July 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

Only way is up now, watch the CET shoot upwards over the next 10 days, could quite easily be in the 17s nudging 18s by the 17th should the current outlook verify.

[LetItSnow!]

With a bone dry, hot and sunny outlook, perhaps it could be setting up July 2022 to be one of those classic summer months. You only have to go back to July 2018 for our last one.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 15.5C +0.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

EWP to date is only 4.4 mm and nothing much is indicated in the next ten or even sixteen days on the GFS, so we could be approaching record dry pace after mid-month. Some rain comes through northern parts of Ireland and southern Scotland on Tuesday and again at times in the 11-16 day time period but most of it avoids the EWP grid except for 1-2 mm for the grid from 10 mm in Cumbria and northwest Wales. 

It looks more like a very warm spell than a heat wave as such, but could easily see the CET moving up quite steadily to reach 18 C. 

Had a look at my files to see what was the highest outcome for any July that was 15 or lower on the 6th (as posted), bearing in mind the data file is legacy CET but that wouldn't make more than 0.2 difference to this discussion. 

The highest CET values end of month from a start 15.0 or lower on 6th are these: 

YEAR ____ CET 6th __ CET 31st

1921 _____ 15.0 _____ 18.5

1900 _____ 14.6 _____ 17.7

1955 _____ 14.2 _____ 17.7

1797 _____ 14.2 _____ 17.3

1899 _____ 15.0 _____ 17.3

1807 _____ 15.0 _____ 17.1

1904 _____ 14.9 _____ 17.1

1947 _____ 14.9 _____ 17.0

1984 _____ 14.9 _____ 16.9

1990 _____ 13.1 _____ 16.9

2016 _____ 14.4 _____ 16.9

1997 _____ 13.8 _____ 16.7

1967 _____ 14.8 _____ 16.7

1857 _____ 14.4 _____ 16.4

 

(1825 _____15.2 _____ 17.2) same general idea as above but was 14.5 to 9th before warming up.

 

Perhaps more similar but from mid 15s...

(2019 ____ 15.4 _____ 17.5)

(2003 ____ 15.6 _____ 17.6)

(1911 ____ 15.5 _____ 18.2)

(2013 ____ 15.4 _____ 18.3) 

(1808 ____ 15.3 _____ 18.4)

(1995 ____ 15.6 _____ 18.6)

So there are quite a few analogues for this sort of start to a warm July and daily records were set in quite a few of them. 

On the other hand the other well known warm months of July had warm starts too. 

[Summer Sun]

15.3c to the 7th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP to date is only 4.4 mm and nothing much is indicated in the next ten or even sixteen days on the GFS, so we could be approaching record dry pace after mid-month. Some rain comes through northern parts of Ireland and southern Scotland on Tuesday and again at times in the 11-16 day time period but most of it avoids the EWP grid except for 1-2 mm for the grid from 10 mm in Cumbria and northwest Wales. 

It looks more like a very warm spell than a heat wave as such, but could easily see the CET moving up quite steadily to reach 18 C. 

Had a look at my files to see what was the highest outcome for any July that was 15 or lower on the 6th (as posted), bearing in mind the data file is legacy CET but that wouldn't make more than 0.2 difference to this discussion. 

The highest CET values end of month from a start 15.0 or lower on 6th are these: 

YEAR ____ CET 6th __ CET 31st

1921 _____ 15.0 _____ 18.5

1900 _____ 14.6 _____ 17.7

1955 _____ 14.2 _____ 17.7

1797 _____ 14.2 _____ 17.3

1899 _____ 15.0 _____ 17.3

1807 _____ 15.0 _____ 17.1

1904 _____ 14.9 _____ 17.1

1947 _____ 14.9 _____ 17.0

1984 _____ 14.9 _____ 16.9

1990 _____ 13.1 _____ 16.9

2016 _____ 14.4 _____ 16.9

1997 _____ 13.8 _____ 16.7

1967 _____ 14.8 _____ 16.7

1857 _____ 14.4 _____ 16.4

 

(1825 _____15.2 _____ 17.2) same general idea as above but was 14.5 to 9th before warming up.

