Drought Watch

[stainesbloke]

On 26/07/2022 at 23:36, ResonantChannelThunder said:

Let it rain all August I say. I don't care if people moan about it, some things are more important. Looking at the models though, little chance of any rain where it's needed going into next month. 

Some rainfall obviously needed in some parts but it won’t do much good in August. Much better to have a wet autumn and especially winter to replenish water levels. Fingers crossed.

[Blessed Weather]

23 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

When trundling along to Tesco, yesterday, I noticed an alder (och weel, I think it was an alder) whose leaves were almost totally yellow and about to fall off, and I haven't seen that since 2018.

We have, I think, a potentially worrying situation developing?

Yes, trees really suffering Pete. An article in the Telegraph today confirming your fears.

UK is experiencing earliest signs of autumn in 20 years

Trees are dropping their leaves weeks ahead of schedule due to record-breaking temperatures and a lack of water

The UK is experiencing the earliest signs of autumn in 20 years, prompted by the recent record breaking heatwave, and the driest July since 1911.

Extreme temperatures and a lack of water have caused trees to drop their leaves and berries to ripen weeks ahead of schedule.

Most of England is already in prolonged dry weather status and an official drought could be called within weeks if the current conditions continue.

Full article (pay walled) : https://www.telegraph.co.uk/environment/2022/07/27/uk-weather-england-records-driest-july-century/

[Mapantz]

36 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Some rainfall obviously needed in some parts but it won’t do much good in August. Much better to have a wet autumn and especially winter to replenish water levels. Fingers crossed.

I don't know when, but I suspect it'll come in deluges which will cause flooding etc.

Even my own data for here over the past 6 years shows that it goes from dry to very wet and back to dry again, with nothing in between. It won't be long before we're all complaining about it being wet all the time. 

Edited July 27, 2022 by Mapantz

[hillbilly]

On 26/07/2022 at 21:28, Ed Stone said:

When trundling along to Tesco, yesterday, I noticed an alder (och weel, I think it was an alder) whose leaves were almost totally yellow and about to fall off, and I haven't seen that since 2018.

We have, I think, a potentially worrying situation developing?

There are a couple of trees opposite my house like that.

[hillbilly]

28 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Yes, trees really suffering Pete. An article in the Telegraph today confirming your fears.

UK is experiencing earliest signs of autumn in 20 years

Trees are dropping their leaves weeks ahead of schedule due to record-breaking temperatures and a lack of water

The UK is experiencing the earliest signs of autumn in 20 years, prompted by the recent record breaking heatwave, and the driest July since 1911.

Extreme temperatures and a lack of water have caused trees to drop their leaves and berries to ripen weeks ahead of schedule.

Most of England is already in prolonged dry weather status and an official drought could be called within weeks if the current conditions continue.

Full article (pay walled) : https://www.telegraph.co.uk/environment/2022/07/27/uk-weather-england-records-driest-july-century/

That happened in 2018 here!

[hillbilly]

Not sure about nationally but here 1995 was much drier than 1976.A water well near me never dried up in 1976 but was dry for many weeks in 1995 also where 1976 suddenly ended with one of the wettest Septembers the drought continued in 1995 all through winter and right through until Autumn 1996 with resevoirs never getting above 50%.

[HighPressure]

8 hours ago, kold weather said:

Whats really becoming more worrying is we've got several LP systems that are set to move through in the nearby area and despite that there really isn't much rain forecasted on the fronts at all. A possible 5-10mm isn't really going to make up for the dryness seen in the last few months in particular. 

This next week is vital because if we can't get a decent frontal rainfall (I mean a 20-30mm jobbie over a 3-4 day period, at least) then we appear highly likely to move back into a very dry pattern and we would probably be looking for thundery rain from the south after a hot snap to break the pattern down.

The only upshot is time is starting to swing back in our favour, as the days start to quite rapidly reduce in length through August which reduces the time temperatures are at/near their peak vs June/July. 

Still a warm and dry August probably will put the SE at least clearly into official drought territory.

Unless we get steady and persistent rain in August, any rain is likely to have no real direct influence on the water supply situation.

Factors that do have an impact, last week of July and first couple of August see reduced demand in urban areas up to 10% in London as so many people are away and businesses are closed. Cloud and cooler temperatures will also help reduce demand, people do not water their gardens if it looks like its going to rain.

