Drought Watch

[minus10]

19 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

Yes veg first. It's a long walk up to the top of the bleeding garden from here too! Gonna fill a garden bin with water me thinks. Still got the paddling pool up from the heat a few weeks back too. So will use that to empty and water the plants as well

Good idea...any spare water even washing up water if it is not too sudsy...gosh it feels like i am gardening in one of these middle eastern/ hot dry med countries this morning...hard going although my phone says it is a humid 22 deg..ground is just sooo dry and dusty...

[TwisterGirl81]

Well here's the rainfall anomaly map from met office for July, it's no surprising, less than 20% rainfall totals for July for most of southern area's, some places probably have 0%.  I've a feeling August will be similar, I'm beginning to miss the sound of rain on my bedroom window at night, it really has been so long since we had any meaningful rain.  Don't get me wrong, loving the sunny dry weather though but would have been nice to have had some thunderstorms and heavy rain too, it's parched down here.

Edited August 1, 2022 by TwisterGirl81

[seb]

I think neither should we rule out extreme heat nor should we bank it. 
 

The more important matter is that the South and East are all but guaranteed to have another two weeks of summer weather which in other years we’d pray for, along with no rain. Considering that large swathes of the South and East have had 10% of their average July rainfall and the landscape resembles Spain, Portugal or Southern California I would say it’s clear that summer 2022 is extraordinary and record-breaking. There are no signs whatsoever in any model which imply a change to that, whether extreme heat happens or not.

[damianslaw]

13 minutes ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Well here's the rainfall anomaly map from met office for July, it's no surprising, less than 20% rainfall totals for July for most of southern area's, some places probably have 0%.  I've a feeling August will be similar, I'm beginning to miss the sound of rain on my bedroom window at night, it really has been so long since we had any meaningful rain.  Don't get me wrong, loving the sunny dry weather though but would have been nice to have had some thunderstorms and heavy rain too, it's parched down here.

Just on the light brown/ white border. A dry month here but not especially so. Everything still very green.

7 minutes ago, seb said:

I think neither should we rule out extreme heat nor should we bank it. 
 

The more important matter is that the South and East are all but guaranteed to have another two weeks of summer weather which in other years we’d pray for, along with no rain. Considering that large swathes of the South and East have had 10% of their average July rainfall and the landscape resembles Spain, Portugal or Southern California I would say it’s clear that summer 2022 is extraordinary and record-breaking. There are no signs whatsoever in any model which imply a change to that, whether extreme heat happens or not.

1995 and 2018 brought weeks of  dusty arid ground. This is not exceptional. 1995 more exceptional as it was countrywide. 

Edited August 1, 2022 by damianslaw

[minus10]

Lets look forward to the gfs6z prec ens for 15th...yes ...

something that is rare these days here in the south...a rain spike...oh wait..it is the 15th....

[TwisterGirl81]

13 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just on the light brown/ white border. A dry month here but not especially so. Everything still very green.

1995 and 2018 brought weeks of  dusty arid ground. This is not exceptional. 1995 more exceptional as it was countrywide. 

Yea i have to say it's not too exceptional for south eastern places as they are usually the driest, warmest, sunniest place in summer but the longevity of the dryer than average period since the end of last year is exceptional I would say?

[seb]

17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Just on the light brown/ white border. A dry month here but not especially so. Everything still very green.

1995 and 2018 brought weeks of  dusty arid ground. This is not exceptional. 1995 more exceptional as it was countrywide. 

Well considering it’s the driest July on record (and every month since February has been well below average), I’d say it is extremely exceptional.

I have never experienced drought like this in this country. 

[minus10]

1 hour ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Well here's the rainfall anomaly map from met office for July, it's no surprising, less than 20% rainfall totals for July for most of southern area's, some places probably have 0%.  I've a feeling August will be similar, I'm beginning to miss the sound of rain on my bedroom window at night, it really has been so long since we had any meaningful rain.  Don't get me wrong, loving the sunny dry weather though but would have been nice to have had some thunderstorms and heavy rain too, it's parched down here.

Quite an incredible anomaly for July...the demarkation between the tinder dry south east and the wetter north west quite stark. Even in south east scotland most areas had at least 50 % or more than average with a few exceptions...still dry but not as dry...re matt and good feeling weather...fully agree mate as i speak of someone who is a 'sad' person. However ......gotta have some proper rain here in the south...south east..pref at night or just a day or so (he says naively)..out in the gardens now it is just a dry dust bowl......

 

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Just on the light brown/ white border. A dry month here but not especially so. Everything still very green.

