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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards


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    Posted
  • Location: Congleton
  • Location: Congleton

    Easily the worst summer I've ever seen for storm activity...not only up here as last year we had nothing too, but for the whole country. Another dry, hot month forecasted too.

    I don't think we will ever get those thundery breakdowns we used to in the 90s anymore, you tend to get a very subtle cold front coming from the North West that cools things down a bit now rather than explosive storms. Something has changed definitely. Even when we have all the ingredients in place and storm warnings nothing still happens. What do we think is the reason?

    Id be happy for just a bit of rain at the moment. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, thunderstorms, mild & stormy winters
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight
    1 hour ago, Azuremoon2 said:

    Easily the worst summer I've ever seen for storm activity...not only up here as last year we had nothing too, but for the whole country. Another dry, hot month forecasted too.

    I don't think we will ever get those thundery breakdowns we used to in the 90s anymore, you tend to get a very subtle cold front coming from the North West that cools things down a bit now rather than explosive storms. Something has changed definitely. Even when we have all the ingredients in place and storm warnings nothing still happens. What do we think is the reason?

    Id be happy for just a bit of rain at the moment. 

    As with everything (including 40C temps in the UK and the current drought), Climate Change has to be the reason. Unless anyone has a better one!

    Edited by ResonantChannelThunder
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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    2 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

    As with everything (including 40C temps in the UK and the current drought), Climate Change has to be the reason. Unless anyone has a better one!

    Not sure if it’s to do with climate change.

    The last summer when storms were a given after a spell of hot weather was 2006.

    2007 was the first year I noticed storms becoming less frequent or not happening at all. 
     

    The cool summers of colder winters of 2008-13, which still had some hot weather in between the cool spells, produced very little in the way of storms. 
     

    While at that time, we were experiencing some of our coldest winter periods since 1985-87, 90/91 and 95/96(storms were more frequent during the latter years).

    It must have to do with something in the atmosphere. Maybe north westerlies have become stronger over the last 15 years, so the southern plumes, which used to bring storms to our shores, get pushed further east towards Germany and Eastern Europe.

    The mid and late 2010s had some stormy periods in the summer, 2013,14, 16,17, and 18 all had storms in the London region. 
     

    The past three years have been somewhat lacking in widespread storms. Still some time for summer 2022 to produce something, and you can’t write storms off until mid September.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brongest,Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy autumn, hot and sunny summer and thunderstorms all year round.
  • Location: Brongest,Wales

    Some latest GFS models are showing possibly thundery rain when the heat calms down a bit but the problem is most models just bring in cooler northwesterly's but without any rain.

    Really hope the GFS is on to something here as it will bring people the first proper period of thundery weather we have had so far this year but it will also bring much needed rain for many areas.

    If when this heat calms down it just gets cooler but doesn't produce any rain then I can see there being a lot of unhappy people not just from storm lovers like myself but also for most people because of hosepipe bans increasing and the landscape starting to really suffer. 

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    35 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

    Some latest GFS models are showing possibly thundery rain when the heat calms down a bit but the problem is most models just bring in cooler northwesterly's but without any rain.

    Really hope the GFS is on to something here as it will bring people the first proper period of thundery weather we have had so far this year but it will also bring much needed rain for many areas.

    If when this heat calms down it just gets cooler but doesn't produce any rain then I can see there being a lot of unhappy people not just from storm lovers like myself but also for most people because of hosepipe bans increasing and the landscape starting to really suffer. 

    Hopefully something develops in the second half of august. That usually brings storms.

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    Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
    10 hours ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

    As with everything (including 40C temps in the UK and the current drought), Climate Change has to be the reason. Unless anyone has a better one!

    2007-2012 was exceptionally bad. I did not recall a single decent night storm within any summer in all of those years above. I thought they had become a thing of the past until July 2013. I believe it’s luck of the draw in all honesty. The weather in this part of the world is like a lottery and unpredictable. I am thinking we aren’t done yet and we may see a significant uptick towards the end of august into September, with some perhaps very peculiar set ups. Given how warm the surrounding seas are, they could currently yield 18-19c dew points at the coast. Continuous high pressure I believe has been largely to blame so far, thus resulting in lack of CAPE and a non buoyant atmosphere. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    54 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

    2007-2012 was exceptionally bad. I did not recall a single decent night storm within any summer in all of those years above. I thought they had become a thing of the past until July 2013. I believe it’s luck of the draw in all honesty. The weather in this part of the world is like a lottery and unpredictable. I am thinking we aren’t done yet and we may see a significant uptick towards the end of august into September, with some perhaps very peculiar set ups. Given how warm the surrounding seas are, they could currently yield 18-19c dew points at the coast. Continuous high pressure I believe has been largely to blame so far, thus resulting in lack of CAPE and a non buoyant atmosphere. 

    Agreed @East_England_Stormchaser91 2007-2012 was appalling down my way for storms. It was so bad I wondered if we’d ever see a decent storm again. Then in 2013 we had an amazing year of storms - one of my photos was used by the BBC - which was an amazing anvil crawler over holiday caravans down in Dymchurch. I think I’m right in saying that period was dominated by La Niña, a bit like the current time, although thankfully we’ve not experienced a storm drought like that this time round. We certainly need this dry spell to end soon - it looks far more like Portugal than Kent/SE London all around, that’s for sure. And apparently from Chris Fawkes, it could be AT LEAST 2 weeks until we see any meaningful rain. The last time I saw anything like this was in 1996 (I think) when my brother and I had to get water from bowsers placed down our road because the taps had been turned off 😢

    Edited by Harry
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    Posted
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, thunderstorms, mild & stormy winters
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight

    ECM/GEM keep teasing plumes, but then pushing them eastwards on subsequent runs.

