Ben that this maybe one of those set-ups where we get several shots of thundery activity come up from the south. We also do have to watch for mid week next week, still early days but that front moving in could well trigger some convection, especially further west.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Would love to be wrong, but I am not seeing any meaningful instability at all for Saturday night/early Sunday. GFS and NMM are showing (at best!) LIs of 0 and maximum CAPE of about 100 in a small pocket over C/S England.

In my experience, it really doesn't matter how glorious storms are over a CAPE rich C/NW France, if they move into an area of limited instability, the electrics die out almost instantaneously.

I really do not see anything in the current charts to get even vaguely excited about for this time frame, sadly  

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
5 minutes ago, Harry said:

Would love to be wrong, but I am not seeing any meaningful instability at all for Saturday night/early Sunday. GFS and NMM are showing (at best!) LIs of 0 and maximum CAPE of about 100 in a small pocket over C/S England.

In my experience, it really doesn't matter how glorious storms are over a CAPE rich C/NW France, if they move into an area of limited instability, the electrics die out almost instantaneously.

I really do not see anything in the current charts to get even vaguely excited about for this time frame, sadly  

They could be elevated in nature and it often is the event that seems to decide that. Sometimes when there is virtually no CAPE the storms decide to survive and other times they don't. I do think Sunday night into Monday is a better chance of lightning surviving I just wouldn't write it off just yet.

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Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK

The north sea clag usually cloaks any lightning when the surface winds are E or NE. Especially as the sea is still cold from winter. Perhaps next week some homegrown storms may be more visible. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes & stormy winters. Facebook @ Lance's Lightning Shots
  • Location: Thorley, west Isle of Wight

Saturday night just coming into range on the standard UKV runs...and hate to say it, but as pointed out in posts above; it's all looking a bit 'thundery rain', which inevitably ends up meaning thundery over the channel only...

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Admittedly the GFS is relatively poor but both ARPEGE and NMM are decent for coastal areas. I'm still not overly impressed however! I think in this situation if we can see convection developing at an elevated level, along with wind shear supporting greater cloud tops despite limited instability, there should still be some lightning to enjoy but nothing that we haven't seen before.

245565514_ARPEGE300-400.thumb.jpg.610829c54f8dfd0ea5264d2be826084e.jpg1735554420_NMMsimilarmorefurthereast.thumb.png.b6ba6589e74565fe73930c3966517f3f.png

I shared this around on Twitter a few days back, but I'm confident it'll turn out something like this...

this.thumb.jpg.934055177d122fffee7076a73fb2e1bd.jpg

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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