July 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[February1978]

18.1c and 49mm please, warm and settled

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for July 2022

Number in italics after forecaster name is order of entry. You can continue to enter the contest with late penalties assessed to the end of Sunday, 3rd of July. If the normal CET values look unfamiliar, they are v2.0 averages, both mentioned are 0.1 higher in the CET legacy data set (16.9, 16.7).

 

CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER _____________________ CET _ EWP __ FORECASTER 

 

20.0 _ 44.0 __ Shillitocettwo ( 1 ) ________________17.4 _ 45.0 __ Freeze ( 18 )

19.9 _ 20.0 __ Earthshine ( 3 ) ___________________17.4 _ --- ---__ Summer Sun ( 10 )

19.1 _ 65.0 __ Stationary Front ( 17 ) ____________17.4 _ 40.0 __ The PIT ( 14 )

18.9 _ 35.0 __ Godber 1 ( 35 ) ___________________ 17.4 _ --- ---__ damianslaw ( 30 ) 

18.8 _ 29.0 __ daniel* (  L3 - 1 ) _________________

18.4 _ 47.7 __ Roger J Smith ( 39 ) _______________17.4 _ --- --- __ Mark Bayley ( 45 )

18.3 _ 39.0 __ Emmett Garland ( 15 ) ____________17.3 _100.0__ Weather26 ( 9 )

18.2 _ --- ---__ richie3846 ( 5 ) ___________________ 17.3 _ --- ---__ Walsall Wood Snow ( 37 )

18.2 _ 42.0 __ rwtwm ( 13 ) ______________________17.2 _ 56.0 __ SteveB ( 26 )

18.1 _ 43.0 __ Reef ( 28 ) _________________________17.2 _ 45.0 __ Mulzy ( 40 )

18.1 _ 49.0 __ February1978 ( 46 ) _______________ 17.1 _ 52.5 __ snowray ( 24 )

18.1 _ 80.0 __ Norrance ( L 2-1 ) _________________17.1 _ 42.0 __ jonboy ( 34 )

18.0 _ 55.0 __ Polar Gael ( 4 ) ____________________17.1 _ 75.0 __ J 10 ( 43 ) 

18.0 _ 55.0 __ seaside60 ( 36 ) ___________________17.1 _ 69.0 __ davehsug ( L1-1 )

18.0 _ 54.0 __ stewfox ( L 2-3 ) ___________________17.0 _ 44.0 __ NeilN ( 6 )

17.9 _ 75.0 __ EdStone ( 11 ) _____________________17.0 _ 80.0 __ East Lancs Rain ( 8 )

17.9 _ 72.0 __ summer18 ( 30 ) __________________ 17.0 _ 60.0 __ Frigid ( 22 )

17.8 _ 45.0 __ Midlands Ice Age ( 31 ) ____________17.0 _ --- ---__ Duncan McAlister ( L 2-2 )

17.8 _ 51.0 __ Feb1991Blizzard (41,13.5) _________16.8 _ 79.0 __ I Rem Atl 252 ( 27 )

17.7 _ 54.5 __ Bobd29 ( 2 ) _______________________16.8 _ 72.0 __ average for 1991-2020 (1992-2021 16.8_72.7)

17.7 _ 47.0 __ Wold Topper ( 16 ) ________________ 16.6 _ 73.0 __ noname_weather ( 44 )

17.6 _ 60.0 __ dancerwithwings ( 19 ) ____________ 16.6 _ 67.3 __ average for 1981-2010

17.6 _ 57.0 __ Mr Maunder ( 32 ) _________________16.5 _ 58.0 __ virtualsphere ( 12 )

17.5 _ 60.0 __ DR(S)NO ( 7 ) ______________________ 16.4 _ 55.0 __ weather-history ( 20 )

17.5 _ 45.0 __ DiagonalRedLine ( 33 ) ____________ 16.4 _ 60.0 __ summer blizzard ( 21 )

17.5 _ 62.0 __ Don ( 42 ) _________________________ 16.2 _ --- ---__ Kentish Man ( 38 ) 

__________________________________________________ 16.1 _ 59.7 __ Jeff C ( 23 )

17.5_ 55.0 __ consensus _________________________ 15.0 _ 60.0 __ syed2878 ( 25 )

_ consensus of 46 on time forecasts, one late 1d, 3 at 2d late, 1 at 3d (51 total) is

_ 17.5 C 

______________________________

EWP forecasts in order

100_wx26 .. 80_ELR, Norr^^ ... 79_IRem ... 75_EdS, J10 ... 73_non ...

 72_sum18 ... 72.0_91-20 ... 69_dave^ ...  67.3_81-10 ... 65_SF ... 62_Don ...

 60_DR(S), dww, sb, Frig, syed ... 59.7_Jef ... 58_virt ... 57_MrM ... 56_Ste ...

