Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

[Iceman2606]

Afternoon convection today in Northamptonshire.🌦 (Sorry about the slight shakiness)

 

 

[Weather-history]

Looking east and northwest

 

[Eagle Eye]

11 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:

 

Me and Jayy's forecast for tomorrow

Convective Discussion

Friday 23:59 - Saturday 21:00

Showery rain pushes across the South and south east in the morning with an occluded front providing some instability for a strike or two of lightning possibly but shallow cloud heights should limit that.

Behind that occluded front and surface heating with any cloud breaks should allow for 700-800+ J/KG of SBCAPE and hefty showers and thunderstorms could form. Kinematics such as high positive vorticity promotes convergence and better storm formation but it looks like the shearing will be fairly limited with the best in the SE/London area (with slightly limited CAPE though) and up to the Midlands and parts of the eastern coast where the slight risk has been added due to taller Storms and therefore theoretically better lightning chances.

There may be favourable kinematics elsewhere such as strong moisture flux in areas along the west coast of Wales and northern England but the latent heat release is likely to be weaker there and forecasted soundings in the area suggest a warm dry nose at the 600MB and the air is less buoyant there especially towards the mid-levels.

Compare that to the slight risk and though there's some weak dry air at the 700MB layer, that should erode given the buoyancy and amount of energy and the moisture looks better (when in conjunction with temperature) above that till about 22,000 feet so given very good kinematics Storms could reach that that but its unlikely. I think a more realistic height is around 18,000 feet in the slight risk area.

Weak low-level shear and decent lapse-rates keep up the risk for small hail but the lapse-rates are likely to be a lot weaker than Wednesday and Thursday. Main risks with these are heavy rain and small hail as well as sporadic lightning, some organised Storms are possible in the areas of highest shearing.

Me and Jayy's risk for today that we sent out yesterday vs Convective Weather's that they sent out today, I'd say it's probably good news that we have a very similar risk to the professionals.

[Sparkiee storm]

Convection starting here already. First time back on this thread since October 

[CoventryWeather]

Thick ish cloud here struggling to break up. Can see towers towards the west (might be the convection that @Sparkiee stormcan see). 

Best of look today, hopefully some stunning cloudscapes on this thread later (when the cloud clears).

[Sparkiee storm]

Yeah some decent towers just to the North.

[Rufus Butterfield]

Feels quite humid today. Once the cloud finally breaks up I reckon it’s go time!

[UnderTheAnvil]

After the thundersnow, this week is shaping up to be interesting, I would love a wet and unsettled summer, I hope this start to spring is a good indicator of things to come.

[CoventryWeather]

Couple of large towers (cumulus mediocris) developing to my south. Just seemed to explode as the sun came out! 

Expecting the first storms to develop in the next hour or so. 

[Sparkiee storm]

Very rapid development just to the North again where convection has been happening, this cloud shot up in the space of 10 minutes and now an echo on the radar.

Edited March 18, 2023 by Sparkiee storm

[Metwatch]

Some convection around now looking at the Coventry Airport webcam. 

Feeling warm in that sunshine so should help with convection further now! 

[Sparkiee storm]

Been interesting watching this line build up for the last hour. 

[The Tall Weatherman]

Rain is not clearing very quickly across the East Midlands allowing more Energy to build up in the next few hours. Latest UKV showing Explosive development at 14z-15z around the North/Central Midlands

[Arnie Pie]

28 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Been interesting watching this line build up for the last hour. 

It feels a little more potent out there today 

Closely watching the pop cells coming in from the W later on

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82wI8SGY0Jk

 

[ThomasD27]

Pretty sure I just heard thunder south of Selby; I'm timelapsing some dark clouds coming in

[Arnie Pie]

Still trying to the North over Barr Beacon way

[Sparkiee storm]

1 hour ago, Arnie Pie said:

It feels a little more potent out there today 

Closely watching the pop cells coming in from the W later on

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82wI8SGY0Jk

 

Yeah a few cells coming into our area now, very dark out west. The same as what's on your stream.

Edited March 18, 2023 by Sparkiee storm

[Metwatch]

Funnel cloud in dudley just now. 

[Arnie Pie]

15 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

Yeah a few cells coming into our area now, very dark out west.

Cell to the S us of has popped

 

Edited March 18, 2023 by Arnie Pie

[Sparkiee storm]

9 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Cell to the S us has popped

 

Hopefully the one we're watching will spark as its looking more potent on the latest radar return.

Also it's the most threatening looking skies since last year. 

Edited March 18, 2023 by Sparkiee storm

[JR319]

Rumble of thunder here in Leicester. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Proper bouncing it down here...

Edit,...HAIL!!!

Edited March 18, 2023 by Allseasons-si

[Sparkiee storm]

Just missed here, but sferics now near Leicester and still in the cell near Worcester which looks to be back building.

Edit - Now raining heavily as i typed this.

Edited March 18, 2023 by Sparkiee storm

[The Tall Weatherman]

The Leicester storm ! Looks very strong from 50 Miles away and seems to be organising on radar.

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Proper bouncing it down here...

Edit,...HAIL!!!

Yes skies to my north look very threatening indeed