Summer 2022 forecasts and thoughts

[Roger J Smith]

I will go with warm to very warm and rather dry. There has been very little energy in the atmosphere which applied to summer weather patterns would mean stagnant (somewhat) high pressure nearby. Compared to some warmer summers this one might be a bit on the cloudy side which would reduce the heat potential slightly. Would that compare to 2002 at all? A warm May is not always a great precursor of a good summer, but they don't rule one out either (e.g. 1947, 1868). 

If this busts I think it would only be towards a bland nearer-to-average sort of outcome. To be conservative would suggest CET values (after what I expect to be a very warm May) 15.5 in June, 17.5 in July and August, 14.8 in September. One of July/August could be warmer and into the higher end of the range. There may be modified drought issues too, as longer term rainfall has been somewhat below normal. 

[Don]

28 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I will go with warm to very warm and rather dry. There has been very little energy in the atmosphere which applied to summer weather patterns would mean stagnant (somewhat) high pressure nearby. Compared to some warmer summers this one might be a bit on the cloudy side which would reduce the heat potential slightly. Would that compare to 2002 at all? A warm May is not always a great precursor of a good summer, but they don't rule one out either (e.g. 1947, 1868). 

If this busts I think it would only be towards a bland nearer-to-average sort of outcome. To be conservative would suggest CET values (after what I expect to be a very warm May) 15.5 in June, 17.5 in July and August, 14.8 in September. One of July/August could be warmer and into the higher end of the range. There may be modified drought issues too, as longer term rainfall has been somewhat below normal. 

The warm May's of 1989 and 2018 were also followed by hot summers.

[Don]

Ok, purely for fun, this is my punt for summer 2022.

A warmer and slightly wetter than average summer with a largely dry June, followed by a progressively wetter July, leading into August being the wettest month.

CET's

June:  16.0C

July:  17.5C

August:  17.0C

Edited May 2, 2022 by Don

[Weather-history]

There hasn't been a rock solid great summer  ending in "2" that you can definitely pin down on without really digging into the archives but you can with shockers ending in "2"

eg   2012, 1922, 1912

Take great summers ending in "9"  Very easy: 1949, 1959, 1989 but it is a struggle with "2"

Highest Manchester summer index values ending in "2" is 1932 with 223

 

 

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by Weather-history

[Don]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

There hasn't been a rock solid great summer  ending in "2" that you can definitely pin down on without really digging into the archives but you can with shockers ending in "2"

eg   2012, 1922, 1912

Take great summers ending in "9"  Very easy: 1949, 1959, 1989 but it is a struggle with "2"

Highest Manchester summer index values ending in "2" is 1932 with 223

 

 

 

It was a similar story with summers ending in '8' and then 2018 came along.....

[summer blizzard]

I imagine there'd be a stronger 11 year pattern so it's just a statistical fluke to look at each decade. 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

2 hours ago, Don said:

It was a similar story with summers ending in '8' and then 2018 came along.....

what about years ending in 7? 1997 had a hot august... i hear 1947 was good but other than that 

[Don]

3 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

what about years ending in 7? 1997 had a hot august... i hear 1947 was good but other than that 

Not sure about the 7's.

[damianslaw]

Forecasts going for a moderate la nina through the summer I think.. composites would suggest lots of mid atlantic high development, if we maintain a sluggish jet, as has been the case since Dec 2020, then this could be a very stubborn pattern indeed, a more invigorated jet may enable heights to sink south and north at times, bringing more greater swings in conditions, colder and warmer.

[al78]

My prediction for early summer is an unsettled/wet one, maybe not so much in the SE but more the further north and west you go. My prediction is based on the fact that I have a hiking holiday in Braemar in mid June, and the chances that I nail excellent hillwalking weather in Scotland two years running have got to be extemely low.

This prediction has as much skill as any of the dynamical models at this lead time.

[reef]

On 02/05/2022 at 23:13, Don said:

Ok, purely for fun, this is my punt for summer 2022.

A warmer and slightly wetter than average summer with a largely dry June, followed by a progressively wetter July, leading into August being the wettest month.

CET's

June:  16.0C

July:  17.5C

August:  17.0C

It shows how things have changed. On the face of it that wouldn't seem like an exceptional summer by any means but would still be the 15th warmest in the CET series. Just 0.4C short of 2006.

[summer blizzard]

June's around the 16C mark are pretty glorious normally to be fair.

[Don]

8 hours ago, reef said:

It shows how things have changed. On the face of it that wouldn't seem like an exceptional summer by any means but would still be the 15th warmest in the CET series. Just 0.4C short of 2006.

Indeed and I hope I've overdone the CET's but we shall see and it's purely just for fun.

