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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards


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    Posted
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, thunderstorms, mild & stormy winters
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight
    2 hours ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

    Monday based on some models is looking very promising across southern and central Britain. The NMM is showing 1000 cape quite widely as daytime heating gets going, also it does look like the cap won’t struggle. It’s early days but I just want to put out hope to the storm strarved people in the south.

    7B485118-3480-4695-B1FE-8C0D58A53789.jpeg

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    AEA5DE8E-A248-4505-8B3B-C5AA7AD099CA.jpeg

    North or northwesterly flow too, correct? That'd put me in the game for homegrowns for once!

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    Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
    3 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

    North or northwesterly flow too, correct? That'd put me in the game for homegrowns for once!

    Hopefully I might get something though I'm further west

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    Posted
  • Location: Denford
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather
  • Location: Denford
    48 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

    North or northwesterly flow too, correct? That'd put me in the game for homegrowns for once!

    Depends if the cap brakes where you are, I think you might see something elevated if you get anything.

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, thunderstorms, mild & stormy winters
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight

    Chances of imports through Sat night into Sunday night now diminishing once again this year. The low slides just too far to the east on all models now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    16 hours ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

    Monday based on some models is looking very promising across southern and central Britain. The NMM is showing 1000 cape quite widely as daytime heating gets going, also it does look like the cap won’t struggle. It’s early days but I just want to put out hope to the storm strarved people in the south.

    7B485118-3480-4695-B1FE-8C0D58A53789.jpeg

    94DCD54E-02CF-4997-8153-08597AC13994.jpeg

    AEA5DE8E-A248-4505-8B3B-C5AA7AD099CA.jpeg

    The day and roughly the timing I land back in the UK, plus gotten hour and a half drive home (not driving obviously) from London to Kent that may be in the perfect area for a Storm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Moseley,Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and long, sunny summers
  • Location: Moseley,Birmingham

    Back from the us where i must of seen around 10x the amount of lightning that ive seen so far in the uk this year  😆

    Interesting GFS run with those CAPE values though, still a week away but worth keeping an eye on the potential for storms next week

    Edited by WeatherArc
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    Posted
  • Location: Denford
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather
  • Location: Denford

    Going to be very interesting on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF and NMM are showing some afternoon thunderstorms breaking out on Monday widely across the UK with Cape value’s perhaps surpassing <1000, along with that it looks like cap won’t struggle. Tuesday on the NMM is looking very interesting across the East and south England with the GFS showing <1200 cape across some southern areas and NMM showing 1500 cape in some eastern areas. Something to watch.

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    C0259929-885B-4DBD-850D-03D2286BC220.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, thunderstorms, mild & stormy winters
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight

    ^ Nice to see there should at least be more energy to play with than the 'breakdown' in July brought.

    From the model thread, it would seem there's a trend for the low early next week to sink towards Biscay, which could potentially make for an interesting week. Early stages still, but worth keeping an eye on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    1 hour ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

    ^ Nice to see there should at least be more energy to play with than the 'breakdown' in July brought.

    From the model thread, it would seem there's a trend for the low early next week to sink towards Biscay, which could potentially make for an interesting week. Early stages still, but worth keeping an eye on.

    Come back from Corfu on Monday as well (night be a bumpy ride around Mid day landing at Gatwick)

    In the meanwhile enjoying the planes,blue skies (capped atmosphere today, although that didn't stop the other Storms even in a dry area) and views on my trip and hoping for some Storms when I come back.

    20220810_124215198.thumb.jpg.59cf01240bce4bee7dc0537cadb9c784.jpg

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    20220810_130528499.thumb.jpg.79238ebbebb2fb879e003180e5d76c32.jpg

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Barrowby, (nr. Grantham) Sth Lincs (200ft ASL- ish)
  • Weather Preferences: The worse the better!
  • Location: Barrowby, (nr. Grantham) Sth Lincs (200ft ASL- ish)

    Due to life getting in the way, I haven't really been following any models as such, but have been keeping an eye on the 'Layman's' tools like XCWeather and Accuweather, or whatever it's called.

    I note a tiny, day on day, increase in max temps, very consistently, and [pro-forecast alert] AccuThingy has gone from "Thundershowers" to "Thunderstorms".

    I do have a gut feeling it may get a bit sparky, maybe late Monday...either that, or it's last nights curry...it's still early days.

