June 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Stationary Front]

15.5 with 94mm please

[Walsall Wood Snow]

I'll go for 15.1c please.

[mulzy]

14.8C and 53mm please

[seaside 60]

15.8c

65mm

Please.

[Don]

Very difficult for June and perhaps not looking to be as warm now.  However, my guess is that it will still be a warmer than average month with close to average precipitation.

15.3C and 67mm please.

[damianslaw]

Haven't a clue about June, I've been well out with CET guesses so far this year, always going just a little above average, lets go 15.6 degrees another appreciably above average month following the trend of the year in the main..

I'm tracking 1992 at present.. this year has been very similiar CET wise, that June was 15.7 degrees I think... expecting a turn for the worse in July...

Last June was 15.5 degrees, and 2020 15.3 degrees.

Edited May 31, 2022 by damianslaw

[noname_weather]

15.7C and 83mm

[davehsug]

14.1C and 105mm please.

[February1978]

15.0c and 71mm please

[Daniel*]

14.5C and 89mm thanks  

[snowray]

15.1c and 77mm please.

[J10]

15.1c and 60mm

[Kentish Man]

Going for a bang on average 14.1C 

[Roger J Smith]

Table of Entries for June 2022

 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (entry) ______________ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (entry)

 

17.4 _ 33.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 11 ) _________ 14.9 _ 60.0 _ weather-history ( 19 ) _

16.9 _ 69.0 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 5 ) ______14.9 _ 35.0 _ freeze ( 30 ) _________

16.7 _ 62.0 _ Earthshine ( 1 ) _________________ 14.8 _108.0_ virtualsphere ( 15 ) _

16.5 _ 55.0 _ SLEETY ( L1-2 ) __________________

16.2 _ 81.0 _ rwtwm ( L1-3 ) __________________14.8 _ 45.0 _ summer blizzard ( 28 ) _

16.0 _ ------ _ DiagonalRedLine ( 8 ) ___________14.8 _ 53.0 _ Mulzy ( 39 ) ____________

15.8 _ 65.0 _ seaside60 ( 40 ) _________________

15.7 _ 52.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 27 ) __________14.7 _ ------ _ StretfordEnd1996 ( 12 ) _

15.7 _ 83.0 _ noname_weather ( 43 ) _________14.7 _ 90.0 _ Summer18 ( 17 ) _______

15.6 _ 50.2 _ Polar Gael ( 13 ) _________________14.6 _ 98.8 _ Roger J Smith ( 35 ) ____

15.6 _ 45.0 _ The PIT ( 20 ) _____________________14.6 _ 70.5 _ 1991-2020 averages

15.6 _ 58.0 _ Ed Stone ( 21 ) ___________________14.5 _ 89.0 _ daniel* ( 46 ) ______

15.6 _ 25.0 _ jonboy ( 25 ) _____________________14.5 _ ------ _ Mark Bayley ( 50 ) __

15.6 _ ------ _ damianslaw ( 42 ) _______________ 14.4 _ 77.0 _ NeilN ( 18 ) __________

15.6 _ 58.6 _ Midlands Ice Age ( L1-1 ) ________

15.5 _ 80.0 _ JeffC ( 9 )  ________________________ 14.4 _102.0_ BlastFromThePast ( 33 ) _

15.5 _ 55.0 _ Dr(S)No ( 14 ) _____________________14.4 _ 66.3 _ 1981-2010 averages

15.5 _ 94.0 _ Stationary Front ( 37 ) ___________ 14.3 _ 66.6 _ all-time averages**

15.4 _ ------ _ Richie3846 ( 7 ) __________________ 14.3 _ 94.0 _ coldest winter ( 22 ) __

15.3 _ 73.0 _ Bobd29 ( 4 ) ______________________14.2 _ 66.3 _ summer8906 ( 29 ) ____

15.3 _ 48.0 _ Wold Topper ( 16 ) _______________14.1 _105.0_ davehsug ( 44 ) ______

15.3 _ 67.0 _ Don ( 41 ) _________________________14.1 _ ------ _ Kentish Man ( 49 ) ___

15.3 _ ------ _ Duncan McAlister ( L2-1 ) _______

15.2 _ 56.0 _ Reef ( 24 ) ________________________ 14.0 _ 57.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 23 ) _____

15.2 _ 76.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 36 ) _______________ 13.9 _134.0_ Weather26 ( 3 ) ____

15.1 _ 79.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 10 ) ___________13.9 _ 76.0 _ IRememberAtl252 ( 6 ) _

15.1 _ ------ _ Summer Sun ( 26 ) ________________13.9 _ 65.0 _ syed2878 ( 32 ) _________

15.1 _ ------ _ Walsall Wood Snow ( 37 ) _________13.8 _ 63.0 _ Godber 1 ( 34 ) _________

15.1 _ 77.0 _ snowray ( 47 ) _____________________13.7 _110.0_ Frigid ( 2 ) _______________

15.1 _ 60.0 _ J 10 ( 48 ) __________________________

15.1 _ 67.0 _ consensus 

15.0 _ 68.0 _ Stargazer ( 31 ) ____________________

15.0 _ 71.0 _ February 1978 ( 45 ) ______________

(note: 1981-2010, 1991-2020 averages are recalculated to v2.0, 1992-2021 is 14.8 _ 69.1)

** all-time averages refer to 1659-2021 CET and 1766-2021 EWP

_____________________

Consensus of 54 forecasts incl three marked late one day and one that is two days late, 15.1

----------------------------------------------------------------

 

EWP forecasts in order

 

134_Wx26 ... 110_Frigid ... 108_virt ... 105_dave ... 102_BFTP ... 98.8_RJS ... 94_cw,SF

 90_sum18 ...  89_dan ... 83_non ...  81_rwtwm^ .. 80_JeffC ... 79_dww ... 77_NN, snow ... 76_IRem,MrM ... 

