Drought Watch

[minus10]

Well while we are all enjoying this summer weather (although 18th/19th July were a challenge) we should be aware by now that there is quite a serious drought going on in central, southern and Eastern areas of England. It brought it home to me from comparing the Nasa photos from around this time last year...

Source: Nasa Worldview

Also the very high fire risk that accompanies that..

Noticeable how high the risk is in central and Eastern uk as well as Spain and France...

i thought it would be a good time to set up a new thread and get peoples thoughts on this. Be interesting to hear the experiences of farmers and growers and how they are coping. Myself being a gardener, I have definately noticed the dry and hard condition of the ground in the gardens and the effect that is having on plants that do not cope well in these conditions resulting from the absence of meaningful rain over last few months. So far for July here in Welwyn Garden City, Hertfordshire we have had only 2mm of rain....

Edited February 19, 2023 by Nick L

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I know it's pure coincidence, but the weather does seem to have a way at balancing things out.

Perhaps a wet autumn is on the cards? 

But yes, farmers and gardeners need some rain now for crops and plants. Over the last couple of years, long dry periods with interspersed very unsettled ones have been all too common. Would be nice if the weather was more mixed.

[Durham Weather]

2 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I know it's pure coincidence, but the weather does seem to have a way at balancing things out.

Perhaps a wet autumn is on the cards? 

But yes, farmers and gardeners need some rain now for crops and plants. Over the last couple of years, long dry periods with interspersed very unsettled ones have been all too common. Would be nice if the weather was more mixed.

I think you’re right. There’s always a compensation. Look at Autumn 1976 after the hot summer - wettest on record.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

August is coming so dont worry

[Don]

1 hour ago, Durham Weather said:

I think you’re right. There’s always a compensation. Look at Autumn 1976 after the hot summer - wettest on record.

Will probably get a wet and mild winter! 

[richie3846]

In addition to a summer drought, it's also a longer term drought affecting groundwater levels, therefore river flows in much of the south. It's a complex balance, that requires decent winter rain and saturated soils, in order to recharge the groundwater which gives base flows for many rivers.

One of the problems of a dry summer is it can delay the groundwater recharge in the winter, as it takes longer to wet the soils up in the autumn. 

 

Even though 2018 was even drier in the summer, there was no chance of water restrictions in the south because of high groundwater after the beast from east. This year is different, because the winter was lacking in recharge, and this is why rivers such as the Thames are running at very low flows. If August was hot, we can expect water restrictions to help preserve the base flow of the rivers.

[Durham Weather]

1 hour ago, richie3846 said:

In addition to a summer drought, it's also a longer term drought affecting groundwater levels, therefore river flows in much of the south. It's a complex balance, that requires decent winter rain and saturated soils, in order to recharge the groundwater which gives base flows for many rivers.

One of the problems of a dry summer is it can delay the groundwater recharge in the winter, as it takes longer to wet the soils up in the autumn. 

 

Even though 2018 was even drier in the summer, there was no chance of water restrictions in the south because of high groundwater after the beast from east. This year is different, because the winter was lacking in recharge, and this is why rivers such as the Thames are running at very low flows. If August was hot, we can expect water restrictions to help preserve the base flow of the rivers.

In the North East, Kielder Water ensures we don’t have water restrictions. 

[LetItSnow!]

As stated - I think we're overdue a drought year/years. The UK rainfall levels have usually always been episodic with 2-5 years of very dry weather being followed by very wet weather - however, this hasn't really been the case since the exceptional rainfall of 2012. We've had dry periods (mid-2016 to mid-2017 springs to mind) but no real proper dry periods like 1988-1992 or 1995-1997. While I wouldn't particularly want a repeat, it wouldn't be unreasonable to suggest that this may be the start of a drier couple of years. Or in typical fashion, it could revert to very wet sometime around autumn and lead us into a wet 2023. Time will tell...

It is very, very dry out there though. We had some light rainfall in the past few days but nothing to moisten the ground or green the grass. Here in Islington, much of the parks are starting to go very dusty and brown - I haven't seen that since 2018. It's been perpetually dry here since September 2021. November onwards its been particularly dry. Only February has since brought rather near average rainfall and also a few wetter days in June. 

[slater]

Here in Attleborough mid Norfolk I recorded a below average Jan rainfall, Above Feb, Mar/Apr/May/June well below average, This month 0mm, we have missed all the showers this month. Last measurable rainfall here was 5th June over 20mm which was gentle but at times heavy for a few hours, before that was back in March, over 25mm in a day.

