Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

[Arnie Pie]

4 minutes ago, Rufus Butterfield said:

That`s some updrafts

[BlueHedgehog074]

Absolutely just smashed it down with hail at Hillier’s/Rosebourne near Balsall Common (while visiting!). Just as heavy as some of the thundery downpours in Summer. 

[Arnie Pie]

4 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Absolutely just smashed it down with hail at Hillier’s/Rosebourne near Balsall Common (while visiting!). Just as heavy as some of the thundery downpours in Summer. 

I can see them on the radar they should come into view to the far E

[BlueHedgehog074]

Clearance of the shower to the East. 

[Metwatch]

The back end, what a beaut!

Edited March 17, 2023 by Metwatch

[Eagle Eye]

26 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Absolutely just smashed it down with hail at Hillier’s/Rosebourne near Balsall Common (while visiting!). Just as heavy as some of the thundery downpours in Summer. 

Not surprised. Very cold uppers and low shearing is an absolute recipe for hail.

[Metwatch]

Little time-lapse of the showers to finish off, a great afternoon! 

[Rush2019]

Some nice convection to my SE Buxton way.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Hopefully this will be the start of what’s to come for us/storm enthusiasts throughout Spring and Summer. 

[Jamie M]

Little bit of instability in the SE tonight, be curious to see how it plays out. 

[Thunders]

23 minutes ago, Jamie M said:

Little bit of instability in the SE tonight, be curious to see how it plays out. 

Hopefully 

 

[CoventryWeather]

Had a small storm in Cov earlier (don't know if you heard anything @Metwatch) - only a few distant rumbles around ten to three. 

I was in a mock exam so couldn't check whether any lightening was produced. 

Also noticed a strange shape to that system near Grantham (not saying supercell) but seems to have a slight split aspect to it. Let others discuss that as I'm fairly new to storm types and stuff.

[Metwatch]

13 minutes ago, CoventryWeather said:

Had a small storm in Cov earlier (don't know if you heard anything @Metwatch) - only a few distant rumbles around ten to three. 

I was in a mock exam so couldn't check whether any lightening was produced. 

Also noticed a strange shape to that system near Grantham (not saying supercell) but seems to have a slight split aspect to it. Let others discuss that as I'm fairly new to storm types and stuff.

I thought I may have heard a faint rumble but not entirely sure, regardless of that, amazing structure on the back end of the shower/storm and a rainbow to add too.

Lovely mild March day with showers all in all! 

Edited March 17, 2023 by Metwatch

[Jamie M]

Believe we have some AcCas rolling in here. 

[ChannelThunder]

Nothing worth getting all that excited about of course, but notable that it's only 18 days since the end of winter, and we've got our first clusters of elevated showers of the year coming across the channel already. 

[Mapantz]

Wareham Weather - Weather Cam

WAREHAMWX.CO.UK

---

Live RTSP webcam feed of the sky, pointed toward Poole and Bournemouth, using a Reolink 511WA IP Camera

 

You could mistake that view for being Summer.

[Mapantz]

[Eagle Eye]

Decent sunset and cool looking distant Channel shower.

Edited March 17, 2023 by Eagle Eye

[Rufus Butterfield]

Had a nice looking shower pass over with the sunlight shining through the rain core. 

[Thunders]

Is anything looking hopeful or any changes?
 

[alexisj9]

Just rain here so far.

[The Tall Weatherman]

Regarding Tomorrow It seems like it will be less of a bust than today for The Midlands and South. Firstly It seems like storms should break the cap and be widespread very Quickly as shown by the latest 18z UKV. Storms should also have some surface Heating to feed off of as the Midlands is situated over a reasonably Mild Airmass (14-16 Celsius) and the Sun should be shining sparingly in the late morning. The Cape amount should get the job done ( <800 SB Cape ) Locally around the Central/East England area at around 13z-15z as well. The Main Hazards Include Small hail and some Thunder depending on Cell strength.

[Eagle Eye]

 

Me and Jayy's forecast for tomorrow

Convective Discussion

Friday 23:59 - Saturday 21:00

Showery rain pushes across the South and south east in the morning with an occluded front providing some instability for a strike or two of lightning possibly but shallow cloud heights should limit that.

Behind that occluded front and surface heating with any cloud breaks should allow for 700-800+ J/KG of SBCAPE and hefty showers and thunderstorms could form. Kinematics such as high positive vorticity promotes convergence and better storm formation but it looks like the shearing will be fairly limited with the best in the SE/London area (with slightly limited CAPE though) and up to the Midlands and parts of the eastern coast where the slight risk has been added due to taller Storms and therefore theoretically better lightning chances.

There may be favourable kinematics elsewhere such as strong moisture flux in areas along the west coast of Wales and northern England but the latent heat release is likely to be weaker there and forecasted soundings in the area suggest a warm dry nose at the 600MB and the air is less buoyant there especially towards the mid-levels.

Compare that to the slight risk and though there's some weak dry air at the 700MB layer, that should erode given the buoyancy and amount of energy and the moisture looks better (when in conjunction with temperature) above that till about 22,000 feet so given very good kinematics Storms could reach that that but its unlikely. I think a more realistic height is around 18,000 feet in the slight risk area.

Weak low-level shear and decent lapse-rates keep up the risk for small hail but the lapse-rates are likely to be a lot weaker than Wednesday and Thursday. Main risks with these are heavy rain and small hail as well as sporadic lightning, some organised Storms are possible in the areas of highest shearing.

[Allseasons-Si]

Wow this thread has got off to a flyer which is good to see,...saw some nice Cn's(cumulonimbus) earlier today towards the east at break today probably from that cell that @Rufus Butterfield posted ^^

i might be chasing tomorrow for the first time this year as the movement of cells will be slow moving,...if i don't see or get a storm then there will be some good cloudscapse to take some snaps of which will be the added bonus,...love photography of clouds as you know,i have posted quite a few over the years

also i am going to try and get a better camera which is next on my list

happy storm hunting guys and good luck tomorrow

[Eagle Eye]

11 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

West Ireland 

 

West Ireland must have been too saturated in the end with a sort of rain cold pool holding back instability, it's seen quite commonly but difficult to forecast often.