A deluge of rain is often counterproductive especially after a prolonged dry spell. The ground is hard so any rain which does not evaporate becomes runoff into the rivers, that will wash all those gathered pollutants and organic materials straight into the river. That causes oxygen depletion, kills the fish and can actually stop any abstraction hat was running.

They end up having to get this chap out :

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, kold weather said:

Whats really becoming more worrying is we've got several LP systems that are set to move through in the nearby area and despite that there really isn't much rain forecasted on the fronts at all. A possible 5-10mm isn't really going to make up for the dryness seen in the last few months in particular. 

This next week is vital because if we can't get a decent frontal rainfall (I mean a 20-30mm jobbie over a 3-4 day period, at least) then we appear highly likely to move back into a very dry pattern and we would probably be looking for thundery rain from the south after a hot snap to break the pattern down.

The only upshot is time is starting to swing back in our favour, as the days start to quite rapidly reduce in length through August which reduces the time temperatures are at/near their peak vs June/July. 

Still a warm and dry August probably will put the SE at least clearly into official drought territory.

Time is on our side.. typically we are entering the wetter half of the year..  

29 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

Not sure about nationally but here 1995 was much drier than 1976.A water well near me never dried up in 1976 but was dry for many weeks in 1995 also where 1976 suddenly ended with one of the wettest Septembers the drought continued in 1995 all through winter and right through until Autumn 1996 with resevoirs never getting above 50%.

The dry spells lasted through until May 97. It was exceptional. 

[danm]

England endures driest July for 111 years

WWW.THETIMES.CO.UK

---

England is having its driest July in 111 years with only a quarter of its usual rainfall, the Met Office has said.Meteorologists said there had been only 15.8mm of rain averaged across...

There had been only 15.8mm of rain averaged across England, 24 per cent of the amount that would be expected, making this month the driest July since 1911.

The Met Office said that at this stage in the month the country would have expected well over three quarters of the month’s rain to have already fallen in an average July.

[Row w]

9 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Some rainfall obviously needed in some parts but it won’t do much good in August. Much better to have a wet autumn and especially winter to replenish water levels. Fingers crossed.

Wet autumn and snowy winter 

[ChannelThunder]

Another morning, another dry set of models. This drought (I'm going to use the word because it very much applies here) already feels endless, but we might only be halfway through it!

[danm]

Interesting article. It says the average amount of rainfall we see each year has remained relatively unchanged since 1840, however; “The problem is where and when it rains. More is falling in the winter and less in the summer, and the rain that does come is increasingly geographically focused. This is why some parts of Britain flood in winter while others face drought in summer. In February, Storm Franklin brought flooding to Cumbria, Dumfries and Galloway and the Scottish Borders; London, a few hundred miles to the south, gets just 106 days of rainfall a year, which is about half the average rainfall of Sydney, Australia.”

 

Britain takes water for granted – and we’re heading towards a crisis

WWW.TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

---

Decreasing rainfall, rising temperatures, a growing population and leaky pipes are threatening to leave us parched

 

[Emz by the Thames]

All the rowan tree berries in our car park are already orange, this doesn't usually happen until early September.

Some of my plants at the allotment have seemingly pressed the fast forward button since the heatwave due to stress and have either bolted, gone to seed or started to ripen early.

Edited July 28, 2022 by Team Squirrel

[stainesbloke]

4 hours ago, Row w said:

Wet autumn and snowy winter 

Snow is water There’ll need to be a lot of it 

[kold weather]

13 hours ago, HighPressure said:

Unless we get steady and persistent rain in August, any rain is likely to have no real direct influence on the water supply situation.

 

Thats more what I'm looking for, frontal rain, persistent but not too intense for reasons you say. It did look for a brief time like we were going to get some of that, probably no where near enough but every little helps when its not too intense.

Still some possiblity for Monday/Tuesday of some rains, but beyond that signs of high pressure moving in seem to be increasing again.

[Weather26]

I still feel August (more towards the end) is going to be the month where it breaks completely-it may takes it's time but a genuinely think this south/North spilt we've for virtually the whole year (February and storm Franklin aside) has to break at some point, drought or no drought.

[HighPressure]

11 hours ago, kold weather said:

Thats more what I'm looking for, frontal rain, persistent but not too intense for reasons you say. It did look for a brief time like we were going to get some of that, probably no where near enough but every little helps when its not too intense.