1995 and 2018 brought weeks of  dusty arid ground. This is not exceptional. 1995 more exceptional as it was countrywide. 

It is exceptional in the south- no two ways about it.

[TwisterGirl81]

39 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Quite an incredible anomaly for July...the demarkation between the tinder dry south east and the wetter north west quite stark. Even in south east scotland most areas had at least 50 % or more than average with a few exceptions...still dry but not as dry...re matt and good feeling weather...fully agree mate as i speak of someone who is a 'sad' person. However ......gotta have some proper rain here in the south...south east..pref at night or just a day or so (he says naively)..out in the gardens now it is just a dry dust bowl......

 

I agree, dreading the water bill as i've had to use the garden hose to water the whole garden lawn so many times to keep it from drying and keep the vegetable plants and shrubs watered.  I had water butt installed nearly 2 months ago and its been filled up once in June from a day of frontal rain, thats pretty much it of any measurable rain.  

Edited August 1, 2022 by TwisterGirl81

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

It is exceptional in the south- no two ways about it.

Not wanting to detail this thread and better to go in drought thread, but statements are always best backed up with statistics. Anyone share previous very dry 6 and 12 month periods for comparison. I suspect the last 6 month equal dry spell was March to August 95. That was exceptionally dry. All depends on how you define exceptional..  if you mean a one off.. let's see what the stats say...

Edited August 1, 2022 by damianslaw

[dryfie]

3 hours ago, TwisterGirl81 said:

Well here's the rainfall anomaly map from met office for July, it's no surprising, less than 20% rainfall totals for July for most of southern area's, some places probably have 0%.  I've a feeling August will be similar, I'm beginning to miss the sound of rain on my bedroom window at night, it really has been so long since we had any meaningful rain.  Don't get me wrong, loving the sunny dry weather though but would have been nice to have had some thunderstorms and heavy rain too, it's parched down here.

Not sure if my monitor is badly set up, but are there very odd and extreme variations across the Western Isles?

[ChannelThunder]

The easiest summer of all time to make outdoor plans weeks ahead, safe in the knowledge it won't rain.

[damianslaw]

Rainfall stats for Kew 1995 for comparison:

March 52mm

April 15mm, May 40mm, June 21mm, July 29mm, Aug less than 1mm.. September though was notably wet 84mm followed by a very dry October 26mm.

Driest period ever since records began in 1767 was May 75 to Aug 76. That period brought two hot summers. As with 95, Sept was very wet indeed. I would not be at all surprised to see Sept or October very wet. Or ar least a sudden end to the dry spell.. happens time and time again.

Kew 1976 - Jan 15mm, Feb 21mm, March 9mm, Apr 9mm, May 22mm  June 8mm, July 25mm, August 13mm..

Edited August 1, 2022 by damianslaw

[damianslaw]

See stats I've posted in drought thread for Kew.. 1976 and 1995.. 1976 was exceptionally dry first 8 months of the year and a dry benchmark to compare 2022 with.. Winter 75-76 very mild as well like this winter gone.. difference is it came on the back of a very dry hot summer in 75, last summer no where near as dry and warm overall especially SE.

Edited August 1, 2022 by damianslaw

[minus10]

11 minutes ago, dryfie said:

Not sure if my monitor is badly set up, but are there very odd and extreme variations across the Western Isles?

Yes the Western Isles look as so they are suffering the same dry conditions as south east England.??..

[reef]

Driest January-July periods here since 1980:

2022: 213.0mm
1990: 282.0mm
1991: 286.7mm
1989: 298.0mm
2013: 305.0mm
2011: 318.8mm
1996: 327.7mm
2009: 333.8mm
2010: 334.2mm
91-20: 351.1mm

Driest Aug-Jul rolling 12 months since 1980:

2021-22: 439.0mm
1988-89: 456.8mm
1995-96: 495.0mm
1989-90: 495.7mm
2005-06: 518.0mm
1990-91: 527.7mm
1991-92: 543.1mm
2009-10: 570.8mm
2010-11: 571.8mm
1991-20: 659.7mm

I dont have records for 1976, but at nearby Hull, Jan-Jul 1976 saw 244.7mm and Aug 1975 - Jul 1976 saw 441.4mm so its comparable or drier even this year.
 

[seb]

14 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Rainfall stats for Kew 1995 for comparison:

March 52mm

April 15mm, May 40mm, June 21mm, July 29mm, Aug less than 1mm.. September though was notably wet 84mm followed by a very dry October 26mm.

