July 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

17.3c to the 17th

1.3c above the 61 to 90 average
0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

This will rocket in coming two days, could easily be in the low 18s by Thursday, extraordinary, to think we could see a climb of about 0.8 degrees in two days. Quite exceptional.

I'm trying to think of a winter comparison.. perhaps Jan 87 when we saw record cold maxima...when we had the perfect synoptics at the peak time of year for maximum cold. 

Edited July 18, 2022 by Damslawdamslaw

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 18.4C +2.4C above normal. Rainfall unchanged

[Summer Sun]

17.7c to the 18th

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average
1.3c above the 81 to 10 average

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

The link below shows the hottest day of each year in the UK since 1900.

https://www.trevorharley.com/hottest-day-of-each-year-from-1900.html

Since 1900, there have been only 17 years the temperature has topped 35C.

Between 1901-1933 4 years reached 35C

Between 1934-1966, only 2 years reached 35C

Between 1967-1989, it only reached 35C once, in 1976.

Between 1990 to today, 10 years reached 35C, including 6 of the last 8 years.

[Roger J Smith]

Updating the record tracker and we had a new all-time max of 34.8 on Monday (sure to be gone when today is posted) ...

 

DATE _____ MEAN _ YEAR ___ MAX _ YEAR ___ high MIN _ YEAR

16 07 _____ 22.5 _ 2003 ______ 29.2 _ 1983 ___ 16.6 _ 2003

obs 2022 _ 17.3 _____________ 25.0 ____________ 9.6 _____ no records Saturday

17 07 _____ 22.3 _ 1834 ______ 29.7 _ 2006 ___ 16.0 _ 2003

obs 2022 _ 21.9 _____________ 30.0 ___________ 13.7 _____ record max Sunday

18 07 _____ 23.3 _ 1825 ______ 30.9 _ 2006 ___ 16.3 _ 1878

obs 2022 _ 24.4 _____________ 34.8 ___________ 13.9 _____ record mean, max Monday

19 07 _____ 24.6 _ 2006 ______ 33.0 _ 2006 ___ 17.4 _ 1995

20 07 _____ 23.6 _ 2016 ______ 29.4 _ 1901 ___ 19.5 _ 2016

 

all time __ 25.3 _ 2019 (25) __34.2 _ 2019 (25) _19.5 _ 2016 (20)

obs 2022 _ 24.4 ____________ 34.8

 

The new top forty CET maxima (v2.0)

 1. 34.8 __ 18 July 2022 

 2. 34.2 __ 25 July 2019

 3. 33.4 ___ 3 Aug 1990

 4. 33.2 __ 31 July 2020

 5. 33.1 ___ 3 July 1976

 6. 33.0 __ 19 July 2006

t7 32.8 ___ 2 Aug 1990

t7 32.8 ___ 9 Aug 2003

t7 32.8 ___ 1 July 2015

10. 32.0 __ 12 Aug 2020

t11 31.9 ___ 4 Aug 1975

t11 31.9 ___ 1 Aug 1995

13. 31.7 ___ 2 July 1976

14. 31.6 ___ 6 July 1976

t15 31.5 __ 29 July 1948

t15 31.5 ___ 2 Aug 1995

t17 31.3 ___ 4 and 5 July 1976

19. 31.2 __ 31 Aug 1906

t20 31.1 ___ 1 Sep 1906

t20 31.1 ___ 7 and 8 Aug 1975

23. 31.0 __ 12 July 1923 

t24 30.9 ___ 9 Aug 1911

t24 30.9 __ 31 July 1943

t24 30.9 __ 13 July 2003

t24 30.9 __ 18 July 2006

t24 30.9 __ 19 July 2016

t29 30.8 __ 28 July 1948

t29 30.8 __ 26 July 2018

31. 30.7 __ 11 Aug 2020

32. 30.6 __ 13 July 1923

t33 30.5 __ 13 Aug 1911

t33 30.5 __ 27 Aug 1930

t33 30.5 __ 30 July 1948

t33 30.5 __ 10 Aug 1997

t37 30.4 1 July 1976, 31 July 1995, 3 Aug 1995 and 29 June 2019)

 

 

 

Edited July 19, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Shillitocettwo]

On 20/06/2022 at 21:27, Shillitocettwo said:

  Am I first?