 73_Bobd ... 71_Feb78 ... 70.5_91-20 ...  69_pSL ... 68_star ... 67_Don ... 66.3_sum8906 ... 66.3_81-10

 65_sea, syed ... 63_godber1 ...  60_wx-h, J10 ... 58.6_MIA^ .. 58_EdS ... 57_shil ... 56_Reef ...  55_DR(S),SLE^ ...

 53_Mul ... 52_Earth,Feb91 ... 50.2_PG ... 48_wt ... 45_PIT, sb ... 35_freeze ... 33_EG ... 25_jon

__________________

Consensus of 42 on time forecasts and three marked one day late ( ^ ), 45 total, is 67.0 mm.

 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2022 by Roger J Smith
fixed an error in the order of forecasts

[Mark Bayley]

Dam, 18 mins late. 14.5c please!

Edited May 31, 2022 by Mark Bayley

[Roger J Smith]

Maybe the CET boss will be lenient, Mark, I put that one into the table as "on time" anyway -- not sure what you could learn in that first 18 minutes of June that would be advantageous.  

Once there's new guidance though, late period begins for sure. 

[Mark Bayley]

5 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Maybe the CET boss will be lenient, Mark, I put that one into the table as "on time" anyway -- not sure what you could learn in that first 18 minutes of June that would be advantageous.  

Once there's new guidance though, late period begins for sure. 

Ha, thanks Roger!

[Midlands Ice Age]

Late one from me..

15.6C CET

58.6mms

MIA

 

[SLEETY]

16.5 c. 55mm

[rwtwm]

Whoops, late this time. 16.2c and 81mm please

[Roger J Smith]

Note: These numbers are all from legacy CET not v2.0, have not had time to update these running CET files yet.

The v2.0 daily records can be seen in the thread elsewhere on this forum about the changes from legacy to v2.0. 

All CET values from 1659 to 1852 remain the same so quoted values for 1846 for example will not have changed. 

 

 

1981-2010 Daily CET averages and running CET, with extreme values 1772 to 2021

 

Date __ CET _ cum CET __ MAX _____ MIN _____________ Running CET extremes

01 ____ 13.5 __ 13.5 ___ 20.9 (1781) __ 7.7 (1802&1962) __20.9 (1781) __ 7.7 (1802,1962)

02 ____ 13.8 __ 13.7 ___ 22.3 (1947) __ 7.6 (1991) ________ 21.6 (1947) __ 8.3 (1802)

03 ____ 13.4 __ 13.6 ___ 23.0 (1947) __ 7.9 (1773) ________ 22.0 (1947) __ 8.5 (1975)

04 ____ 13.2 __ 13.5 ___ 20.3 (1982) __ 8.0 (1871&1991) __21.2 (1947) __ 8.7 (1975, 1991)

05 ____ 13.3 __ 13.4 ___ 21.3 (1982) __ 8.2 (1991) ________ 19.6 (1947) __ 8.6 (1991)

06 ____ 13.7 __ 13.5 ___ 22.5 (1950) __ 8.4 (1909) ________ 19.5 (1982) __ 9.2 (1989, 1991)

07 ____ 14.0 __ 13.6 ___ 21.6 (1846) __ 8.6 (1814) ________ 19.2 (1982) __ 9.5 (1989, 1991)

08 ____ 13.9 __ 13.6 ___ 20.4 (1940) __ 8.6 (1881&1914) __19.1 (1982) __ 9.6 (1989)

09 ____ 14.0 __ 13.6 ___ 20.9 (1970) __ 7.3 (1816) ________ 19.0 (1982) __ 9.9 (1989)

10 ____ 14.3 __ 13.7 ___ 21.5 (1970) __ 8.2 (1821) ________ 18.6 (1982) _ 10.4 (1814,1916,1989,1991)

11 ____ 13.6 __ 13.7 ___ 21.0 (1970) __ 8.0 (1777) ________ 18.4 (1830) _ 10.4 (1909, 1991)

12 ____ 13.9 __ 13.7 ___ 20.8 (2006) __ 8.6 (1841) ________ 18.4 (1846) _ 10.4 (1909)

13 ____ 14.0 __ 13.7 ___ 20.5 (1818,1989) _ 8.5 (1901) ____18.5 (1846) _ 10.5 (1916)

