Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

Cheshire Freeze
 Share
Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please double-check the contents of your post before hitting submit to make sure it is model related. For general discussion about the weather this autumn, the Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps and Chat is already very active, so please head over there.

Recommended Posts

MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs only has 28 to 30 degrees friday!safe to say ukv has lost the plot!!dunno what it  is playing at to be fair!!!considering its a high reso model and highly regarded dont think it gona do itself any favours!!!needs to go back the drawing board lol!

Met Office going for 34’C in their latest news release  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Met Office going for 34’C in their latest news release  

Dunno man!!!!i just think ukv gona be wrong!!it has been a pretty hopeless model in the past and at a very short time frame as well!!i hope im wrong matt!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Earthshine Seasoned

Earthshine

Posted
  • Location: Exeter
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny!
  • Location: Exeter
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

You're not wrong and I do agree to some extent, but surely this logic should be applied to all of the models because they all begin their runs with the same observational data so should have somewhat similar errors (obviously I know the model physics differ slightly). But as I said in my previous comment, the UKV having the highest resolution means it should still perform slightly better regarding the peak max temps for this Friday (whether that be 32C or 36C), regardless of whether one of the variables is slightly off or not. Maybe saying it would be a 'disaster' is a bit far, but this brief hot blast will definitely give us a good insight into how we should perceive the models (& UKV in particular) going forward when we are expecting extreme heat.

Interestingly how these models work is that it's a continuous process.  You start with an "assimilation window", a period of time where you collect observations and essentially find the statistically optimum "distance" between your observations and your background (which would normally be the previous forecast) based on their respective errors.  Depending on a number of factors, such as how long your assimilation window is to what approximation schemes you use in your NWP model, you may end up with forecasts that differ by a couple of degree.  4D-Var (3 space dimensions + 1 time) is currently used to assimilate observations in dynamic variational analysis.

This explains it far better than I can! https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2017/20-years-4d-var-better-forecasts-through-better-use-observations

Edited by Earthshine
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Met Office going for 34’C in their latest news release  

Date record on Friday is 33.9C, so could be under threat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Roadrunner Enthusiast

Roadrunner

Posted
  • Location: Romford, Essex
  • Location: Romford, Essex
Posted

Can I ask a stupid question to the more knowledgeable please. The convergence zone where this rain is coming from on Saturday / Sunday - what needs to happen ideally for this to be either toned down or moved into the channel / let France have it? Is this even possible? 

Weekend plans are once again in jeopardy tis all - I'll be in Oxfordshire. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
11 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Can I ask a stupid question to the more knowledgeable please. The convergence zone where this rain is coming from on Saturday / Sunday - what needs to happen ideally for this to be either toned down or moved into the channel / let France have it? Is this even possible? 

Weekend plans are once again in jeopardy tis all - I'll be in Oxfordshire. 

image.thumb.png.ced499ab01cbd9d38c8295712955cc33.pngimage.thumb.png.e71e041590876c331332655fc607f0d2.pngimage.thumb.png.fc09d12321ddfc00cd3ef41730407abf.pngimage.thumb.png.5f5114b165e1b4c2cee124754a4c85a8.png
image.thumb.png.a715f357990cf4da2cb0d3355844b9b7.pngimage.thumb.png.ac51a1ba6439041b9a290a181a6acedd.pngimage.thumb.png.c7d6ea9a3405ab3c623146adc265e0d3.pngimage.thumb.png.44636546a6913b313da4204b5f951a18.png

The real troublemaker looks to be this feature spinning up from France late Saturday into Sunday. This has very heavy rain embedded....so your best bet would be that it doesn't develop in the way the models show today and stays further south. This would keep the bulk of the rain the other side of the channel.

Something like the ICON 6z run would be better for Oxfordshire. It develops the low to the N/NE, but the one to the south stays in France with its heavy rain.

image.thumb.png.5d20af8b321e93db127defd83cca0b55.pngimage.thumb.png.47857ba6095ea43e2196bf071dd39815.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted
1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Dunno man!!!!i just think ukv gona be wrong!!it has been a pretty hopeless model in the past and at a very short time frame as well!!i hope im wrong matt!!

