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Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives


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Please double-check the contents of your post before hitting submit to make sure it is model related. For general discussion about the weather this autumn, the Autumn 2022 - Moans, Ramps and Chat is already very active, so please head over there.

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I will take that mate!!!rather go straight to sunny cooler and dry than wet humid deluge and then cooler and sunny!!!

Problem is the icon is cooler and showery, it stops the high having a small ridge over the UK after the inevitable cool down. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

Hot off the presses, literally. The Arpege brings the 20'C isotherm widely across England and Wales. Steaming.

arpege_31_78_0vao5.png

Edited by MattStoke
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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Can someone link to the met office forecast for 33c on Saturday ?

I'm assuming it's from a local forecast using the 03z UKV data. That shows an early peak to the leftover heat in the SE and chiefly near to the south coast on Saturday, with a few points which are likely to be 32-33c ish in there. 

sat1.png sat2.png sat3.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Is it me or does saturday look better and more warmer on the 12z?!rain incoming for the evening though!

Aye the 12z is very wet Saturday night. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Aye the 12z is very wet Saturday night. 

Will probably find that moves to daytime Sunday, away from the NW, meaning a repeat of 13th, 20th Feb, and 5th June, complete washout

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing

The weekend is becoming a forecasters nightmare gfs still has touching 30 degrees Saturday for south east then dropping to single figures Sunday, Friday is looking like a scorcher 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

image.thumb.png.2caab6425e6f454c8503668b991d490e.pngimage.thumb.png.6fdc7833791548929b7604339fe9214d.pngimage.thumb.png.befc0bfa157436b6b3365aaea1ed5696.png

ARPEGE has a few 35c's about at 2-4pm on Friday in varying locations 

Edited by mb018538
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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

Temperatures on the rise from tomorrow with the heat arriving on Fri lifting temperatures up into the high twenties/low thirties widely on the latest GFS 12z.?

image.thumb.png.d88d2569eb5f913bac00b5cdee738ac0.pngimage.thumb.png.8b76e059897e38b446bdb7825343f3c4.pngimage.thumb.png.30f41cfe5b96195e965b992c647ccadb.png

Edited by Iceman2606
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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

ICON and ARPEGE both looking very hot still with ARPEGE in particular going for 34°C in a couple spots.

image.thumb.png.6f39c7f11449b989c7e4d76260e16250.pngimage.thumb.png.e2378eb17d4e2c52fbe591abe6670d23.png

Edited by Iceman2606
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Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

12z GFS op joining the 0z ECM op with a weekend breakdown that’s packing a proper punch in terms of precipitation. Deliberate alliteration of the letter P for obvious reasons. Saturday evening into Sunday, 6 hour totals at 108, 114 and 120 hours.

8B530930-D2E5-4FB4-BDFF-09D38CF22C86.thumb.png.08d32328025c6ea7ddee9cab056cfb98.png F48849E0-6DE2-48A1-9590-DEA1A536A220.thumb.png.9a844a9a3143ec0e7431c1de5516478e.png 32AF7ED0-5F33-4020-A218-7BF6187675AD.thumb.png.be62865c4d46d3b2802d57adba52800f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

GEM going for a high of 34c

image.thumb.png.9ab348da0de4614e4104c6687208e359.png
 

32c on Saturday as the boundary is far enough north to deliver sunshine and light winds to southern England for most of the day.

image.thumb.png.ab60139a4eb73808daa943e878ea161d.png
 

Probably the best operational solution for Saturday. The Arpege is tough to look at in a way with low 40s almost to the French coast, but struggling to reach the 20s on the other side of the channel.

image.thumb.png.afc5f95c48b717475cad6dc074fe1375.png
 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
17 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

12z GFS op joining the 0z ECM op with a weekend breakdown that’s packing a proper punch in terms of precipitation. Deliberate alliteration of the letter P for obvious reasons. Saturday evening into Sunday, 6 hour totals at 108, 114 and 120 hours.

8B530930-D2E5-4FB4-BDFF-09D38CF22C86.thumb.png.08d32328025c6ea7ddee9cab056cfb98.png F48849E0-6DE2-48A1-9590-DEA1A536A220.thumb.png.9a844a9a3143ec0e7431c1de5516478e.png 32AF7ED0-5F33-4020-A218-7BF6187675AD.thumb.png.be62865c4d46d3b2802d57adba52800f.png

I’m wondering if there’s the potential for embedded lightning

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

Saturday is certainly fascinating temperature wise,   it does seem strange you can go from 32C to 12, 13C in such a short time , like car gears going from Gear 5 to Gear 2 in one go , I would have thought there would be more of a gradual reduction in the temperatures. 

I wonder if the models are over-doing the heat and the subsequent cool down , seems far more feasible to go from 29C to 18C
than 31C to 11C  in some parts.

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33 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

GEM going for a high of 34c

image.thumb.png.9ab348da0de4614e4104c6687208e359.png
 

32c on Saturday as the boundary is far enough north to deliver sunshine and light winds to southern England for most of the day.

image.thumb.png.ab60139a4eb73808daa943e878ea161d.png
 

Probably the best operational solution for Saturday. The Arpege is tough to look at in a way with low 40s almost to the French coast, but struggling to reach the 20s on the other side of the channel.

image.thumb.png.afc5f95c48b717475cad6dc074fe1375.png
 

Arpege produces a lot of drizzly clag on Saturday, if that wasn’t there it would be well over 30C as the actual frontal boundary is quite far north.

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
22 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

GEM going for a high of 34c

image.thumb.png.9ab348da0de4614e4104c6687208e359.png
 

32c on Saturday as the boundary is far enough north to deliver sunshine and light winds to southern England for most of the day.

image.thumb.png.ab60139a4eb73808daa943e878ea161d.png
 

Probably the best operational solution for Saturday. The Arpege is tough to look at in a way with low 40s almost to the French coast, but struggling to reach the 20s on the other side of the channel.

image.thumb.png.afc5f95c48b717475cad6dc074fe1375.png
 

Incredible heat in Feance being shown by the Arpege. Would that level of heat generate a heat low which is kind of shown on the gfs 12z moving ne i think ( may be wrong)

Screenshot_20220614-182553_Chrome.thumb.jpg.25cf34e30af5a8bde921111e29f1177f.jpg

Potential for severe thunderstorms surely if conditions are right as Cape bound to be high... .but they may stay in France though with just heavy rain for us as front moves down...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
17 minutes ago, minus10 said:

 

Screenshot_20220614-182553_Chrome.thumb.jpg.25cf34e30af5a8bde921111e29f1177f.jpg

Potential for severe thunderstorms surely if conditions are right as Cape bound to be high... .but they may stay in France though with just heavy rain for us as front moves down...

 

Yes if that was west to east not north to south would be explosive.

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing
  • Location: Worthing

Ukv still has 34/35 Friday for midlands, 33 on Saturday in south east, ukm looks to keep the heat in the south east on sat, looking at the ecm rolling out it looks like south east get another hot day on Saturday, also worth noting ukv shows min on Friday night of 24 in London, GEM shows min of 26 surely that would be record night temps for June if it came off 

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
3 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Ukv still has 34/35 Friday for midlands, 33 on Saturday in south east, ukm looks to keep the heat in the south east on sat, looking at the ecm rolling out it looks like south east get another hot day on Saturday, also worth noting ukv shows min on Friday night of 24 in London, GEM shows min of 26 surely that would be record night temps for June if it came off 

Those would be record all time U.K. minima, not just June.

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Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

Anyone up for P02 on the GFS 12z. Keeps the 20C isotherm over parts and at times most of England and Wales right up to Sunday

image.thumb.png.7d9835e7f3dea998ca476ac4d0a9ebc4.pngimage.thumb.png.4d725072da9b2a6b9129456a620bfddd.pngimage.thumb.png.ed9da91c79e5a7b5aebbfb661dfb5363.png

image.thumb.png.165f8b161bbf584a862d4bcfb745bb34.pngimage.thumb.png.93693997e2240f49c8253736f0e97422.pngimage.thumb.png.32f240dbf536061e5f80ec9750ca44ce.png

image.thumb.png.549a62d006730902796722cfc96a6624.png

Then look at how such a big upper temp contrast sets in for Monday next week on the same P02

image.thumb.png.a126a5cdb5e11415f9d48eff9fab8768.png

The UK in general here struggling under uppers from 0 to 8C whilst just over the channel 20 to 28C uppers. Now if a temp contrast like this doesn't set off thunderstorms for the south of the UK then there must be something wrong.

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GEM, GFS & Arpege are all similar and develop some claginess and drizzle early on during Saturday, if this is avoided it'll be extremely hot as temps will be starting from a higher baseline in the south. GFS and GEM keep 15C uppers to at least 00Z Sunday now. I have a sneaky feeling Saturday will be warmer for a larger area than currently modelled.

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UKV has a frankly astonishing temperature contrast for many parts of S & E Yorkshire from Friday 3pm to Saturday 3pm. 31C to 12C... just wow! 

image.thumb.png.eb2158c0bb7a71155974c2f52ec90873.png image.thumb.png.7f793151e4befb9bc9ebe7536fafa12a.png

Edited by Steel City Skies
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

Moving forward, the ECM attempts the cut off low solution after this coming weekend.

image.thumb.gif.2a90dd18c73584c927faee982ca9701e.gif
Becoming increasingly warm and humid as the low fills. Plenty of showers spinning around probably. If this verified then you could easily begin to pull very warm/hot air in from the south if the low drifts a little further west.

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