14 ____ 14.4 __ 13.8 ___ 19.4 (1814) __ 7.9 (1903) ________ 18.5 (1846) _ 10.5 (1916)

15 ____ 14.2 __ 13.8 ___ 22.9 (1858) __ 8.1 (1850) ________ 18.6 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

16 ____ 14.8 __ 13.9 ___20.7 (1858,1896) _ 9.6 (1869) ____ 18.7 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

17 ____ 15.0 __ 13.9 ___ 21.4 (1917) __ 9.1 (1928) ________ 18.8 (1846) _ 10.6 (1916)

18 ____ 14.8 __ 14.0 ___ 21.2 (2005) __ 8.1 (1855) ________ 18.9 (1846) _ 10.7 (1916)

19 ____ 15.2 __ 14.1 ___ 22.1 (2005)*__ 7.3 (1795) ________ 19.0 (1846) _ 10.7 (1916)

20 ____ 15.1 __ 14.1 ___ 21.7 (1846) __ 9.0 (1795&1964) __ 19.1 (1846) _ 10.7 (1916)

21 ____ 14.4 __ 14.1 ___ 22.7 (1817) __ 9.8 (1903) ________ 19.1 (1846) _ 10.9 (1916)

22 ____ 14.6 __ 14.1 ___ 22.3 (1941) __ 9.0 (1823) ________ 19.2 (1846) _ 11.0 (1916)

23 ____ 14.8 __ 14.2 ___ 21.8 (1935) __ 9.4 (1823) ________ 19.0 (1846) _ 11.2 (1916)

24 ____ 14.9 __ 14.2 ___ 22.0 (1935) __10.1 (1784)________ 18.8 (1846) _ 11.4 (1916)

25 ____ 15.3 __ 14.2 ___ 22.6 (2020) __ 8.7 (1835) ________ 18.6 (1846) _ 11.5 (1916)

26 ____ 15.3 __ 14.3 ___ 22.3 (1976) __ 9.7 (1835) ________ 18.5 (1846) _ 11.5 (1916)

27 ____ 15.6 __ 14.3 ___ 22.8 (1826) __10.2 (1862)________ 18.4 (1846) _ 11.6 (1916)

28 ____ 15.6 __ 14.4 ___ 22.6 (1976) __ 9.4 (1812) ________ 18.3 (1846) _ 11.7 (1909,1916)

29 ____ 16.0 __ 14.4 ___ 22.4 (1976) __ 9.7 (1839) ________ 18.3 (1846) _ 11.7 (1916)

30 ____ 15.8 __ 14.5 ___ 22.1 (1976) __ 9.1 (1839) ________ 18.2 (1846) _ 11.8 (1909,16,72)*

_____________________________________________________________________

* 19th (2005) was updated to 23.2 in v2.0 and that is now the warmest June daily mean. 3rd June 1947 was adjusted down to 22.9. 

* 11.5 before daily data began in 1675, that month may have had other earlier lower values than shown here. 

______________________________________________________________________

==================================================================

1991-2020 CET daily averages, and running CET averages

01 __ 13.8 __ 13.8 _______ 11 __ 13.9 __ 13.9 _______ 21 __ 14.8 __ 14.3 _______

02 __ 14.2 __ 14.0 _______ 12 __ 14.0 __ 13.9 _______ 22 __ 14.7 __ 14.3 _______

03 __ 13.5 __ 13.8 _______ 13 __ 14.2 __ 13.9 _______ 23 __ 15.2 __ 14.4 _______

04 __ 13.3 __ 13.7 _______ 14 __ 14.5 __ 14.0 _______ 24 __ 15.3 __ 14.4 _______

05 __ 13.4 __ 13.6 _______ 15 __ 14.4 __ 14.0 _______ 25 __ 15.6 __ 14.4 _______

06 __ 14.0 __ 13.7 _______ 16 __ 14.8 __ 14.0 _______ 26 __ 15.8 __ 14.5 _______

07 __ 14.2 __ 13.8 _______ 17 __ 15.2 __ 14.1 _______ 27 __ 16.1 __ 14.6 _______

08 __ 14.1 __ 13.8 _______ 18 __ 15.1 __ 14.2 _______ 28 __ 15.8 __ 14.6 _______

09 __ 14.0 __ 13.8 _______ 19 __ 15.4 __ 14.2 _______ 29 __ 16.0 __ 14.6 _______

10 __ 14.3 __ 13.9 _______ 20 __ 15.2 __ 14.3 _______ 30 __ 16.1 __ 14.7 _______

=============================================

[Summer Sun]

12.0c to the 1st

2.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.0c on the 1st
Current low this month 12.0c on the 1st

[Duncan McAlister]

Hope I’m not too late this month - 15.3

[Summer Sun]

12.2c to the 2nd

1.9c below the 61 to 90 average
1.5c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 12.2c on the 2nd
Current low this month 12.0c on the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

EWP opened up with just 0.3 mm on first, approx 2 mm now ... ten-day GFS grid average near 30 mm, some heavy rainfall indicated around days 12-13 also, estimate near 50 mm by 19th.

CET looks near normal most of the time on current guidance, would probably edge up into 13s next week and low 14s by mid-month to 20th.