Where are you getting that from? It's probably about the best model for the UK. All models have their moments, as nothing it right 100% of the time, but it's certainly never been hopeless in my experience. 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted

Latest from @Jo Farrow on what the models are showing later this week and into the weekend. 

sunscreen.jpeg

favicon.ico Preparing for UK hot weather. Will the Friday heat last into the weekend?

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV
An update on the hot weather building this week. The peak does look to be on Friday with temperatures moving into the 30s Celsius but what about Saturday?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
33 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Metoffice going for 34C on Friday and 33C on Saturday ☀️??

Latest 06z ecm 30+ degrees  midlands east anglia and south east on friday!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Polaris Aficionado

Polaris

Posted
  • Location: Woburn
  • Location: Woburn
Posted
14 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Latest 06z ecm 30+ degrees  midlands east anglia and south east on friday!!!

I’m with Meto latest at 34c rather than ECM. 
 

Meto really going for 34c across SE, Northern Home Counties - BBC as well. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Just having a scan through the models today and for my location near Benson, majority of the models had a max temp here of 21C including GFS, ECM & UKMO whereas UKV has 23C. Currently 22.5C and rising, already goes to show the models underestimating max temps by a degree or two.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

Just having a scan through the models today and for my location near Benson, majority of the models had a max temp here of 21C including GFS, ECM & UKMO whereas UKV has 23C. Currently 22.5C and rising, already goes to show the models underestimating max temps by a degree or two.

Fair chance the June heat record will go Friday.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

Good old reliable Navgem with a high of 36'C, and probably higher if we could see a higher resolution version.

Shame it's a hopeless model 

navgem_9_84czj5.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Good old reliable Navgem with a high of 36'C, and probably higher if we could see a higher resolution version.

Shame it's a hopeless model 

navgem_9_84czj5.png

Hey - don't go picking on NAVGEM! Where else are we going to see forecast summer highs of 40c+ for the UK?  

I think I remember it showing 41/42c a couple of years ago!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty hollows Experienced

Frosty hollows

Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
Posted
26 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Just having a scan through the models today and for my location near Benson, majority of the models had a max temp here of 21C including GFS, ECM & UKMO whereas UKV has 23C. Currently 22.5C and rising, already goes to show the models underestimating max temps by a degree or two.

Just topped 25 IMBY, though admittedly I'm in a sheltered spot

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
29 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Just having a scan through the models today and for my location near Benson, majority of the models had a max temp here of 21C including GFS, ECM & UKMO whereas UKV has 23C. Currently 22.5C and rising, already goes to show the models underestimating max temps by a degree or two.

Ecm went for 20 degrees today for my area but instead its 23 now!!!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Liam Burge Rising Star

Liam Burge

Posted
  • Location: Bristol // Bridgwater
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bristol // Bridgwater
Posted
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm went for 20 degrees today for my area but instead its 23 now!!!

Was predicted around 19-20c here and it's currently 23 as well.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
13 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Latest icon spares me the saturday washout!!different story towards london and south east!

More suppressed on the plume and brings the cooler air down faster 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

More suppressed on the plume and brings the cooler air down faster 

I’m tending to ignore this, pretty sure the metoffice wouldn’t be publicly pumping for 33C on Saturday if they didn’t have some reasonable confidence the heat is going to hang around. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

I’m tending to ignore this, pretty sure the metoffice wouldn’t be publicly pumping for 33C on Saturday if they didn’t have some reasonable confidence the heat is going to hang around. 

Can someone link to the met office forecast for 33c on Saturday ?

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

More suppressed on the plume and brings the cooler air down faster 

I will take that mate!!!rather go straight to sunny cooler and dry than wet humid deluge and then cooler and sunny!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Author
Posted
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Can someone link to the met office forecast for 33c on Saturday ?

They’re forecasting 17c here for Saturday. So I’d imagine any heat will be concentrated down S. At this range, it could just as easily be over France by the time Saturday comes around. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...