 Normally August can be my wettest month of the year.2021/20/19/18/17 had days from heavy prolonged storms, 2020, I recorded over 80mm in just one day from a storm that sat over us for a good few hours. 

So time will tell if August 2022 will follow the above. 

As always be carful what you all wish for, as I’ve seen many long dry spells, then when the weather gods want to cause havoc in rain they will.

 

 

[Arch Stanton]

11 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

As stated - I think we're overdue a drought year/years. The UK rainfall levels have usually always been episodic with 2-5 years of very dry weather being followed by very wet weather - however, this hasn't really been the case since the exceptional rainfall of 2012. We've had dry periods (mid-2016 to mid-2017 springs to mind) but no real proper dry periods like 1988-1992 or 1995-1997. While I wouldn't particularly want a repeat, it wouldn't be unreasonable to suggest that this may be the start of a drier couple of years. Or in typical fashion, it could revert to very wet sometime around autumn and lead us into a wet 2023. Time will tell...

It is very, very dry out there though. We had some light rainfall in the past few days but nothing to moisten the ground or green the grass. Here in Islington, much of the parks are starting to go very dusty and brown - I haven't seen that since 2018. It's been perpetually dry here since September 2021. November onwards its been particularly dry. Only February has since brought rather near average rainfall and also a few wetter days in June. 

Not sure about it being perpetually dry since last Sept, the ground was absolutely saturated in February this year, but it’s definitely been drier than normal since May and almost drought like since June.

[minus10]

Todays stronger winds and temps around 30 deg here in the south east not helping the drought situation. Although humidity higher than last Monday/ Tuesday, the ground being so tinder dry i would have thought again increases the risk of fires...

 

[Chesil View]

The 'summer drought'  started here in Wyke Regis, Weymouth in March and in the 146 days since 1st March  only 31 have produced measurable rain against a long term ave of 64 days

The total rain that has fallen in that same period is 135mm against a long term average of 297mm

Most striking is that of the 31 days that gave measurable rain only 7 have given in excess of 5mm and only 3 of those gave in excess of 10mm.

So far July is rainless at  my station in terms of measurable rain.

[Earthshine]

Had quite a few days of rain here in Exeter.  Not sure if it's enough though, grass is still pretty brown.

 

[Mapantz]

I wouldn't call it a drought here. A lack of rain compared to previous years, but certainly nothing catastrophic.

[danm]

London and the SE is probably as parched now as summer 2018.

 

[danm]

Parched England could see drought in August if hot, dry weather persists, Environment Agency has warned

NEWS.SKY.COM

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Parts of England experiencing prolonged dry weather could tip into "drought" status if conditions remain the same , though chances of rain could wash away those fears.

 

[HighPressure]

On 23/07/2022 at 19:11, richie3846 said:

In addition to a summer drought, it's also a longer term drought affecting groundwater levels, therefore river flows in much of the south. It's a complex balance, that requires decent winter rain and saturated soils, in order to recharge the groundwater which gives base flows for many rivers.

One of the problems of a dry summer is it can delay the groundwater recharge in the winter, as it takes longer to wet the soils up in the autumn. 

 

Even though 2018 was even drier in the summer, there was no chance of water restrictions in the south because of high groundwater after the beast from east. This year is different, because the winter was lacking in recharge, and this is why rivers such as the Thames are running at very low flows. If August was hot, we can expect water restrictions to help preserve the base flow of the rivers.

As someone that was heavily involved in London's water supply for 2 decades (1990s-2000s) I have seen several drought or near drought situations. The first thing to say is that plenty of water flows down the Thames each winter to refill London's surface reservoirs to the maximum. The Thames supplies @70% of London's water, the Lea Valley @20% and the Kent Boreholes @10%.

Thames Water are saying they supply 2100-2400 Mld (millions of ltrs per day), that is actually a reduction on the peak demands of the 1990's where I saw up to 2800 Mld, summer 1995 was one year I can remember. The boreholes in Kent produced @200-250Mld, so a very small amount in comparison.

So why do we face possible drought restrictions now? The surface reservoirs were fall again this spring, containing @220,000 Million Ltrs, which in theory should equate to @100 days of London's supply needs without the need to abstract more from the River Lea or Thames. The problem is the system does not actually work, so despite the theory, there actually isn't 100 days supply, in fact no where near that. In reality 30 days is probably stretching it, before they are crying out to abstract, and during the summer that is not easy when you have 450Mld pumps and one of those can quite literately suck the Thames dry (It can't because it will conk out on low suction before that).