Driest period ever since records began in 1767 was May 75 to Aug 76. That period brought two hot summers. As with 95, Sept was very wet indeed. I would not be at all surprised to see Sept or October very wet. Or ar least a sudden end to the dry spell.. happens time and time again.

Kew 1976 - Jan 15mm, Feb 21mm, March 9mm, Apr 9mm, May 22mm  June 8mm, July 25mm, August 13mm..

Unfortunately we do not have a weather station here or anywhere in Kent anymore so I can’t give you stats.

What I can say is that all winter I barely needed to dry the dogs when out. Normally I need to wash their towels every other day.

As for the summer drought, the last measurable rain here was 30 May. The ground is bone dry down to half a meter. Grass is dead. Leaves are falling everywhere. I need to top up the pond daily (once a week during summer normally, if that). I have found 4 dried out dead slow worms in the last week in the garden.

[Stav]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Not wanting to detail this thread and better to go in drought thread, but statements are always best backed up with statistics. Anyone share previous very dry 6 and 12 month periods for comparison. I suspect the last 6 month equal dry spell was March to August 95. That was exceptionally dry. All depends on how you define exceptional..  if you mean a one off.. let's see what the stats say...

Well it seems pretty exceptional according to the Met Office just a while ago: "England had its driest July since 1935, with parts having the least rainfall on record, the Met Office has said.

Driest July in England since 1935 - Met Office

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Parts of England saw the driest July on record with serious impacts on farmland and wildfire.

 

[minus10]

11 minutes ago, seb said:

Unfortunately we do not have a weather station here or anywhere in Kent anymore so I can’t give you stats.

What I can say is that all winter I barely needed to dry the dogs when out. Normally I need to wash their towels every other day.

As for the summer drought, the last measurable rain here was 30 May. The ground is bone dry down to half a meter. Grass is dead. Leaves are falling everywhere. I need to top up the pond daily (once a week during summer normally, if that). I have found 4 dried out dead slow worms in the last week in the garden.

Yes i think that obviously the dry 6 month lead up this year to July set the scene however it was July with its very hot and dry days at times that has really exacerbated this drought situation in the south..

The met office anomoly maps tell their own story...

Mean max temp

Showing 'mean' temps above 24 and in some cases above 26 degrees..

Rainfull actual value..

showing a good part of central and southern England had between zero and 25mm of rainfull. This is the game changer....

[Dorsetbred]

I'd appreciate some rain pleeze...

For July it went like this

Now at

August looks set fair for a couple of dry weeks down here, we need a Bay of Biscay low to track northwards, being our best hope for any amount of rain.

[Scorcher]

2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Not wanting to detail this thread and better to go in drought thread, but statements are always best backed up with statistics. Anyone share previous very dry 6 and 12 month periods for comparison. I suspect the last 6 month equal dry spell was March to August 95. That was exceptionally dry. All depends on how you define exceptional..  if you mean a one off.. let's see what the stats say...

Final post from me on this, but have you been in the south recently? If you spend some time there you don't need statistics to prove how exceptionally dry it's been- it looks like a desert in places!

I'm wondering how dry it needs to be to be exceptional for you Damian? This dry spell is up there with 1976 and 1995 in parts of the country. Those were exceptional years too.

Perhaps the less exceptionally dry summer in the Lake District is skewing your perception? Even here in the Manchester area things have been pretty brown- although greening up again slightly after the rain over the last week.

[minus10]

New month, same location of rain areas...

 

Edited August 1, 2022 by minus10

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, minus10 said:

Yes i think that obviously the dry 6 month lead up this year to July set the scene however it was July with its very hot and dry days at times that has really exacerbated this drought situation in the south..

The met office anomoly maps tell their own story...

Mean max temp

Showing 'mean' temps above 24 and in some cases above 26 degrees..

Rainfull actual value..

showing a good part of central and southern England had between zero and 25mm of rainfull. This is the game changer....

You can tell where the highest ground is located on those maps. Lake District white/blue - only place near average temps and average rainfall. A marked NW-SE divide if ever in a month.

 

Thanks for stats for East Yorkshire, its been a notably dry period in the east. Further west much less so.. I think it has been attributed to the northerly positioned jetstream and persistent SW airflow. 1989-90 was very similiar. Azores high certainly seems further north than default position, it has laid limpet to our SW for months..

Edited August 1, 2022 by damianslaw

[h2005__uk__]

4 hours ago, minus10 said:

Rainfall actual value..

 

What's up with their scale? Surely it should show it as a percentage of expected rainfall. I know the July average for me is 44mm which would still (misleadingly) be at the darker brown end of this scale. I suspect most other places would still show dark brown even with an average amount too.