June 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

(a) CET forecasts -- the averages and extremes

includes all values 1981 to 2021, bold warmest, italic middle third, underlined coolest third. (14, 14, 13 due to ties). 

where possible I have converted values from CET legacy to the new CET v2.0. Notice this produces a new warmest June day. The 30-year average for 1992-2021 has finally overtaken the previous high benchmark for June (1822-51) as cool June 1991 was dropped for warm June 2021. That means we no longer have any month with its warmest 30-year interval in the distant past. On the other hand, quite a few Junes in the interval 1981 to 2000 have been dropped by 0.1 or 0.2 in v2.0, and this leads to lower averages for 1961-90, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 than we have been listing here (each has dropped by 0.1). 

23.2 ... 19th, 2005, warmest daily mean

18.2 ... 1846 (warmest June)

18.0 ... 1676 (2nd warmest)

17.3 ... 1826 (3rd warmest)

17.1 ... 1822 (4th warmest)

16.9 ... 1762, 1976, 1798 (5th-7th warmest)

16.1 ... 2018

16.0 ... 2017

15.9 ... 2003

15.8 ... 2005, 2006

15.7 ... 1992

15.5 ... 1982, 2021

15.3 ... 2020

15.2 ... 2004, 2010, 2016

15.1 ... 2007, 2014

15.0 ... 1993

14.9 ... 2000 ... average for 2001-2020

14.8 ... 1992-2021 average

14.7 ... 1986, 2009 

14.72 .. 1822-1851 had the warmest 30-year average of 14.72 until 1992-2021 moved past it to 14.76.

14.6 .. 1991-2020 average (fell by .05 to 14.64 in v2.0).

14.5 ... 1994 ... average for 1701-1800

14.4 ... 1989, 1996 and average for 1981-2010

14.3 ... 1983, 1984, 2002  and average for all years 1659-2021 (14.33), also 1801-1900

14.2 ... 1988, 1995, 2001, 2019 and average for 1901-2000

14.1 ... 1998 and average for 1961-1990, also 1659-1700

14.0 ... 1997 and average for 1971-2000

13.9 ... 2008, 2015

13.8 ... 1999

13.7 ... 2011

13.6 ... 2013

13.5 ... 1990, 2012

13.1 ... 1981

12.7 ... 1987

12.6 ... 1985

12.0 ... 1689, 1698

11.9 ... 1749 and 1991 (tied 5th coldest)

11.8 ... 1972, 1916, 1909 (tied 2nd coldest)

11.5 ... 1675 (coldest June)

 7.3 ... 9th (1816) and 19th (1795) coldest daily means

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Enter the CET forecast contest by end of the day Tuesday 31st of May without penalty, or on any of the first three days of June with increasing late penalties.

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EWP contest

The contest uses the England and Wales Hadley precip series (1766 to present) as its source. 

Predict the June 2022 rainfall in mm.

 

160.1 mm __ 2012 wettest 1766 to 2021

157.1 mm __ 1860 (2nd wettest 1766 to 2021)

_70.5 mm __ mean 1991-2020

_69.1 mm __ mean 1992-2021

_66.6 mm __ mean for all data 1766-2021

_66.3 mm __ mean 1981-2010

_16.5 mm __ 2018 driest 1981-2021 (20.2 mm in 1995 previous minimum)

__4.3 mm __ 1925 driest 1766-2021

In recent years, 2021_59.5 mm ___ 2020_98.3 mm ___ 2019 _ 116.3 mm ___ 2018 _ 16.5 mm ___ 2017 _ 93.8 mm ___ 2016 _ 114.0 mm

___ 2015 _ 38.8 mm ___ 2014 _ 49.8 mm ___ 2013 _ 37.6 mm ___ 2012 _ 160.1 mm ___ 2011 __ 82.0 mm _____ 2010 _ 42.7 mm.

- - - - - _______________________________ - - - - -

Enter the EWP contest (add your forecast to your CET temp forecast), same deadlines and from 1st to 3rd of June, it's 0.3 point deductions per day late to end of 3rd. Maximum score is 10.0 for closest forecast, all others are scored on a sliding scale by rank down to 0.0 points for least accurate. Duplicate entries lose 2/3 of a scoring interval by order of entry. 

Good luck in both contests !!

_ __ ___ ____ _____ ______ ______ _____ ____ ___ __ _

[Earthshine]

16.7°C and 52mm please!

[Don]

2 hours ago, Earthshine said:

16.7°C and 52mm please!

Hottest June since 1976?

[Earthshine]

20 minutes ago, Don said:

Hottest June since 1976?

It's been a while!

[Frigid]

The warmth has to end at some point. All months have been above average since September.

Going for 13.7C and 110mm rain 

 

[Weather26]

13.9C and 134mm please.

[coldest winter]

15.8 for me and EWP at 56.2mm

[Bobd29]

Hi, 15.25C and 73mm for me please

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

 

On 20/05/2022 at 09:54, Don said:

Hottest June since 1976?

It’s much easier to top the temperatures in the 70s these days!

Edited May 21, 2022 by prolongedSnowLover
Mistake ?

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Going for another warm month 16.9c and 69mm.

[Dancerwithwings]

17 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

 

It’s much easier to top the temperatures in the 70s these days!

Remember it well as I was just 5 and not a care in the world out playing bar than when I was told my tea was ready how how times have changed with kids now, mine now it’s ya tea is ready and they put there devices down and come walking down the stairs  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Very cool opening week, maybe longer with troughing dominant with winds mostly from N/NE

13.9C, 76mm

[richie3846]

15.4c please

[BlueHedgehog074]

Taking a massive gamble, but will go for 16.0*C please. Warm and thundery at times, but a good amount of sunshine at times too. 

[Don]

21 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

 

It’s much easier to top the temperatures in the 70s these days!

And the rest!!

[JeffC]

15.5C and 80mm please

[Dancerwithwings]

2 hours ago, Don said:

And the rest!!

Agreed, We ain’t far from adding the 80’s and 90’s to that

[Dancerwithwings]

15.1c & 79mm ,,,,with thanks

[emmett garland]

17.4 and 33mm please Roger

[StretfordEnd1996]

14.7 please thank you 

 

I'm not expecting anything significantly below average as that just doesn't seem to happen these days but I'm not entirely convinced it will be a much warmer than average month either.

Edited May 24, 2022 by StretfordEnd1996

[Polar Gael]

15.6C and 50.2mm for me please. 

[DR(S)NO]

15.5c and 55mm

thank you please 

[Relativistic]

On 21/05/2022 at 15:18, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s much easier to top the temperatures in the 70s these days!

June's actually the only month that has struggled to record a very high mean since the 70s.

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, Relativistic said:

June's actually the only month that has struggled to record a very high mean since the 70s.

I think it's also been over 100 years since we have had a 14C May too.

[virtualsphere]

14.8C and 108mm please.