Still some possiblity for Monday/Tuesday of some rains, but beyond that signs of high pressure moving in seem to be increasing again.

At the risk of boring everyone, September / October are key months, if they are dry, not only do the reservoirs keep dropping but they become difficult to refill.

One thing they found out in 1976 (well before my time), is that you cannot just refill a clay core reservoir as fast as you like. Clay as you know dries out and we see those famous cracked ground photos as in this thread. If you refill too quickly the clay does not have time to gain moisture, so the water comes out the cracks and runs down the outside of the banks, and can undermine structural integrity.

Each reservoir has a maximum daily refill rate which we used to calculate each morning before setting the abstraction regime, its only cm's per day. If you start low you have a risk of going into the following summer without maximum storage, and the cycle repeats...

Edited July 28, 2022 by HighPressure

[Summer Sun]

Hampshire and the Isle of Wight banned from using hosepipes from next friday

[legion_quest]

Wouldn't worry to much. All this excess heat will soon create a lot of extra water. It'll just be salty. 

[*Stormforce~beka*]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Hampshire and the Isle of Wight banned from using hosepipes from next friday

I can for my live stock so doesn't really affect me much! Just I can't water my veggies with it. Boo!

[Summer Sun]

Scotland of all places is facing a hosepipe ban in parts of the country with some areas around mid and north of Fife to enter "significant scarcity" for water next week

Water bans on the way in Scotland if official drought declared

WWW.THETIMES.CO.UK

---

Parts of Scotland are about to enter official drought conditions, forcing the environment watchdog to introduce water bans.It is thought the restriction on abst

 

[richie3846]

On 28/07/2022 at 09:40, danm said:

Interesting article. It says the average amount of rainfall we see each year has remained relatively unchanged since 1840, however; “The problem is where and when it rains. More is falling in the winter and less in the summer, and the rain that does come is increasingly geographically focused. This is why some parts of Britain flood in winter while others face drought in summer. In February, Storm Franklin brought flooding to Cumbria, Dumfries and Galloway and the Scottish Borders; London, a few hundred miles to the south, gets just 106 days of rainfall a year, which is about half the average rainfall of Sydney, Australia.”

 

Britain takes water for granted – and we’re heading towards a crisis

WWW.TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

---

Decreasing rainfall, rising temperatures, a growing population and leaky pipes are threatening to leave us parched

 

There has been talk about is moving gradually to a Mediterranean climate, which the primary feature is wetter winters relative to a very dry summer period (not literally the 3 months on the calendar). This is becoming increasingly apparent over recent years in areas which are already fairly dry. Over the last decade I've been keeping close watch of rainfall patterns in my locality, and it's evident that farming is becoming a headache, with several severe dry periods over the decade, and several severe wet periods, with 2013 to 14 winter being absolutely horrendous locally, for excessive winter rains. A couple of years back, we had the wettest ever spell of October rains, which only avoided catastrophe because of exceptional dryness in the soils from an arid September. Rainfall in this area is becoming increasingly sporadic and unreliable. There have been a couple of near misses of more persistent and severe drought over the last decade. 

 

I don't want to be doom and gloom about it, but I suspect we have a bottled up disaster in our midst, and it's only a matter of time before we get a couple of dry winters and a couple of modern dry summers, and we'll be feeling the pain when that happens.

[minus10]

Well, what is this then for Sunday...

some much needed rain further south, however unlikely to be that significant...but anything is welcome...

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well, what is this then for Sunday...

some much needed rain further south, however unlikely to be that significant...but anything is welcome...

Alleluia!

[kold weather]

37 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well, what is this then for Sunday...

some much needed rain further south, however unlikely to be that significant...but anything is welcome...

Most models going for 5-10mm for the areas that *really* need it. 

Drought buster that is not though, especially with what is coming afterwards again is a lengthy HP spell. 

I fear widespread hose pipe bans for the SE are now literally 1-2 weeks away, they already have been introduced in parts of Hampshire.

It is SO dry out there now, its locally drier than even 2018 as the lake I use as a reference is now totally gone. I went down to bordon today to walk the dog and the enclosure there honestly looked like the Serengeti dry season with how yellow and dusty everything was, and the ponds/lakes are also basically gone just leaving wet/not so wed mud patches.