[Dangerous55019]

Ahhh the summer thread... Or the pre-autumn thread as I like to think of it. 

Now for once I have been having a look at some of the long range models as to what could happen this year, now for a while the like of the CFS V2, Cansips etc have been showing a front loaded summer, but turning much more unsettled as time goes on, (i.e. July and August) ... Now  will it pan out like that? Only time will tell.

As for my hope/wish cast for summer 2022, well, although I'm not a fan of long hot summers, (being as I suffer with reverse SAD) I would gladly take those unbearably hot, hazy and sultry days, for the thunderstorm value... Say every other day a huge thundery breakdown in the evening, and the alternating days without the thunderstorms, have a barbeque. 

Anyway... At the end of the day, the weather will do, whatever the weather will do. 

[kold weather]

On 04/05/2022 at 14:44, summer blizzard said:

June's around the 16C mark are pretty glorious normally to be fair.

Yeah especially combined with decent sunshine levels that will feel glorious. We may not be far off that kinds level in the 3rd week of May from the looks of things.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Pointless speculating too much - hopefully it is warm and sunny. 

Given energy prices, an average 16c CET for every month of the year would now be most desirable!

[Sunny76]

On 03/05/2022 at 14:53, cheeky_monkey said:

what about years ending in 7? 1997 had a hot august... i hear 1947 was good but other than that 

I didn’t rate 97 to be honest. It was a humid mess of a summer with periods of cool and cloudy weather early on, and the only really good period was the hot weather in early August.

A very humid summer, and also cloudy. The worst combination. 

1 hour ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Pointless speculating too much - hopefully it is warm and sunny. 

Given energy prices, an average 16c CET for every month of the year would now be most desirable!

That’s probably not going to happen lol. 

[summer blizzard]

Curtosy of Matt Ventrice and Matt Hugo respectively (both have good Twitter weather accounts).

 

Our current warm spell so to speak is the result of the pronounced high amplitude wave in the Indian Ocean. This will either push east into the Pacific or fizzle out as the trades (strong themselves) act as a barrier. The most recent forecasts suggest the later which will likely sink AAM towards end of month. 

We can see here (ignore the rise near the end) that the background pattern during most of this spring has been for fairly low AAM (-PDO and -ENSO being well coupled with the atmosphere here - MEI values have been in the moderate range). While this is not always that bad in Q2 (we can all recall months like April 07, April 11, May 08, March 12 and May-June 17 which likely had low AAM), the typical atmospheric response as we go deeper into summer is for pronounced cyclonic weather and not insignificant northern blocking (the later somebody smarter will need to explain since i kind of imagine it should actually produce the opposite over the pole when i picture the atmosphere). 

There are other things but this is an attempt to justify my early thoughts i suppose and suggest that a bit like 2017 and 2008, i would consider this May spell to be a largely false dawn. 

Edited May 6, 2022 by summer blizzard

[kold weather]

7 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

I didn’t rate 97 to be honest. It was a humid mess of a summer with periods of cool and cloudy weather early on, and the only really good period was the hot weather in early August.

A very humid summer, and also cloudy. The worst combination. 

That’s probably not going to happen lol. 

We really are overdue a substantially hot August (above 18c) especially given the background warming that has taken place since the 90s. August 20 did have an exceptionally hot spell (probably nationwide on average one of the hottest ever I'd guess, even if it didn't have quite the same concentrated extreme as Jul 19 or Aug 03) but outside the first 10 days it wasn't anything special and thats reflected in the very wam, but not exceptional CET from Aug 20.

Hard to call this summer, as its so rare to be moving into summer with a strengthening La Nina, yet alone a strengthening 3rd year Nina potentially. I'd normally bank on a more unsettled summer in anything above a weak Nina (07 probably is a good match, especially given the relatively dry 45 day period.) Its not unusual also to undergo a fairly sustained dry HP period only for it to to sweep eastwards when seasonal wave lengths change. with that all being said there are more than a few interesting signs. My guess is we will probably get at least one reasonably hot month with the others perhaps being very unsettled but still modestly warm.

ECM long range forecast looking pretty hot for the summer, roughly suggesting a 17C summer CET which would put it right up there with the likes of 95/06/18. Also pretty dry looking as well.

[MattH]

On 06/05/2022 at 08:55, summer blizzard said:

Curtosy of Matt Ventrice and Matt Hugo respectively (both have good Twitter weather accounts).

 

Our current warm spell so to speak is the result of the pronounced high amplitude wave in the Indian Ocean. This will either push east into the Pacific or fizzle out as the trades (strong themselves) act as a barrier. The most recent forecasts suggest the later which will likely sink AAM towards end of month. 

