Atlantic Hurricane season / Invest thread 2022 on

[Duncan McAlister]

11 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Any hurricane on the way?

Don’t worry, there isn’t

[SnowBear]

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Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

 

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$

Forecaster Latto

[damianslaw]

Are we expecting an active season. Seems a very slow start this year. 

[SnowBear]

9 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Are we expecting an active season. Seems a very slow start this year. 

NOAA were predicting in May an active season, but yes, it's very quiet. Still time yet though. 

[matty40s]

Clutching at straw(singular)

 

[SnowBear]

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Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: A weak low pressure area located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Only slight development of this system is possible while it moves west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph and approaches the Texas coast later today and tonight, then moves inland over southern Texas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. The reconnaissance aircraft mission scheduled for later today has been canceled.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

For more information on the system, see products issued by the National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Brown

[Derecho]

2013 was another season which had a La Nina but was especially quiet. Saharan dust just limited formation for the whole season. 2007 was also similar, two major hurricanes but barely anything else of note. Both seasons had below average ACE totals. A few years in the 1970s also were quiet with La Nina's, though SSTs were way below average during these years over the main development region.

[SnowBear]

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Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Atlantic Ocean:

A broad trough of low pressure continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Atlantic several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur due to generally unfavorable environmental conditions while the disturbance moves slowly north-northwestward or northward during the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[Thunders]

Is this something? It’s over the yucatan in mexico 

[SnowBear]

2 hours ago, Thunders said:

Is this something? It’s over the yucatan in mexico 

Its one that is being watched, 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm once it enters the GoM. 

Possible invest/recon tomorrow. 

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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico have become a little better organized since yesterday. This system is forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, where an area of low pressure could form. After that, additional slow development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[Thunders]

11 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

Its one that is being watched, 30% chance of becoming a tropical storm once it enters the GoM. 

Possible invest/recon tomorrow. 

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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico have become a little better organized since yesterday. This system is forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, where an area of low pressure could form. After that, additional slow development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

I wondered why a watch had been issued lol

 

[aggy]

No hurricanes in Mexico please until September 8th I fly out on Wednesday and Cabot believe how quiet it’s been ! Hoping it’s not about to un leash 

[Thunders]

4 minutes ago, aggy said:

No hurricanes in Mexico please until September 8th I fly out on Wednesday and Cabot believe how quiet it’s been ! Hoping it’s not about to un leash 

I think it will hit more northern Mexico  between Tampico and Corpus Christi 

If it turned into a tropical depression or tropical storm

[The Tall Weatherman]

The first interesting system of the year is developing. From what I have seen the environment seems conducive for development with the storm not being a sheared mess. Hurricane hunters are out for it as well !

Edited August 19, 2022 by The Tall Weatherman

[karyo]

7 hours ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

The first interesting system of the year is developing. From what I have seen the environment seems conducive for development with the storm not being a sheared mess. Hurricane hunters are out for it as well !

It is organising in the Bay of Campeche. 60% chance of development according to NHC.

[SnowBear]

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1050 AM EDT Fri Aug 19 2022

 

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche are getting better organized. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form later today oron Saturday while the system moves northwestward across the southwestern and western Gulf of Mexico. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. Interests along the northeastern coast of Mexico and the lower Texas coast should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, this system could bring locally heavy rains to portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas over the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Beven

Edited August 19, 2022 by SnowBear

[summer blizzard]

Models also flagging development of the second low exiting Africa around the 24th.

[damianslaw]

Might we be seeing a very late start this year, but one that begins rapidly..

[SnowBear]

System in GoM is now at 70% chance to form a tropic system. The window for formation is quite small though. 

As mentioned above we now see a wave foracast to move off the coast of Africa, currently 20% chance of tropical storm formation over 5 days. 

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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 AM EDT Sat Aug 20 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa later today and tonight. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early to middle part of next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

Forecaster Roberts

[SnowBear]

Time is rapidly running out for the GoM disturbance to form anything meaningful. Now down to 50% chance. 

The wave coming off Africa is the same as before, 0% chance in 48 hrs, and as conditions are only "marginally" favourable, 20% over 5 days. 

We wait some more! 

 

[karyo]

The disturbance in the GOM ended up being a flop and the other one in cabo verde looks less healthy today.

We are still waiting for this season to ignite...

[Duncan McAlister]

Has there ever been an ‘active’ season with zero activity in August?

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/accuweather-issues-update-to-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/1234187

[summer blizzard]

26 minutes ago, Duncan McAlister said:

Has there ever been an ‘active’ season with zero activity in August?

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/accuweather-issues-update-to-2022-atlantic-hurricane-season-forecast/1234187

2002 and 2013 are the most recent seasons to wait until September to produce a hurricane. 2002 then produced four with two majors. 2013 produced only two hurricanes, no majors.

Essentially we are probably looking at little meaningful activity even if we produce weak crud.

[Don]

On 21/08/2022 at 10:46, karyo said:

The disturbance in the GOM ended up being a flop and the other one in cabo verde looks less healthy today.

We are still waiting for this season to ignite...

It was merely just turning in its slumber!  Alarm set for September.....

[SnowBear]

Grasping at straws here... A small chance... 

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Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms have become a little more concentrated today in association with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto