Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Both ICON & GFS 18z have both slowed the clearance of the heat on Saturday compared to their 12z counterparts. GFS in particular is quite an improvement, with the 24C isotherm close to the S coast at 2000 on Saturday!

Astonishing setup. Especially given that we haven’t even seen the summer solstice yet either. Not so sure the 20c isotherm has ever made it this side of the solstice to our shores either!? Never mind 24c

[Eskimo]

7 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

I think the models are over and under doing it wildly.  I don't see how Wales can be 12C and over the Channel 44, 45C .  

Easy. France still in the hottest 850s with clear skies, Wales sitting under thick cloud and rain in much cooler 850s.  I do, however, think 45C is overkill but completely believe 12C for Wales. 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Eskimo

[Lukesluckybunch]

The control going for it a bit more in Saturday with the heat,temperatures in the mid to high twenties,far North as midlands

[MattStoke]

Much stronger push of hot air on the Arpege. Shame it only runs out to 60+ hours on the 18z (Friday morning).

[Man With Beard]

Looking through ECM ensembles - the op is around about the middle ground for Saturday, some runs hotter, some MUCH cooler. But little chance of the heat sticking north of Birmingham.

Being realistic the heat could all shift into France, but interesting to watch!

[Captain Shortwave]

Fair to say that the 18z ensembles are worth an eyebrow raise. A sizeable number keep the southern half of the U.K. hot on Saturday.

Almost worthless but the mean places the heat a fair way into the U.K. (16c isotherm from the Bristol Channel to the Wash). 

[Justin1705]

Thunderstorms this weekend. Saturday night looks good, plume ? Hope so cos I'm sweating already :(

[MattStoke]

I spy a number 35. 20’C isotherm as far north as the Wash on the Arpege this morning.

[Captain Shortwave]

This weekend aside - The UKMO follows from yesterdays ECM with creating another cut off low to our south west.

Still close enough for some rain at this point though it does seems to be clearing slowly southwards by day 6. The GFS isn’t interested at the same time.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[MattStoke]

UKMO this morning keeping the heat across the South East into early Sunday.

[Weather-history]

This was one of the GFS 18z ensembles for Saturday 18z

[clark3r]

Ukm has 22 uppers brushing the south east coast on Saturday, be interesting to see cloud amounts etc because Saturday has the potential to be very hot here, gfs has 30 in south east on Saturday add on normal 2 degrees would be 32, arpege gem, icon back away from being hot on Saturday but warm very warm, let’s see what ecm and ukv say 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, clark3r said:

Ukm has 22 uppers brushing the south east coast on Saturday, be interesting to see cloud amounts etc because Saturday has the potential to be very hot here, gfs has 30 in south east on Saturday add on normal 2 degrees would be 32, arpege gem, icon back away from being hot on Saturday but warm very warm, let’s see what ecm and ukv say 

Yeah it’s a shame, lots of a messiness on Saturday, the models still picking up lots of clag. Anything possible and still think the frontal boundary will be further north with more chance of us getting into the hot air. 

[Sunny76]

12 hours ago, StormChaseUK said:

Saturday is certainly fascinating temperature wise,   it does seem strange you can go from 32C to 12, 13C in such a short time , like car gears going from Gear 5 to Gear 2 in one go , I would have thought there would be more of a gradual reduction in the temperatures. 

I wonder if the models are over-doing the heat and the subsequent cool down , seems far more feasible to go from 29C to 18C
than 31C to 11C  in some parts.

Could be a recipe for some violent thunderstorms during the transition to cooler temps.

Maybe a daytime/early evening storm is on the cards for Saturday. 

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO develops rain over Southern England on Saturday morning which clears northwards during the afternoon. Broken cloud across these areas by the evening but of course it restricts the temperatures to the mid/high twenties in the far south and around normal under the rainband. Still a long way to go and even this rain band could be a lot more fragmented (More sunshine) in reality.

The GEFs tend to keep every weekend solution in the mix, including hot conditions for a wider area than any operational has produced.