 

  Starting quite warm and quickly developing into a month with protracted warm or very warm even hot spells, with temperatures in the mid to high 30.Cs and 39.C will be reached at some point in the month. 

    So I'm going to slap a straight CET of 20.0.C on this although I feel this will be the prelude to an August completely off the charts which will go even higher!

   Dryish overall but what rain falls will mostly come from thunderstorms at 44mm.

  I didn't go high enough. 40.C it was! A truly monumental day in British climate history, but at the same time a concerning canary in the coal mine for anthropogenic climate change. It feels a bit like when an athlete smashes the 100m record but you know there's doping involved.....

[Frigid]

Is 19th July the warmest day on average?  Seems like most hot days reside on that day. Examples are 2022, 2021,2016, 2013, 2006

[BruenSryan]

3 hours ago, Frigid said:

Is 19th July the warmest day on average?  Seems like most hot days reside on that day. Examples are 2022, 2021,2016, 2013, 2006

In Ireland, 30C has occurred on 19th July in 2006, 2013, 2016 and 2022 recently.. yet most years we don't see a single 30C. Amusing quirk. It's also known as "Thunderstorm Day" over here for how frequent we can get thundery showers or thunderstorms on it compared to others. At least 2014, 2016, 2017 and 2022 have seen such recently. 

[Summer Sun]

18.2c to the 19th

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[Derecho]

So yesterday's mean of 28.1C was 2.8C above the previous record set in 2019... not bad for a daily record that started in 1772.

[Earthshine]

Interesting the CET maximum of 37.3°C for the 19th exceeds the previous July high temperature in the UK up to 2019.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 19C +3.0C above normal. Rainfall still at 0.1mm 0.2% of the monthly average.

Surprisingly cool in the CET area still.

If we avoid any storms then a excellent chance of the driest July on record which is July 1977 with 12.4mm of rain. To get to the hottest it needs to get to 20.1C to pip 2006. Unless we get another pulse of extreme weather 20C looks like staying the hottest but it should make the top ten and maybe the top five

[emmett garland]

9 hours ago, Frigid said:

Is 19th July the warmest day on average?  Seems like most hot days reside on that day. Examples are 2022, 2021,2016, 2013, 2006

I have a vague recollection of Phlip Eden quoting July 16th as the hottest day of the year on average although this would have been about 20 years ago.

[Earthshine]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield up to 19C +3.0C above normal. Rainfall still at 0.1mm 0.2% of the monthly average.

Surprisingly cool in the CET area still.

If we avoid any storms then a excellent chance of the driest July on record which is July 1977 with 12.4mm of rain. To get to the hottest it needs to get to 20.1C to pip 2006. Unless we get another pulse of extreme weather 20C looks like staying the hottest but it should make the top ten and maybe the top five

We'd need 19.9°C to beat 2006 19.8°C

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, emmett garland said:

I have a vague recollection of Phlip Eden quoting July 16th as the hottest day of the year on average although this would have been about 20 years ago.

I'd expect on average the hottest day of the year occurs some point second half of July. 

Around now makes sense, it's a month after solstice yet SSTs still warming, land has had a good number of weeks to warm up and we still have strong solar input.

There is a lag affect though and I think statistically last week of July warmest on average and in some years first week August.

We are now in peak high summer which tends to last until about 10 August.

Edited July 20, 2022 by Damslawdamslaw

[Roger J Smith]

Updating again the record tracker and we had a new all-time max of 37.3 on Monday, a new all-time daily mean of 28.1 and a date record high minimum 18.9 ... have also edited in values for the 20th which fell short of records. 

