June 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[StretfordEnd1996]

16 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Hard to say where this month will end up. The hot spell we still don’t know how intense or long lasting it will be but it will definitely provide a boost, but then I’ve seen quite a lot of charts showing cool weather resume so I don’t think it’s a done deal for an overly warm month. If I were to say a guess it would be anywhere in the 14 or 15s, all depending on where we go in the final two weeks. 

Should the rest of the month post this Friday/Saturday turn out to be similar to the opening 13 days or so, it would indeed be something of a reflection of the current day and age of predominantly crazy uppers and associated ground temps we get nowadays (when we get brief little incursions of air up from the South) if this month's CET comes out notably above average i.e. 1.0+ - all caused by this crazy bout of heat for 24-48 hours this weekend. I personally would not be surprised but it's so hard to say.

I personally feel it may indeed hugely reduce the chances of it being a colder than average month but I'd still for now expect it to come something between 0.0 and 1.0 above average.

[richie3846]

13 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

14.0c to the 11th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 14.0c on the 11th
Current low this month 12.0c on the 1st

It's notable how quickly we returned to average, after a chilly start to the month. I did not expect to see such a quick bounce back considering the weather has been fairly typical over the last few days, it seems that the last few days must have been above average to pull up the cool days at the beginning of the month.

[LetItSnow!]

5 hours ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Should the rest of the month post this Friday/Saturday turn out to be similar to the opening 13 days or so, it would indeed be something of a reflection of the current day and age of predominantly crazy uppers and associated ground temps we get nowadays (when we get brief little incursions of air up from the South) if this month's CET comes out notably above average i.e. 1.0+ - all caused by this crazy bout of heat for 24-48 hours this weekend. I personally would not be surprised but it's so hard to say.

I personally feel it may indeed hugely reduce the chances of it being a colder than average month but I'd still for now expect it to come something between 0.0 and 1.0 above average.

looking at Gavin's forecast for the next ten days, the reason I'm not expecting an overly warm June is that it's a two day affair and then we could go into a northwesterly type pattern, either settled or unsettled - but if that does occur then it would very much limit how far the C.E.T. could rise, though June is still a warming month from start to end. Perhaps we may find the C.E.T. rises into the high 14s to mid 15s and then ticks down slowly back into the 14s, where in the 14s that is depends entirely on how hot Friday and Saturday are. The most of the heat is restricted to southern and eastern areas so stations in the northern region of the C.E.T. zone may limit any record breaking days just a little. Anything in the upper 13s (unlikely) to high14s is where I'm thinking, but the 15s could be reached if we see very warm or hot weather build in again. 

Edited June 13, 2022 by LetItSnow!

[Earthshine]

18 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

looking at Gavin's forecast for the next ten days, the reason I'm not expecting an overly warm June is that it's a two day affair and then we could go into a northwesterly type pattern, either settled or unsettled - but if that does occur then it would very much limit how far the C.E.T. could rise, though June is still a warming month from start to end. Perhaps we may find the C.E.T. rises into the high 14s to mid 15s and then ticks down slowly back into the 14s, where in the 14s that is depends entirely on how hot Friday and Saturday are. The most of the heat is restricted to southern and eastern areas so stations in the northern region of the C.E.T. zone may limit any record breaking days just a little. Anything in the upper 13s (unlikely) to high14s is where I'm thinking, but the 15s could be reached if we see very warm or hot weather build in again. 

The long anticipated cooler spell later into June still isn't set in stone.  This plume came out of nowhere and I wouldn't be surprised to see another in a couple of weeks time.  Also slight indications that temperatures will recover above average after a cooler spell later this weekend.

[Don]

8 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

The long anticipated cooler spell later into June still isn't set in stone.  This plume came out of nowhere and I wouldn't be surprised to see another in a couple of weeks time.  Also slight indications that temperatures will recover above average after a cooler spell later this weekend.

That's what I've been saying and the same thing happened during summer's 2019 and 2020.

[LetItSnow!]

11 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

The long anticipated cooler spell later into June still isn't set in stone.  This plume came out of nowhere and I wouldn't be surprised to see another in a couple of weeks time.  Also slight indications that temperatures will recover above average after a cooler spell later this weekend.

I agree that nothing is set in stone and these plumes can come out of nowhere but I only make guesses based on what I can see on the models within the next ten days or so - and to be fair, watching Gavin's latest video did show a general agreement of some form of west/northwesterly pattern developing, though if within high pressure it would be warm by day and give 15C means which would put the C.E.T. at a bit of a standstill. We shall see.

[Summer Sun]

14.0c to the 12th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 14.0c on the 11th & 12th
Current low this month 12.0c on the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 13.7C +0.7C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Edited June 13, 2022 by The PIT

[Roger J Smith]

EWP is at 26.2 mm and looks likely to add only 5-10 mm from the ten-day GFS output, with little more days 11 to 17 (day 17 inferred from day 16 map to remain dry). That would yield a total of perhaps 35 mm, close to the forecast of contest leader freeze and above those of only two others (Emmett Garland at 33 mm, jonboy at 25 mm). 

