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Summer 2022 forecasts and thoughts


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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Don't think we have a dedicated thread for Summer 2022, there is a spring and summer chat thread, but feel we need one to allow people to provide there thoughts and forecasts for Summer 2022 given we are in May now.

    Recent summers have been a mixed bag, best weather has often been reserved first half, becoming poorer by the time August arrives, not always though 2016 and 2019 from memory brought decent Augusts.

    We've had a lengthy spell of warmer than average month, and also lengthy long dry periods. No science at all, but would not be surprised to see a wet summer this year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Weather Preferences: In summer, a decent thunderstorm, and hot weather. In winter, snow or gale
  • Location: Basingstoke

    I have to say this year has been boring so far.  I do unfortunately see summer panning out the same way.  I don't therefore see a 2012 style washout, but not a great one either.  Maybe a 2002 or 2011 style summer?

    Hope I'm wrong though and we get a 1976 June, a 2006 July and a 1995 August.  A bit unrealistic though me thinks!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    44 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

    I have to say this year has been boring so far.  I do unfortunately see summer panning out the same way.  I don't therefore see a 2012 style washout, but not a great one either.  Maybe a 2002 or 2011 style summer?

    Hope I'm wrong though and we get a 1976 June, a 2006 July and a 1995 August.  A bit unrealistic though me thinks!

    Yes it has been a quiet start to the year, with the exception of the three storms in February. We tend to see things balance themselves out, lengthy dry periods followed by wet periods. We've had a number of notably dry months recently, mmm doesn't bode well for the summer, its been a relatively dry 12-15 months..

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    Posted
  • Location: West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: West Midlands

    I can see this upcoming summer continuing with the benign theme, which has been all too common with our weather over the last couple of years. Obviously there will be a few hot days scattered around here and there, but otherwise it will be quite a forgettable summer. 

     

     

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    2 hours ago, SummerShower said:

    I have to say this year has been boring so far.  I do unfortunately see summer panning out the same way.  I don't therefore see a 2012 style washout, but not a great one either.  Maybe a 2002 or 2011 style summer?

    Hope I'm wrong though and we get a 1976 June, a 2006 July and a 1995 August.  A bit unrealistic though me thinks!

    Was 2011 a better summer than 2012?  2012 at least had a good August.  2011 was awful.

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Weather Preferences: In summer, a decent thunderstorm, and hot weather. In winter, snow or gale
  • Location: Basingstoke

     

    16 minutes ago, Greyhound81 said:

    Was 2011 a better summer than 2012?  2012 at least had a good August.  2011 was awful.

    True that August 2012 did improve considerably compared to June and July.  However June was the worst summer month I have ever lived through and wouldn't want a repeat of it this year (or ever tbh!)  2011 had usable but boring weather in July, though June and August were more changeable, just mediocre really.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    12 minutes ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

    Hope for a 1989 summer. May to October was brilliant. 

    Indeed not had a better 5 month run since.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Dudley
  • Location: Dudley
    1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

    Indeed not had a better 5 month run since.. 

    True. 1990 . May was superb. June was rubbish. Mid July onward was brilliant. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 minute ago, NEVES SCREAMER said:

    True. 1990 . May was superb. June was rubbish. Mid July onward was brilliant. 

     

    Yes June 90 not so good. September 90 wasnt as good as 1989. Closest we've come since is 2018 but the August wasn't great.  May to July 2018 though on a par if not bit better than 1989. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Dudley
  • Location: Dudley
    1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

    Yes June 90 not so good. September 90 wasnt as good as 1989. Closest we've come since is 2018 but the August wasn't great.  May to July 2018 though on a par if not bit better than 1989. 

     

    Agreed. 2018 May July was great but slowly deteriorated August onwards.  It's about time we had a marvellous August in my book. Terrible run. Year after year of awfulness.

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 20c. Also love a good thunderstorm!
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

    I'm going for the following:

    June: wet but with a plume at the end like 2019

    July: uneventful like 2011

    August: better than July with usable weather but no heatwaves, like 2013.

    I'll also go for a max 33c at Heathrow on 28th June.

    Just gut feeling of course!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    1 hour ago, SummerShower said:

     

    True that August 2012 did improve considerably compared to June and July.  However June was the worst summer month I have ever lived through and wouldn't want a repeat of it this year (or ever tbh!)  2011 had usable but boring weather in July, though June and August were more changeable, just mediocre really.  