 

DATE _____ MEAN _ YEAR ___ MAX _ YEAR ___ high MIN _ YEAR

16 07 _____ 22.5 _ 2003 ______ 29.2 _ 1983 ___ 16.6 _ 2003

obs 2022 _ 17.3 _____________ 25.0 ____________ 9.6 _____ no records Saturday

17 07 _____ 22.3 _ 1834 ______ 29.7 _ 2006 ___ 16.0 _ 2003

obs 2022 _ 21.9 _____________ 30.0 ___________ 13.7 _____ record max Sunday

18 07 _____ 23.3 _ 1825 ______ 30.9 _ 2006 ___ 16.3 _ 1878

obs 2022 _ 24.4 _____________ 34.8 ___________ 13.9 _____ record mean, max Monday

19 07 _____ 24.6 _ 2006 ______ 33.0 _ 2006 ___ 17.4 _ 1995

obs 2022 _ 28.1 _____________ 37.3 ___________ 18.9 ______ all records broken Tuesday

20 07 _____ 23.6 _ 2016 ______ 29.4 _ 1901 ___ 19.5 _ 2016

obs 2022 __19.8 _____________ 22.4 __________ 17.2

 

all time __ 25.3 _ 2019 (25) __34.2 _ 2019 (25) _19.5 _ 2016 (20)

obs 2022 _ 28.1 ____________ 37.3 _____________ 18.9

 

The new top forty CET maxima (v2.0) _ bold were highest to date

 1. 37.3 __ 19 July 2022

 2. 34.8 __ 18 July 2022 

 3. 34.2 __ 25 July 2019

 4. 33.4 ___ 3 Aug 1990

 5. 33.2 __ 31 July 2020

 6. 33.1 ___ 3 July 1976

 7. 33.0 __ 19 July 2006

t8 32.8 ___ 2 Aug 1990

t8 32.8 ___ 9 Aug 2003

t8 32.8 ___ 1 July 2015

11. 32.0 __ 12 Aug 2020

t12 31.9 ___ 4 Aug 1975

t12 31.9 ___ 1 Aug 1995

14. 31.7 ___ 2 July 1976

15. 31.6 ___ 6 July 1976

t16 31.5 __ 29 July 1948

t16 31.5 ___ 2 Aug 1995

t18 31.3 ___ 4 and 5 July 1976

20. 31.2 __ 31 Aug 1906

t21 31.1 ___ 1 Sep 1906

t21 31.1 ___ 7 and 8 Aug 1975

24. 31.0 __ 12 July 1923 

t25 30.9 ___ 9 Aug 1911

t25 30.9 __ 31 July 1943

t25 30.9 __ 13 July 2003

t25 30.9 __ 18 July 2006

t25 30.9 __ 19 July 2016

t30 30.8 __ 28 July 1948

t30 30.8 __ 26 July 2018

32. 30.7 __ 11 Aug 2020

33. 30.6 __ 13 July 1923

t34 30.5 __ 13 Aug 1911

t34 30.5 __ 27 Aug 1930

t34 30.5 __ 30 July 1948

t34 30.5 __ 10 Aug 1997

t38 30.4 1 July 1976, 31 July 1995, 3 Aug 1995 and 29 June 2019

(note before 1906 the highest value was 29.4 on 26 June 1878 tied 19,20 July 1901, although it may have been higher before daily maxima report era)

______________________________________

While there are no maxima for 1772 to 1877, there are probably around 10-15 days that might have made this list from their daily record high means. Those are mostly in these years: 1808, 1825, 1826, 1834, 1852. One or two might have been "top ten" values. 

The minimum of 18.9 for 19th July 2022 is the second highest value on record. The highest was 19.5 on 20th July 2016. The previous second highest was 18.8 on 11th August 1997, followed by 18.7 on 29th July, 1948. 

 

 

Edited July 21, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

18.3c to the 20th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.8c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 19.2C +3.1C above normal. Rainfall up to 0.2mm 0.3% of the monthly average.

Will tomorrow bring more needed rain.