 

Perhaps more similar but from mid 15s...

(2019 ____ 15.4 _____ 17.5)

(2003 ____ 15.6 _____ 17.6)

(1911 ____ 15.5 _____ 18.2)

(2013 ____ 15.4 _____ 18.3) 

(1808 ____ 15.3 _____ 18.4)

(1995 ____ 15.6 _____ 18.6)

So there are quite a few analogues for this sort of start to a warm July and daily records were set in quite a few of them. 

On the other hand the other well known warm months of July had warm starts too. 

July 2013 is a good comparator, took a while to become warm, but then we had a sustained 2 week plus period of very warm weather.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16C +0.8C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

[Earthshine]

CET is going to shoot up if the output is correct.  Perhaps first 18°C+ CET month since 2018.

[Summer Sun]

15.6c to the 8th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.4C +1.1C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

[Summer Sun]

15.9c to the 9th

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average
0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Still just below the 61-90 average, a cool first third to July, the second third looks very warm indeed, could be a sandwich month, cool first third, very warm second third, last third... who knows. 

[Roger J Smith]

That last third would probably involve at least a reload of warmer than normal if not another hot spell, so my money's on CET reaching 18 and staying around there to the end. Would need a second major heat spike to rival the top ten. Not likely to stay bone dry looking at the later part of model runs, but 25-50 mm could be the most likely finish for EWP. 

[SunnyPlease]

I am of the opinion that this July will be rather similar to July 2013. It warmed up at around the same time and there's a very decent chance it will stay settled and warm for quite some time, with reloads having a good (hopefully) probability. I'm getting serious 2013 vibes off this month, with maybe a higher maximum than that month next week.

About 18.2c would be my guess.

[Shillitocettwo]

I think August will see this heatwave continue and the first Level 4 heatwave alert, with rules demanding non essential businesses limit work to early morning. With a CET of 21.C possibly.

     Check out the current Mediterranran sea temp anomalies too......these will come back to bite with a very unusual November heatwave with 25.C exceeded and an insane CET of 11.7.C seeing a monthly record. But a massive drop to 3.1.C in December and disruptive Christmas snowfall!

 

   Anyway how high can this heatwave push the July CET? I fear the pathetic start has scuppered 20.C but you never know.....

[Summer Sun]

16.2c to the 10th

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average
bang on the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16.9C 1.6C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Amazed at how cool the CET zone is.

[Earthshine]

Not often that June records the coldest temperatures of the year...

[Shillitocettwo]

1 minute ago, Earthshine said:

Not often that June records the coldest temperatures of the year...

  Even manages to break the known laws of Physics with a significantly below absolute zero return....

[The PIT]

6 hours ago, Shillitocettwo said:

  Even manages to break the known laws of Physics with a significantly below absolute zero return....

Damn I'll have to rewrite them again.

Right Sunny Sheffield up to 17.3C +1.9C above normal. Rainfall unchanged.

 

[Summer Sun]

16.6c to the 11th

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

8 hours ago, Earthshine said:

Not often that June records the coldest temperatures of the year...

I knew global warming was a load of old piffle!! 

[Earthshine]

Maximum CET so far has been impressive.  To think that July will probably have a significant positive anomaly too.  Long way to go yet but with mild temperatures more often than not I wouldn't be surprised to see 2022 with the highest maximum CET anomaly.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Maximum CET so far has been impressive.  To think that July will probably have a significant positive anomaly too.  Long way to go yet but with mild temperatures more often than not I wouldn't be surprised to see 2022 with the highest maximum CET anomaly.

Probably on course to be a record warm year overall!

[damianslaw]

Just now, Don said:

Probably on course to be a record warm year overall!

Sadly another very warm year quite probable, but you never know may see a switch in August..