We can see here (ignore the rise near the end) that the background pattern during most of this spring has been for fairly low AAM (-PDO and -ENSO being well coupled with the atmosphere here - MEI values have been in the moderate range). While this is not always that bad in Q2 (we can all recall months like April 07, April 11, May 08, March 12 and May-June 17 which likely had low AAM), the typical atmospheric response as we go deeper into summer is for pronounced cyclonic weather and not insignificant northern blocking (the later somebody smarter will need to explain since i kind of imagine it should actually produce the opposite over the pole when i picture the atmosphere). 

There are other things but this is an attempt to justify my early thoughts i suppose and suggest that a bit like 2017 and 2008, i would consider this May spell to be a largely false dawn. 

Hi.

Worth a post on this one as it is definitely that time of the year when some general guidance on the summer pattern can be gathered. As per usual, whether it is based on short-term NWP or long-term seasonal models and teleconnections, there are no certainties, look at this past winter and teleconnections for example.

That (disclaimer) aside, I don't think we need to look too far back, in terms of years, to gather some indications as to how this summer may pan out. Clearly, we are now entering a third spring and summer period where La Nina is in play. While an up-coming passage of a more coherent -ve VP200 (WWB) is expected across the Pacific, short-term, this isn't set to be enough to wipe out the current SST anoms present, so, IMO, La Nina will remain present this summer. Depending on where you look and who you ask, there are still some conflicting comments, some saying neutral, some even still saying a progression to El Nino, especially by late summer, but not for me.

As a bit of background, focused on La Nina, increased easterly trade winds across the Pacific create a -ve frictional torque signal around 30N and this allows amplification of sub tropical anticyclones across the Pacific which results in extra westerly momentum around 50N above these anticyclones. The downstream pattern then develops a trough/ridge pattern so that the sub tropical ridge response in the Atlantic also pulls westwards to fill the vacuum created across the US by the Pacific anticyclone and decelerated Pacific jet. Simply put, as a general guide, particularly through the summer, La Nina is often associated with a Pacific ridge and a N Atlantic ridge, with a downstream trough pattern over NW Europe, clearly not a good thing for broader summer patterns. Obviously this is broadly speaking and short-term evolutions can and will alter this pattern.

Another feature looked at this time of year is the QBO and angular momentum link with solar activity. Some of the poorest summers have seen angular momentum fall or generally be within a -ve AAM state, in late May at the same time as the QBO phasing has chnaged from westerly to easterly.  Low solar forcing in tandem with low momentum tendencies and trending easterly QBO has some links to increasing the risk of northern blocking patterns through summer, no better example than the likes of the summer of 2012 which was riddled with northern blocking and S'ly tracking jet pattern with a dominant trough over NW Europe, the 'year without a summer'...

If we look through the above information, we are clearly checking some boxes there. We remain within an eQBO pattern and are likely to do so as we push into summer, couple that with La Nina and that isn't a great start. One counterbalance is solar mind, low solar activity isn't expected this year as we continue to progress out of the solar min from a few years back and, as ever, who knows how that may or many not influence things is anyones guess.

We have seen AAM rise over the last 5 to 7 days and that will get a further push into a more Nino atmospheric base state, short-term, so it is no surprises that NWP is modelling the significant N Atlantic trough extension and downstream ridge over the next 7 to 10 days. How quickly that is cleared away remains very uncertain, IMO, some NWP are breaking down the ridge too quickly, but even if the initial high does wane after this weekend the pattern is still conducive to early summer-type (generally wider higher temperatures, higher dew points etc) conditions than most have seen so far this year.

But...There is clear evidence for the AAM to fall once again through late May and into early June (see overnight EC46 plot, for example) which could be linked into the above paragraph once more about falling angular momentum at the wrong time. Overall, while there is a lack of northern blocking from the seasonal models, which is a good thing and half the battle, to me this summer while potentially not likely to be a 2012 et al washout, is likely to be far from a 2018 classic either. There is simply too much stacked against this being a long-hot UK summer with high pressure often dominant. Whether, as per other La Nina years, the best of the weather arrives early and then the wheels come off as the summer progresses is difficult to tell, but I have a feeling this summer will be highly modulated by the MJO. If we remain within a dominant trade wind pattern (Nina) and I can see persistent spells of unsettled weather, but get a more active MJO or kelvin wave on the move and we could easily flip that pattern, so we could end up with a summer that is 'down the middle', a couple of good weeks and a couple of bad which, overall, I think most would take. It could also be a highly convective summer as well, potentially 'warm and wet'. Couple that with remnant tropical features through July and August onwards in particular and it may well be far from a benign summer too.

Anyway, just two pennies worth at an important point in the annual calendar...

Cheers, Matt.