 

[Roger J Smith]

I have edited in the values for the 20th in that record tracker, as expected the 20th did not continue with any records although the daily mean was quite warm at 19.8. The CET has reached 18.3 as a result, will likely fall back a bit but could gain again with any later warm to hot spells. It still looks like finishing in the low 18s at this point. 

The EWP was at 5.4 mm after 19th and probably gained about 1 mm with scattered small amounts on 20th. The outlook on the GFS for ten day totals only adds about 10-15 mm. Taking a provisional total of 22 mm our driest forecast (Earthshine 20 mm) would finish top for the month and this would be the new annual top 47 which includes all 44 who entered this contest (will fill in the details closer to end of the month with the full contest rankings, once I get more confident that the end point will be this low) ... ... ... those entrants with fewer than eight months are shown (e.g. 7/8 for seaside60 below means seven months entered) ... ...

 

PRELIMINARY ANNUAL EWP CONTEST STANDINGS

 

 1. The PIT __________ 56.30

 2. Freeze ___________ 55.85

 3. Feb1991 Blizzard _53.62

 4. Polar Gael _______ 50.96

 5. Bobd29 __________ 50.87

 6. Mulzy ____________ 48.11

 7. Reef ______________ 46.63

 8. NeilN ____________ 44.06

 9. seaside60 ________ 43.72 (7/8)

10. SLEETY ___________42.76

11. DR(S)NO _________ 42.58

12. EdStone _________ 42.04

13. DiagonalRedLine _40.83 

14. weather-history __ 40.78

15. Mr Maunder ______40.41

16. dancerwithwings _ 39.99

17. Roger J Smith _____ 39.93

18. Godber 1 _________ 39.36

19. Don _______________39.25

20. Emmett Garland __39.24

21. JeffC ______________ 38.87

22. daniel* ___________ 38.40 (7/8)

23. J 10 _______________ 38.17

24. Frigid _____________ 37.89

25. rwtwm ____________ 37.53

26. virtualsphere _____ 37.28

27. Midlands Ice Age _ 36.92

28. Wold topper ______ 36.88 (5/8)

29. syed2878 _________ 36.79

30. February 1978 ____ 35.82

31. summer blizzard _ 35.59

32. davehsug _________34.51

33. prolonged SL _____34.39 (7/8)

34. summer8906 ____ 30.86 (6/8)

35. noname_weather_ 30.53

36. jonboy ____________30.36

37. Weather26 ________30.12

38. shillitocettwo _____ 29.53

39. SteveB ____________ 29.25 (6/8)

40. Stargazer _________ 28.76 (6/8)

41. stewfox ___________ 27.63 (6/8)

42. Norrance _________ 27.28 (7/8)

43. snowray __________ 26.36 

44. Earthshine ________ 25.95 (5/8)

45. Stationary Front ___25.59

46. I Rem Atl 252 ______22.43

47. summer18 ________ 20.32

________________________

(daniel* would be 12th if 3.7 points from too late forecast for May added)

 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 19.1C +2.9C above normal. Rainfall up to 1.8mm 2.8% of monthly average.

Some bonus rain offset by drizzle instead of rain today. Hopefully that will change otherwise it'll be my water meter ticking over again when I top the ponds up.

[Snowyowl9]

Driest summer since 1989 or 1990 or driest year since 1976 the way its going..

3 week drought is over today but really only just measurable rainfall...

Edited July 22, 2022 by Snowyowl9

[Summer Sun]

18.2c to the 21st

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[Don]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

18.2c to the 21st

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average
1.7c above the 81 to 10 average

CET likely to drop again after today, perhaps stabilise during the weekend before small drops next week and then maybe a slight uptick at months end.  I wonder if July will finish shy of 18C now?

[Roger J Smith]

Last three days look warm enough to bring it back to the low 18 range, Don, but I agree it seems likely to fall as low as 17.8 at some point around Tuesday possibly. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 19C +2.7C above normal. Rainfall up to 5.6mm 8.8% of the monthly average.

Little in the way of rain in the forecast so still on for the driest July on record.