    I think the particularly weak Atlantic is a massive hinder this year. The below is a typical example of what we need for a classic-plume type scenario, where we've got a real 'suction' of uppers from Spain going on along with actual moisture and stronger fronts coming in from west of Ireland, but all we get this year is lows all the way up in Iceland or whatever, with a weak cold front and change of wind direction on their flank drifting slowly down, with slack lows then drifting erratically up towards Benelux and not containing the moisture and lift for organised thunderstorms even across the channel.

    image.thumb.png.f5280db39cb5ceb98af99c1ce1ad3ac6.png

     

    Edited by ResonantChannelThunder
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    Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

    Possible trends for after this roasting hot week for rain/showers/storms perhaps? Surely with all the energy in the air something's got to give............

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    In Corfu and have now heard thunder in Corfu where the Storms aren't supposed to move away from Albania, Storms like to go anywhere but the UK atm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, thunderstorms, mild & stormy winters
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight

    Some more favourable models emerging today. ECM in particular would bring at least one round of imports if it were to come off

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

    What is this greeny red stuff over parts the UK on Sunday?🤔 In all seriousness there are some early indications of a possible thundery breakdown next weekend as LP moves in. Too far for any details but will keep monitoring through the week.⛈🤞

    image.thumb.png.4c5ddc7f2cd458f2f44863d5820c397b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Denford
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather
  • Location: Denford

    Definitely some more agreement on the possibility of storms. NMM is showing some decent cape in central / Southern Wales and South England on Sunday night. Also an interesting thing to point out is a serious amount of cape around Guernsey and Jersey which if moved could put a big import moving across england. The ECM is perhaps turning interesting on Tuesday. These models probably are incorrect but at least there is a chance and possibility of storms following very hot wildfire weather.

    8A31F64B-418A-42A3-96CF-3350EBD8AC48.jpeg

    80400463-63A4-4E60-8A6D-03259FE10FD1.jpeg

    52E9F84B-8929-4B26-8949-45E4D78368E4.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    On 06/08/2022 at 11:26, ResonantChannelThunder said:

    As with everything (including 40C temps in the UK and the current drought), Climate Change has to be the reason. Unless anyone has a better one!

    The 40C is, in my opinion, definitely (and obviously) due to climate change. The blocked ‘same old’ weather pattern is not however, but a product of La Niña. In my relatively short life, La Niña cycles tend to be poor for storms in the UK where as El Niño cycles tend to be far better, as we tend to experience more transient weather patterns - ie cooler air replaced with warm and humid, back to cool, and so on. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
    14 minutes ago, Harry said:

    The 40C is, in my opinion, definitely (and obviously) due to climate change. The blocked ‘same old’ weather pattern is not however, but a product of La Niña. In my relatively short life, La Niña cycles tend to be poor for storms in the UK where as El Niño cycles tend to be far better, as we tend to experience more transient weather patterns - ie cooler air replaced with warm and humid, back to cool, and so on. 

    The increased frequency of blocked patterns is more likely to be climate change related.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, thunderstorms, mild & stormy winters
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight

    Various pulses of MUCAPE due at the weekend. One to keep an eye on

    image.thumb.png.8dcd3ef8dca00896e9eb4905844db7ae.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

    Things possibly turning to the more unsettled side through next week with showers/storms quite widely. Still early days yet but the signal is there.🤞

    image.thumb.png.4602dbc9c3b1db72647424959dcf090f.pngimage.thumb.png.9215b5eb96a60872fc2339fe26eba607.pngimage.thumb.png.c260a2ce5e2a7855b577b29457ac5ccf.pngimage.thumb.png.4843a6313c7b2cc11e1895ef87aa131c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
    10 minutes ago, A Face like Thunder said:

    Suggestion of thunderstorms in the SW on Saturday.

    Not a dead cert, more likely early Sunday if at all! I'm DJ at a party Saturday in a field so I'd rather there is no lightning or rain lol.....

    Edited by Mark Parsons
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    Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
    22 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

    Things possibly turning to the more unsettled side through next week with showers/storms quite widely. Still early days yet but the signal is there.🤞

    image.thumb.png.4602dbc9c3b1db72647424959dcf090f.pngimage.thumb.png.9215b5eb96a60872fc2339fe26eba607.pngimage.thumb.png.c260a2ce5e2a7855b577b29457ac5ccf.pngimage.thumb.png.4843a6313c7b2cc11e1895ef87aa131c.png

    Should mention that while showers/storms would be great they won't do much regarding the drought. There's of course the usual hit & miss nature of them but also with the ground being so dry there will be a significant run-off which would cause further issues of their own.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    CIN charts showing strong cap at the surface:

    2015413698_viewimage(1).thumb.png.645d64ac5e11169676f8400251f8ca55.png viewimage.thumb.png.fbffce15a770eac3650706b7e6f27467.png

    Maybe the potential for something elevated, other than that, nothing overly exciting.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Denford
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather
  • Location: Denford

    Monday based on some models is looking very promising across southern and central Britain. The NMM is showing 1000 cape quite widely as daytime heating gets going, also it does look like the cap won’t struggle. It’s early days but I just want to put out hope to the storm strarved people in the south.

    7B485118-3480-4695-B1FE-8C0D58A53789.jpeg

    94DCD54E-02CF-4997-8153-08597AC13994.jpeg

    AEA5DE8E-A248-4505-8B3B-C5AA7AD099CA.jpeg

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