Because most years it is possible to keep some abstraction going from the Thames and the Lea, the real situation isn't actually seen because the reservoirs can be kept above about 70%. Once the reservoirs dip below 70% you get problems, firstly with water quality, the more shallow the water is the more issues you get with algae, that causes blinding of primary filter beds which mean they need backwashing more often, and that reduces output from works. The next issue you find is that the system is gravity fed, so as you lose head you lose input rates, there are pumps but they cannot cope with anything close to even average demand.

In short if London suffers water restrictions this summer, it will be entirely self inflicted, due to lack of infrastructure improvements and investment over many years. Despite the many risk assessments that have been stuffed under their doors or left on desks, Thames like many other water companies put the pursuit of profit first and only make minimum infrastructure changes when they get caught with their pants down.

Edited July 25, 2022 by HighPressure

[SunnyPlease]

It's very dry here in the SE, and has been for some time now. There aren't many days where I bump into rain when outside, which while obviously can get problematic for water levels if very prolonged, is actually nice to experience in the UK as frequent rain depresses the hell out of me. I wouldn't say it's quite on 2018 levels, but it's mighty close.

But, like 2018, the trend will be reversed in time, and no doubt we will pay back for it in a big way. Hopefully that is in Autumn/Winter rather than August and September. Mother nature always compensates for it, it's just a matter of time.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Drought has ended here in the literal sense. Had a few days of rain now and green grass is slowly returning.

Looks to me like we're seeing the usual edging S of the jet stream as we approach August...as what happened in 2018. May take a while longer for the SE to join in.

[richie3846]

5 hours ago, HighPressure said:

As someone that was heavily involved in London's water supply for 2 decades (1990s-2000s) I have seen several drought or near drought situations. The first thing to say is that plenty of water flows down the Thames each winter to refill London's surface reservoirs to the maximum. The Thames supplies @70% of London's water, the Lea Valley @20% and the Kent Boreholes @10%.

Thames Water are saying they supply 2100-2400 Mld (millions of ltrs per day), that is actually a reduction on the peak demands of the 1990's where I saw up to 2800 Mld, summer 1995 was one year I can remember. The boreholes in Kent produced @200-250Mld, so a very small amount in comparison.

So why do we face possible drought restrictions now? The surface reservoirs were fall again this spring, containing @220,000 Million Ltrs, which in theory should equate to @100 days of London's supply needs without the need to abstract more from the River Lea or Thames. The problem is the system does not actually work, so despite the theory, there actually isn't 100 days supply, in fact no where near that. In reality 30 days is probably stretching it, before they are crying out to abstract, and during the summer that is not easy when you have 450Mld pumps and one of those can quite literately suck the Thames dry (It can't because it will conk out on low suction before that).

Because most years it is possible to keep some abstraction going from the Thames and the Lea, the real situation isn't actually seen because the reservoirs can be kept above about 70%. Once the reservoirs dip below 70% you get problems, firstly with water quality, the more shallow the water is the more issues you get with algae, that causes blinding of primary filter beds which mean they need backwashing more often, and that reduces output from works. The next issue you find is that the system is gravity fed, so as you lose head you lose input rates, there are pumps but they cannot cope with anything close to even average demand.

In short if London suffers water restrictions this summer, it will be entirely self inflicted, due to lack of infrastructure improvements and investment over many years. Despite the many risk assessments that have been stuffed under their doors or left on desks, Thames like many other water companies put the pursuit of profit first and only make minimum infrastructure changes when they get caught with their pants down.

Wow that is a fascinating insight, I had no idea about all that. It's scandalous really, because from what you say, Thames Water aren't doing enough to protect the ecology of the river when it comes to a dry year like this one. Is this the same for Farmoor, with the reservoir needing to be full to work well? It rarely runs low, but this year the flows at Farmoor are practically grinding to a halt, so I can't imagine Thames Water can abstract any more water without a drought order. 

[danm]

Drought fears after England suffers driest spell since 1976

WWW.THETIMES.CO.UK

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Most of the country has moved into a state of ‘prolonged dry weather’

 

[Summer Sun]

Following a meeting today, the National Drought Group has decided not to declare a Drought.

Edited July 26, 2022 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Manx Utilities will enforce a hosepipe ban for domestic users from Friday on the Isle of Man, anyone who breaches the ban face a fine of up to £2,000

[The PIT]

No drought here keeps raining not a lot generally. July just managed with 15 days and more without more than 0.2mm of rain

[Weather26]

9 minutes ago, The PIT said:

No drought here keeps raining not a lot generally. July just managed with 15 days and more without more than 0.2mm of rain

And we had a surprise shower early this morning too.

Now watch them declare a drought and then it pours down at some point during August (just as what happened in 1976 the moment they appointed a minster for drought.)