Edited June 15, 2022 by Captain Shortwave

[KTtom]

8 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

UKMO develops rain over Southern England on Saturday morning which clears northwards during the afternoon. Broken cloud across these areas by the evening but of course it restricts the temperatures to the mid/high twenties in the far south and around normal under the rainband. Still a long way to go and even this rain band could be a lot more fragmented (More sunshine) in reality.

Be interesting to see where ECM sits in relation to Saturday in a few minutes, quite an astonishing difference between UKMO and GFS at just day 3, varying between torrential rain and dry!

Noticed this morning top temp for my location on Friday has changed from a slightly underwhelming 24 c prediction over the last few days to a very underwhelming 21 c. Could be the biggest non event since 'winter' . 

[MattStoke]

A lot of 35’C’s on the latest UKV. Has the heat a bit more restricted to central and eastern areas of England though   Seems odd as it has clear skies, light winds and high 850hpa temperatures further west.

 

Edited June 15, 2022 by MattStoke

[clark3r]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Yeah it’s a shame, lots of a messiness on Saturday, the models still picking up lots of clag. Anything possible and still think the frontal boundary will be further north with more chance of us getting into the hot air. 

I have to agree with you, let’s hope for upgrades later today it tomorrow 

[mb018538]

The UKV run this morning has 850 temps of 25c in the SE corner late Saturday afternoon Max temps only mid to high 20s though. Not sure I’ve seen 25c here before…..at the same time you have 850s of 0/-1c in Scotland. Has to be the biggest contrast ever seen in the UK for me.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The UKV run this morning has 850 temps of 25c in the SE corner late Saturday afternoon Max temps only mid to high 20s though. Not sure I’ve seen 25c here before…..at the same time you have 850s of 0/-1c in Scotland. Has to be the biggest contrast ever seen in the UK for me.

Assume UKV also developS the cloud and clag early doors? 

[Paul]

On 15/06/2022 at 07:47, Alderc said:

Assume UKV also developS the cloud and clag early doors? 

Some, you can see the cloudcover forecast on the viewer:

UKV Model Viewer | Netweather.tv

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

[Mike Poole]

I’m finding this upcoming spell absolutely fascinating.  I’ve rather given up posting charts from one model or another in the last couple of days because the uncertainty doesn’t seem to be reducing over many aspects of this.  How hot?  How far north?  How much rain and where?  Opportunities for thunder?  It does seem to be extraordinarily hot over the continent for June, and I’ve no doubt that the much above average SSTs around the UK and western Europe are part of the reason for the modelled heat into the UK at the end of the week.  

I’m interested in the idea that the heat continues in some form after the weekend, which is one to watch once the initial plume is over.  

[minus10]

BBC developing that low for Saturday night/Sunday

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

The UKV run this morning has 850 temps of 25c in the SE corner late Saturday afternoon Max temps only mid to high 20s though. Not sure I’ve seen 25c here before…..at the same time you have 850s of 0/-1c in Scotland. Has to be the biggest contrast ever seen in the UK for me.

It really is quite incredible, especially with our maritime climate to have such a massive range within a relatively small area.

[Singularity]

For the southern 3rd of the UK, the UKV 03z has the warmest, driest outcome for Father’s Day that I’ve seen so far outside of the ensemble runs, reaching the low to mid 20s. On the other hand, it’s among the coolest and cloudiest futures north with low-mid teens maximums.

ECM has things further south and GFS a little further still, so fortunes are almost reversed (it’s just not as warm in the north as it is in the south in the UKV scenario).

Clearly we can’t all ‘win’ on either day this weekend… and road trips are more expensive than ever! Just have to cross your fingers and hope for some luck.

Beyond the weekend, really interesting how often we’re seeing runs that find a way to extend high pressure right across the UK from the west via ‘propping it up’ using  a low over Western Europe. It’s pretty much the only way to achieve a particularly warm setup during a low AAM phase. The positive AO and NAO is a crucial player - some GFS runs have shown us what usually happens otherwise.