June 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

At 14.9 degrees, yes above the 61-90 average, but the same as the 00-21 average and only ever so slightly above the 91-20 average. With these benchmarks in mind I would call it a very average month, despite the shot of heat. Here in Cumbria distinctly average if not a touch below par.

[Don]

A reasonable June here, albeit a bit too cloudy!

[Stationary Front]

Surprised, thought it may be higher, I think Pitt had 15.7 in Sheffield and my local (Bablake Weather Coventry) had 15.5. I would of thought stations south and east would have been similar- was it stations NW that gave it a final sub 15??

[Don]

1 hour ago, Stationary Front said:

Surprised, thought it may be higher, I think Pitt had 15.7 in Sheffield and my local (Bablake Weather Coventry) had 15.5. I would of thought stations south and east would have been similar- was it stations NW that gave it a final sub 15??

Yes and the Netweather temperature tracker had the CET at 15.77C.  As I said in a previous post, the Netweather tracker often runs above Hadley but normally no more than 0.5C.

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP has been posted at 50.2 mm, same as the tracker. That means all posts made concerning the EWP scoring are confirmed and do not require any adjustments. 

[Roger J Smith]

Note that freeze is now leading both CET and EWP annual contests, and Feb91blizzard is 8th (CET) and 2nd (EWP). 

I updated that post made about a week ago concerning the performance of consensus, and two recent normals, where I outlined that adding 1.2 to the 1991-2020 normal was the best "automated" strategy you could use. On the slight adjustment of this post I noted that consensus is now slightly ahead of 1991-2020 normal, probably because our consensus has five times out of seven gone above that mark. When I first posted, richie3846 was in the lead from May results and actually still has a lower average error than freeze by .01 (0.50 to 0.51) but both of them are better than the optimal strategy (+1.2) which yields 0.57 and would be in third place currently. Our consensus would be around 11th to 14th depending on how many incomplete entries you count (rankings are available for anyone who has missed fewer than three contests). Our consensus is even better in the EWP contest and so are the two normals. I didn't show them in the scoring table but as of June, 1991-2020 has a higher points total than the contest leader (1992-2021 is just ahead of 2nd place), and 1981-2010 ranks around 5th with consensus a bit behind 6th. 

So in both contests, you would do well to follow the 1991-2020 normals.