 55_PG, wx-his, sea ... 54.5_bobd ... 54_stew^^ .. 52.5_snow ... 51_Feb91 ...

 49_Feb78 ...  47.7_RJS .. 47_WT ... 45_fre, MIA, DRL, mul ... 44_shil, NN ...

 43_Reef ... 42_rwtwm, jon ... 40_PIT ... 39_EG ... 35_Godb ... 29_dan*^^^ 20_Earth

_ consensus of 40 on-time entries and one late ( ^ ), also two two days late ( ^^ ) and

_ one at three days late ( ^^^ ) _ 44 total _ is still 55.0 mm _ later entries to be added

 

 

Edited July 16, 2022 by Roger J Smith
formatting (no other edits made)

[davehsug]

Oh dear, another fine! Sorry I'm late again.

17.1C & 69mm please.

[Roger J Smith]

July CET 1981-2010 averages, and extremes 1772-2020 with running CET extremes

date _ CET _ (cum) ____ Max, Min 1772-2020 ________ Running CET extremes 1772-2020

01 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773) _____ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773)

02 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.3 (1821) _____ 22.9 (1976) __ 11.0 (1907)

03 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (1976) __ 10.1 (1907) _____ 23.4 (1976) __ 10.7 (1907)

04 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 ___ 24.7 (1976) __ 10.0 (1965) _____ 23.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907)

05 __ 16.4 __ 16.0 ___ 24.0 (1852) __ 10.7 (1920) _____ 23.8 (1976) __ 11.2 (1907)

06 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 ___ 23.3 (1976) __ 11.3 (1877) _____ 23.7 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907) 

07 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 __ 22.6 (1923,1976) _ 11.1 (1877) ___23.5 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

08 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 __ 21.4 (1870,1976) _ 10.6 (1823) ___23.3 (1976) __ 11.5 (1907)

09 __ 16.3 __ 16.2 ___ 21.6 (1921) __ 11.0 (1856) _____ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

10 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 ___ 22.1 (1921) __ 11.2 (1993) _____ 22.3 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

11 __ 16.7 __ 16.3 ___ 22.6 (1783) ___ 9.4 (1888) _____ 22.0 (1976) __ 11.6 (1907)

12 __ 16.5 __ 16.3 ___ 23.7 (1923) __ 11.0 (1840) _____ 21.9 (1976) __ 11.7 (1907)

13 __ 16.6 __ 16.3 ___ 24.5 (1808) __ 10.2 (1840) _____ 21.6 (1976) __ 11.8 (1907)

14 __ 16.8 __ 16.3 ___ 24.4 (1808) __ 11.7 (1961) _____ 21.4 (1976) __ 12.2 (1907)

15 __ 17.0 __ 16.4 ___ 23.7 (1825) __ 11.5 (1883) _____ 21.2 (1976) __ 12.4 (1879)

16 __ 16.8 __ 16.4 ___ 22.7 (2003) __ 11.5 (1823) _____ 21.0 (1976) __ 12.5 (1879)

17 __ 16.3 __ 16.4 ___ 22.3 (1834) __ 11.0 (1892) _____ 20.7 (1976) __ 12.6 (1879)

18 __ 16.5 __ 16.4 ___ 23.3 (1825) __ 10.1 (1863) _____ 20.6 (1976) __ 12.8 (1879)

19 __ 16.9 __ 16.4 ___ 24.5 (2006) __ 10.6 (1892) _____ 20.5 (1976) __ 12.9 (1879)

20 __ 17.2 __ 16.5 ___ 23.5 (2016) ___ 8.7 (1836) _____ 20.3 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

21 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.1 (1868) __ 11.3 (1902) _____ 20.0 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

22 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.2 (1868) __ 11.5 (1902) _____ 19.8 (1976) __ 13.0 (1879)

23 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 22.5 (2019) __ 10.1 (1843) _____ 19.6 (1976) __ 13.1 (1879)

24 __ 16.6 __ 16.5 ___ 23.9 (1818) __ 11.1 (1843) _____ 19.5 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

25 __ 17.0 __ 16.6 ___ 25.2 (2019) __ 10.9 (1920) _____ 19.6 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

26 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 23.2 (2006) __ 11.0 (1884) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

27 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 22.5 (2018) __ 10.6 (1867) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.1 (1879)

28 __ 17.4 __ 16.6 ___ 23.7 (1948) __ 11.8 (1886,1891) _19.8 (2006)__13.2 (1879)

29 __ 17.7 __ 16.7 ___ 25.2 (1948) __ 11.0 (1816) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1879)

30 __ 17.4 __ 16.7 ___ 23.1 (1948) __ 10.6 (1786) _____ 19.8 (2006) __ 13.4 (1816)

31 __ 17.2 __ 16.7 ___ 23.7 (2020) __ 10.9 (1841) _____19.7 (2006)*__ 13.4 (1816)

______________________________________________

All values in this table are from legacy CET, have not had time to update them to v2.0 ... but end of July 2006 is 19.8 in v2.0, so most of the other values above it could be 0.1 higher as well. Values from 1976 are generally 0.1 lower now than in legacy. The new records can be found in the thread about the change from legacy to v2.0, which is now around page 3 of the thread menu. Most of the records are fairly similar and only a few have changed years. The absolute high now is 25.3 from 2019 and the reading in 1948 is now 25.1. 

