June 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

EWP has stayed level at 26.3 mm and will only add about 5 mm in the next ten days, as East Anglia has a local maximum near 30 mm and many other regions remain almost dry. The last three days beyond that give some prospects for moderate rainfalls but of course that is rather speculative, so the month could finish anywhere from 30 to 55 mm depending on how those work out.

The CET probably gained 0.4 or even 0.5 today and will stay near 15 C for about a week, could drop slightly after that. Another peak of warmth is coming along around Thursday 23rd which is perhaps when the month will peak. I reckon that forecasts in the 14s are well placed at this point. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 14.8C. +1.3C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

At the moment June for us just in the top ten of driest months but is unlikely to stay there though. It does a have good change of getting into the warmest top ten which is impressive considering  it's only had two days above 25C and only 8 days above 20C so far.

[Roger J Smith]

Not seeing any updates for 17th yet so can't say if any records broken. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield back down to 14.6C +1.0C above normal. Rainfall up to 20.8mm 27% of the monthly average

[Summer Sun]

Still no update from Hadley, which remains on 14.3c to the 16th

[Earthshine]

Weather stations must've been fried on Friday (or should that be... Fried-ay? Sorry ).

[Dancerwithwings]

Atm the N/W tracker, it’s at 15.36c

Edited June 20, 2022 by Dancerwithwings

[Don]

3 hours ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Atm the N/W tracker, it’s at 15.36c

I imagine the Hadley CET is probably around or just above 15C now.

[Earthshine]

Maximum CET at 19.4°C which is 0.9°C above the 1961-1990 average.  Will probably climb higher this week.

[reef]

It has updated:

14.6c to the 20th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

Friday came in at 21.0C, so 0.7C below the date record set in 1846 (or 0.2C on CET v2 in 1957).

Edited June 21, 2022 by reef

[Don]

47 minutes ago, reef said:

It has updated:

14.6c to the 20th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

Friday came in at 21.0C, so 0.7C below the date record set in 1846 (or 0.2C on CET v2 in 1957).

I was expecting it to be higher than that but there you are.

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, Don said:

I was expecting it to be higher than that but there you are.

Some pretty chilly nights recently.  Also Sunday was very cool and grim

[LetItSnow!]

4 hours ago, reef said:

It has updated:

14.6c to the 20th

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

Friday came in at 21.0C, so 0.7C below the date record set in 1846 (or 0.2C on CET v2 in 1957).

Way lower than even I was expecting. Got some very warm days coming this week which will boost it but then shaping up to turn cooler and more unsettled after... I'm thinking overall a very unexceptional C.E.T. this month - perhaps in the mid/upper 14s? I think the 1991-2020 average is 14.7 whether we come in above or below that is to be seen. If it is around that figure then it will be the third month this year to have a very average C.E.T. (compared to 1991-2020).

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.8C +1.1C above normal. Rainfall 20.8mm 27% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

From what I'm seeing, the max on Friday 17th was 28.2 and that tied the mark set in 1957 (v2.0), while the daily mean of 21.0 is 0.3 shy of the 1917 mark (Reef, the 1846 mark of 21.7 was on the 20th of that year). So the record high was tied and the daily mean almost but not quite broken. 

Also for future reference, the highest running CET was 14.7 on both Friday 17th and Sat 18th, then it fell back to the current levels of 14.6 with the cooler values over the past two days (by my calculation).

[Roger J Smith]

EWP now the one not updating but has added maybe 5-6 mm to reach 31-32 mm, and the 9.5 day estimate from GFS earlier was 20-25 mm with the western half of the grid higher, the eastern half lower. That would make for totals around 55 mm, slightly below average, although you could see how it might get closer to 65 mm and average. (for the contest I use the 1991-2020 average as "normal" for scoring). 

CET does not look like it is under much pressure to go down further than it just did, and some warmer days in the mix, might end up back in the high 14s to near 15.0 near end of month. All in all a very unremarkable June I think (not being there so would prefer your opinions). 

[LetItSnow!]

28 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP now the one not updating but has added maybe 5-6 mm to reach 31-32 mm, and the 9.5 day estimate from GFS earlier was 20-25 mm with the western half of the grid higher, the eastern half lower. That would make for totals around 55 mm, slightly below average, although you could see how it might get closer to 65 mm and average. (for the contest I use the 1991-2020 average as "normal" for scoring). 

CET does not look like it is under much pressure to go down further than it just did, and some warmer days in the mix, might end up back in the high 14s to near 15.0 near end of month. All in all a very unremarkable June I think (not being there so would prefer your opinions). 

I can attest to it not feeling like anything special, bar quite dry. Felt cool for the first ten days or so and only the 17th felt overly hot. With a mix of warm and cool on the horizon I doubt that will change much.

[Summer Sun]

14.6c to the 21st

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average
0.5c above the 81 to 10 average

 

Edited June 22, 2022 by Summer Sun

[Durham Weather]

Delightful Durham now up to 14.8C to the 21st, which is +1.2C on the 91-20 average.

Rainfall total is 14.8mm (current dry spell of 14 days)

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall still at 20.8mm 27% of the monthly average.

Looks like we will end up between 15C and 15.5C. No cool weather in the outlook a few average nights but day times staying on the warm side. 

Edited June 22, 2022 by The PIT

[Earthshine]

I'd say this has been a pretty good June so far.  Plenty of 20-24°C here which I'd say is pretty good going for June.  Looking forward to hotter weather next month.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Earthshine said:

I'd say this has been a pretty good June so far.  Plenty of 20-24°C here which I'd say is pretty good going for June.  Looking forward to hotter weather next month.

Yes, apart from the early days in the month, I would say this June has been fairly decent.  Hopefully it won't be too hot next month, although I expect we will see more heat spikes at the very least, with temperatures exceeding those of last Friday.

[Roger J Smith]

No CET updates today, would estimate we are back to 14.7 after Wed 22nd rather warm, if no updates tomorrow would say 14.8 or 14.9 as today very warm. That might be about the peak with somewhat cooler and unsettled weather to follow. Month seems fairly likely to finish around where it is now. 

The EWP has updated to 32.6 mm and with not much since that was posted, the 7.5 day forecast is only around 15 mm on average, the heavier rainfalls are heading for the emerald isle and the west in particular, in Britain it looks like 15-25 mm west and 5-15 mm east to top up the month. For my own forecast I need that heavy rain to spill over into Britain but I guess that's not very nice for everyone else ... so will estimate the finish at around 50 mm. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 15.1C +1.2C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

[Roger J Smith]

No updates but CET probably on 14.9 and perhaps 15.0, the last two days were around 17.5 and 18.5 and today's mean is also fairly close to 15 so the value by tomorrow will likely be 15.0 if not available. That may turn out to be a high point although it likely wouldn't fall more than two or three tenths at most. If it were exactly 15.0 after 24 days and averaged 12 (a rather cool value for late June) for six days, the result would be 14.4 but from 13.5 it would be 14.7. Seems like they don't do any end of month revising any more, will have to check that, they didn't seem to touch the May numbers once provided.