     

    1 hour ago, Greyhound81 said:

    Was 2011 a better summer than 2012?  2012 at least had a good August.  2011 was awful.

    2011 was the coolest summer since the 1980's but although not dry, it was not the washout of 07/12. I don't think it was especially dull or sunny either.

    ....

    In answer to the OP's speculation I see nothing at all in the background global pattern that would indicate a hot summer (note even 07/11 had a hot spell). I expect the best of any weather to be in June with a poor July and August. Decent chance of no summer month above 16C.

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Weather Preferences: In summer, a decent thunderstorm, and hot weather. In winter, snow or gale
  • Location: Basingstoke
    53 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Yes June 90 not so good. September 90 wasnt as good as 1989. Closest we've come since is 2018 but the August wasn't great.  May to July 2018 though on a par if not bit better than 1989. 

     

    And 2003 was pretty decent too right through to the autumn, although the May was mediocre..

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    50 minutes ago, SummerShower said:

    And 2003 was pretty decent too right through to the autumn, although the May was mediocre..

    Agree 2003 a close third. May was mixed. The heat lingered well into September after the heatwave early August. I found 2003 very humid. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter

    I'm gonna go for a blocked but hot summer.

    June: 16.8°C

    July: 18.5°C

    August 17.1°C

     

     

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    3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

     

    2011 was the coolest summer since the 1980's but although not dry, it was not the washout of 07/12. I don't think it was especially dull or sunny either.

    ....

    In answer to the OP's speculation I see nothing at all in the background global pattern that would indicate a hot summer (note even 07/11 had a hot spell). I expect the best of any weather to be in June with a poor July and August. Decent chance of no summer month above 16C.

    Do you think this summer will be as bad as the awful mid 80s summers (85-88)?  We are overdue a really bad one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    6 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

    In answer to the OP's speculation I see nothing at all in the background global pattern that would indicate a hot summer (note even 07/11 had a hot spell). I expect the best of any weather to be in June with a poor July and August. Decent chance of no summer month above 16C.

    Agree. I'm expecting June to offer up the warmest and driest part of the summer before a decline through July and August.

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    Posted
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts
  • Weather Preferences: hot summers; frigid winters; golden fall; bright spring
  • Location: Trowbridge, Wilts

    Agree with Crewe, JUNE best month but I fear for August….another 2012 repeat? Please not!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Ice days, clear skies, blizzards. Summer: cool and dry
  • Location: Manchester

    We've had a decent spring up to this point, don't think that'll last into the summer.

    June: Warm start but slowly deteriorates with cool westerlies.  A few warm days scattered about. CET 14-15C. EWP 110mm

    July: Coolest July since 2012, a bleak summers month on par with 1988. CET 14-15C. EWP 90mm

    August: I suspect we'll see an improvement with the Azores high making a comeback and southerly winds. Then a switch to cooler easterly winds at the end of the month  Lots of convection about. CET 16-17C. EWP 75mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
    14 hours ago, Greyhound81 said:

    Do you think this summer will be as bad as the awful mid 80s summers (85-88)?  We are overdue a really bad one.

    I don't think one can really ever forecast such a comparison, it would be like forecasting the next 63 or suggesting in 2012 that we were going to have a 07 style horror show.

    More reasonably is to look at 98/11/15 as recent examples of consistently cool and relatively damp summers bar short spells.

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    Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    16 hours ago, Earthshine said:

    I'm gonna go for a blocked but hot summer.

    June: 16.8°C

    July: 18.5°C

    August 17.1°C

     

     

    going by those monthly means this would be the 3rd hottest summer on record only beaten by 1976 and 1826 

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    I can’t remember what I wrote in the 2022 predictions thread(maybe someone can did that up), but I have a feeling August will be the best month of the summer for a change.

    June will be poor this time round. Lots of dull weather and some storms also.

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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
    2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    going by those monthly means this would be the 3rd hottest summer on record only beaten by 1976 and 1826 

    Who said they were means? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    4 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    going by those monthly means this would be the 3rd hottest summer on record only beaten by 1976 and 1826 

    Wouldn't bet against it these days!

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