1981-2010 CET mean is now 16.6 (v2.0) rather than 16.7 (CET legacy) so I would imagine many of the running CET values quoted are now 0.1 lower as well. 

1991-2020 averages are slightly higher, the mean is now 16.8 (it was 16.9 in legacy). 

Last year's warmest day (in CET legacy) was 22.2 on 22nd. Not quite a daily record. ...

[Norrance]

Missed last month having been away on hols and catching Covid and now well late this time. Anyway here goes . 18.1C and 80mms please.

[Duncan McAlister]

17.0 for me please (if not too late!)

[stewfox]

18c 54mm probably too late

[Roger J Smith]

Not too late, entries can be submitted to end of Sunday 3rd. 

[Daniel*]

23 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Not too late, entries can be submitted to end of Sunday 3rd. 

Oh shoot.. thought I was too late again.

18.8C and 29mm thanks 

[Roger J Smith]

With no updates on CET, I had a look at max and min for the three locations (have to estimate Stonyhurst but the other two are available on meteociel) and this is where we are, approximately, through today ... 

Location _____ Max, Min, Mean 1st ____ 2nd _____ 3rd _____ CET to date

Pershore _____20.8, 8.1, 14.5 ____19.1,11.7,15.4 ___20.8, 7.4,14.1 ___ 

Rothamsted __18.4, 8.3, 13.4 ____20.5, 9.9, 15.2 ___ 20.7, 9.4,15.1 ___ 

Stonyhurst ___17.0,10.0,13.5 ____19.0,12.0,15.5 ___18.0, 9.5,14.8 ___ 

 _ average ____18.7, 8.8,13.8 ____19.5,11.1,15.3 ___ 19.8, 9.4,14.6 ___ 

running CET __ 18.7, 8.8, 13.8 __ 19.1,10.0,14.6 ___ 19.3, 9.8,14.6

(I did not apply any 0.2 adjustment for u.h.i. so if you include that, 14.4 to 3rd)

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Way too late, been rather pre-occupied with visiting friends within in my close friendship circle and them having the big C.  One lost, another imminently (that’s 7 in last 12 months).

Looks a potentially hot and dry month, certainly the 1st half, and with this kind of set up it could perpetuate .

Good luck, catch you all after summer.
 

BFTP

Edited July 4, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

14.5c to the 3rd

1.5c below the 61 to 90 average
1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited July 4, 2022 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

No updates from Hadley again

Edited July 5, 2022 by Summer Sun

[Roger J Smith]

Estimate the 4th at around 15.0 (from 19.5, 10.5) so the running CET would be around 14.6.

The 5th may be around 14.5 also, a warmer max (20.5) but the min will be quite low as Pershore shows a minimum of 5.7 earlier today (Tuesday 5th).

So if there's no update tomorrow figure on the average being around 14.6. 

These are rough estimates as I mentioned two of the three locations used are available but not the cooler northern one (Stonyhurst). I have to estimate that from various stations at a distance in somewhat different climate zones. 

[Summer Sun]

14.6c to the 5th

1.4c below the 61 to 90 average
1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

14.6c to the 5th

1.4c below the 61 to 90 average
1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

Better late than never!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 14.9C -0.1C below normal. Rainfall 0.1mm  0.2% of the monthly total.

[Don]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

14.6c to the 5th

1.4c below the 61 to 90 average
1.4c below the 81 to 10 average

Wonder where the CET will be two weeks from now?!  

[damianslaw]

All this talk of record heat, and it is turning into a cold start relatively speaking to July...

[Don]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

All this talk of record heat, and it is turning into a cold start relatively speaking to July...

Indeed, but I have a feeling the cold start won't be remembered for too long!

[Summer Sun]

14.9c to the 6th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

14.9c to the 6th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

And up we go!

[Don]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

14.9c to the 6th

1.1c below the 61 to 90 average
1.2c below the 81 to 10 average

Interestingly, the Netweather temperature tracker is currently at 15.77C and Hadley 14.9C which are the same CET figures they had for June overall.

[Weather26]

Now watch the heatwave end up being shortened some point next week and we're back to square one.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15C Bang on average. Rainfall 0.1mm 0.2% of the monthly rainfall.