    Also, is it just me that got a little emotional after seeing Eagle Eye's pics?

    I can't remember the last time I saw a nice sky Cauliflower.

    Edited by Gazarhya
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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, hail, lightning
  • Location: London
    51 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    Come back from Corfu on Monday as well (night be a bumpy ride around Mid day landing at Gatwick)

    In the meanwhile enjoying the planes,blue skies (capped atmosphere today, although that didn't stop the other Storms even in a dry area) and views on my trip and hoping for some Storms when I come back.

    20220810_124215198.thumb.jpg.59cf01240bce4bee7dc0537cadb9c784.jpg

    20220810_125705492.thumb.jpg.69fd3147fda4f273fff62e93d1b9798d.jpg

    20220810_130526810.thumb.jpg.4921ecf6b85f9b574ceec13662e2692f.jpg

    20220810_130528499.thumb.jpg.79238ebbebb2fb879e003180e5d76c32.jpg

     

     

    I went there too in the spring, very beautiful place.  Even in April we managed to get a loud thunderstorm!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m
  • Location: Chesterfield, Derbyshire, 110m

    I've heard one measly rumble of thunder this year so far, the worst since i joined Netweather and began counting back in 2012.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxfordshire/Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Oxfordshire/Bristol

    From what I've seen, models have been firming up on a few scattered thunderstorms from Monday-Wednesday. Airmass still warm, so probably a loaded gun setup with the risk of homegrown elevated storms overnight. At the moment N Wales, Peak District and up to the Lake District seems most at risk so far, but obviously a good 5 days out yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
    24 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    From what I've seen, models have been firming up on a few scattered thunderstorms from Monday-Wednesday. Airmass still warm, so probably a loaded gun setup with the risk of homegrown elevated storms overnight. At the moment N Wales, Peak District and up to the Lake District seems most at risk so far, but obviously a good 5 days out yet.

    This is not good, Benny Boy @Ben Sainsbury. We need some serious deluges across the south (I suspect the same down your way). Lake District doesn’t need it (I’m guessing). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Congleton
  • Location: Congleton
    5 hours ago, Harry said:

    This is not good, Benny Boy @Ben Sainsbury. We need some serious deluges across the south (I suspect the same down your way). Lake District doesn’t need it (I’m guessing). 

    well up my area of the north west we havnt had rain for nearly 3 weeks now and no storms for 2 years

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    The last meaningful rain I can recall were overnight storms on the 18 June - it has been an amazingly dry summer so far!

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxfordshire/Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Oxfordshire/Bristol

    Good model consistency now for more widespread thundery activity Monday/Tuesday than there was a few days ago. Relatively large magnitude of instability forecast on majority of the models.

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

    A few snaps for Monday from the UKV, looking good, even a few storms for the SE. A few days still to go though so not to be taken as gospel. 

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    image.thumb.png.086b31d88a7811c3ce0511a9577c39a5.png

    Edited by Sparkiee storm
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    6 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

    A few snaps for Monday from the UKV, looking good, even a few storms for the SE. A few days still to go though so not to be taken as gospel. 

    image.thumb.png.fd57920bab4abc80eb9728705c8cfde1.png

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    image.thumb.png.086b31d88a7811c3ce0511a9577c39a5.png

    Lets hope this is on the money as after 2 exceptional heatwaves and a prolonged dry spell there must be some convective activity....come on !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
    17 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    Lets hope this is on the money as after 2 exceptional heatwaves and a prolonged dry spell there must be some convective activity....come on !!

    This event is looking more likely of producing something more than the July event, so that's something to be a little hopeful of at this stage 🙂 ⛈️

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

    It is also looking, particularly from the second half of the weekend, much more humid feeling than other heatwaves this year 🥵

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    Posted
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfriesshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, high winds and snow
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfriesshire
    On 09/08/2022 at 12:57, The Tall Weatherman said:

    Monday based on some models is looking very promising across southern and central Britain. The NMM is showing 1000 cape quite widely as daytime heating gets going, also it does look like the cap won’t struggle. It’s early days but I just want to put out hope to the storm strarved people in the south.

    7B485118-3480-4695-B1FE-8C0D58A53789.jpeg

    94DCD54E-02CF-4997-8153-08597AC13994.jpeg

    AEA5DE8E-A248-4505-8B3B-C5AA7AD099CA.jpeg


    Any good news for the storm starved folk in Southern Scotland? Getting to the stage of no hope left ☹️

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