Would expect the CET to rise steadily this week into next, levelling off eventually in 15.5 to 16.0 range towards end, if current output is valid. I've been away from the internet for several days on a road trip and the current output looks a lot drier, more stable (and somewhat warmer) than the last runs I recall seeing. We have five forecasts warmer than 16.0 and about the same number in high 15s, the choices begin to cluster from 15.6 down. 

(edit _ later GFS run at 00z would add more rain in the last week and could see the EWP increasing to 50 mm. The CET indicated is quite warm, despite a few cooler days at the end, and I estimate it finishes around 15.9 C). 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Mark Smithy]

Morning.

Anyone know why the Met Office have stopped doing their daily CET updates? I always enjoy checking them and they seem to have ceased:

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean2022.html

 

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, Mark Smithy said:

Morning.

Anyone know why the Met Office have stopped doing their daily CET updates? I always enjoy checking them and they seem to have ceased:

 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean2022.html

 

Yes, they have a new version of CET known as v2.0, while the old version is now called the legacy CET and ceased updating as of 1st of May. 

You'll find what you're missing here: 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

and the rest of the CET data sets can be accessed from the top of that page. There is a thread here in this forum discussing the changes to the old version of CET to this newer version. You may have to scroll down into page two of the menu to find it now. 

[DanBailey79]

On 31/05/2022 at 23:45, J10 said:

15.1c and 60mm

Hi J10. will you be writing your famous Glastonbury Festival forecasts with the mudometre levels?

[Mark Smithy]

7 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Yes, they have a new version of CET known as v2.0, while the old version is now called the legacy CET and ceased updating as of 1st of May. 

You'll find what you're missing here: 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

and the rest of the CET data sets can be accessed from the top of that page. There is a thread here in this forum discussing the changes to the old version of CET to this newer version. You may have to scroll down into page two of the menu to find it now. 

Oh many thanks Roger. 

[Summer Sun]

14.0c to the 13th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 14.0c on the 11th, 12th & 13th
Current low this month 12.0c on the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

Today's guidance somewhat cooler after this coming Saturday, with a brief unsettled interval followed by an essentially dry last third with perhaps slightly above normal temperatures after the very warm interval developing later this week. Looks generally good for that Glastonbury festival (which I see is 22-26 June). Would imagine that on this guidance, final values would be around 15.5, 40 mm.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffeild still at 13.7C +0.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

Next few days up to Saturday should see a big rise. After that a brief cool down so a drop likely.

[Summer Sun]

14.0c to the 14th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 14.0c on the 11th, 12th, 13th & 14th
Current low this month 12.0c on the 1st

[damianslaw]

Could be one of those months when a shortlived spell of exceptional warmth returns a moderately high final CET mean but take it out of the equation and a very average month is the main story. These southerly plumes seem to be a recurring theme of recent summers and the most likely way of seeing extreme heat. Not a fan of them in the slightest give me a sustained homegrown high pressure heat formation. Anyhow in Cumbria our high will be 70f ..

Edited June 15, 2022 by damianslaw

[Don]

11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Could be one of those months when a shortlived spell of exceptional warmth returns a moderately high final CET mean but take it out of the equation and a very average month is the main story. These southerly plumes seem to be a recurring theme of recent summers and the most likely way of seeing extreme heat. Not a fan of them in the slightest give me a sustained homegrown high pressure heat formation. Anyhow in Cumbria our high will be 70f ..

Yes, you look to escape the plume!  I wouldn't like to guess where the final CET will end up as it could finish well into the 15's or close to average.  However, I think above average is most more likely.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Don

[Summer Sun]

14.1c to the 15th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 14.0c on the 15th
Current low this month 12.0c on the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

Looks rather cool for the last week on current guidance, might force CET values back down into 14s after they reach low 15s through this coming warm spell and perhaps sustain that next week. EWP would likely finish around 50-55 mm on current guidance. Half of the increase would be in that last week.

[Earthshine]

Maximum CET back to warmer than average.  19.1C and likely to warm further after today.  This year has been quite remarkable, every month has had a maximum CET at least 1.6C above the 1961-1990 average (with two of the 6 months having anomalies greater than 3C+ above average).  

[Summer Sun]

14.3c to the 16th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
0.4c above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 14.3c on the 16th
Current low this month 12.0c on the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

Today's record CET values (v2.0) are 27.2 (1957) for the max and 21.3 (1917) for the mean, both are 0.1 lower now than in the legacy CET. We'll know tomorrow if either of those records has fallen. Current temperatures include 29C at Pershore and 30C in the Oxford region so I would imagine that maximum has fallen. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 14.4C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall 18.6mm 24.2% of the monthly average.