Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

[ChannelThunder]

2 hours ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Monday based on some models is looking very promising across southern and central Britain. The NMM is showing 1000 cape quite widely as daytime heating gets going, also it does look like the cap won’t struggle. It’s early days but I just want to put out hope to the storm strarved people in the south.

North or northwesterly flow too, correct? That'd put me in the game for homegrowns for once!

[camturbo]

3 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

North or northwesterly flow too, correct? That'd put me in the game for homegrowns for once!

Hopefully I might get something though I'm further west

[The Tall Weatherman]

48 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

North or northwesterly flow too, correct? That'd put me in the game for homegrowns for once!

Depends if the cap brakes where you are, I think you might see something elevated if you get anything.

[ChannelThunder]

Chances of imports through Sat night into Sunday night now diminishing once again this year. The low slides just too far to the east on all models now.

[A Face like Thunder]

Sarah K-L now suggesting heavy and thundery showers on Sunday into Monday.

[It's a Philcast]

Saw this from NorthWorcs this evening poss developing over Oxfordshire way.

[Eagle Eye]

16 hours ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

Monday based on some models is looking very promising across southern and central Britain. The NMM is showing 1000 cape quite widely as daytime heating gets going, also it does look like the cap won’t struggle. It’s early days but I just want to put out hope to the storm strarved people in the south.

The day and roughly the timing I land back in the UK, plus gotten hour and a half drive home (not driving obviously) from London to Kent that may be in the perfect area for a Storm.

[WeatherArc]

Back from the us where i must of seen around 10x the amount of lightning that ive seen so far in the uk this year  

Interesting GFS run with those CAPE values though, still a week away but worth keeping an eye on the potential for storms next week

Edited August 10, 2022 by WeatherArc

[Eagle Eye]

There comes a point where even Corfu is Stormier than the UK, not meant to be a 'Storm chasing holiday' but it's ended up being one.

A Stormy 9 or so days so far in Corfu

Vs the average 'Very Stormy month' in the UK, especially the Midlands .

 

[The Tall Weatherman]

Going to be very interesting on Monday and Tuesday. ECMWF and NMM are showing some afternoon thunderstorms breaking out on Monday widely across the UK with Cape value’s perhaps surpassing <1000, along with that it looks like cap won’t struggle. Tuesday on the NMM is looking very interesting across the East and south England with the GFS showing <1200 cape across some southern areas and NMM showing 1500 cape in some eastern areas. Something to watch.

[ChannelThunder]

^ Nice to see there should at least be more energy to play with than the 'breakdown' in July brought.

From the model thread, it would seem there's a trend for the low early next week to sink towards Biscay, which could potentially make for an interesting week. Early stages still, but worth keeping an eye on.

[Eagle Eye]

1 hour ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

^ Nice to see there should at least be more energy to play with than the 'breakdown' in July brought.

From the model thread, it would seem there's a trend for the low early next week to sink towards Biscay, which could potentially make for an interesting week. Early stages still, but worth keeping an eye on.

Come back from Corfu on Monday as well (night be a bumpy ride around Mid day landing at Gatwick)

In the meanwhile enjoying the planes,blue skies (capped atmosphere today, although that didn't stop the other Storms even in a dry area) and views on my trip and hoping for some Storms when I come back.

 

 

[Gazarhya]

Due to life getting in the way, I haven't really been following any models as such, but have been keeping an eye on the 'Layman's' tools like XCWeather and Accuweather, or whatever it's called.

I note a tiny, day on day, increase in max temps, very consistently, and [pro-forecast alert] AccuThingy has gone from "Thundershowers" to "Thunderstorms".

I do have a gut feeling it may get a bit sparky, maybe late Monday...either that, or it's last nights curry...it's still early days.

Also, is it just me that got a little emotional after seeing Eagle Eye's pics?

I can't remember the last time I saw a nice sky Cauliflower.

Edited August 10, 2022 by Gazarhya

[Tamsin]

51 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Come back from Corfu on Monday as well (night be a bumpy ride around Mid day landing at Gatwick)

In the meanwhile enjoying the planes,blue skies (capped atmosphere today, although that didn't stop the other Storms even in a dry area) and views on my trip and hoping for some Storms when I come back.

 

 

I went there too in the spring, very beautiful place.  Even in April we managed to get a loud thunderstorm!

[ChezWeather]

I've heard one measly rumble of thunder this year so far, the worst since i joined Netweather and began counting back in 2012.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

From what I've seen, models have been firming up on a few scattered thunderstorms from Monday-Wednesday. Airmass still warm, so probably a loaded gun setup with the risk of homegrown elevated storms overnight. At the moment N Wales, Peak District and up to the Lake District seems most at risk so far, but obviously a good 5 days out yet.

[Harry]

24 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

From what I've seen, models have been firming up on a few scattered thunderstorms from Monday-Wednesday. Airmass still warm, so probably a loaded gun setup with the risk of homegrown elevated storms overnight. At the moment N Wales, Peak District and up to the Lake District seems most at risk so far, but obviously a good 5 days out yet.

This is not good, Benny Boy @Ben Sainsbury. We need some serious deluges across the south (I suspect the same down your way). Lake District doesn’t need it (I’m guessing). 

[Turquoise]

5 hours ago, Harry said:

This is not good, Benny Boy @Ben Sainsbury. We need some serious deluges across the south (I suspect the same down your way). Lake District doesn’t need it (I’m guessing). 

well up my area of the north west we havnt had rain for nearly 3 weeks now and no storms for 2 years

[Harry]

The last meaningful rain I can recall were overnight storms on the 18 June - it has been an amazingly dry summer so far!

[Ben Sainsbury]

Good model consistency now for more widespread thundery activity Monday/Tuesday than there was a few days ago. Relatively large magnitude of instability forecast on majority of the models.

Edited August 11, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[Sparkiee storm]

A few snaps for Monday from the UKV, looking good, even a few storms for the SE. A few days still to go though so not to be taken as gospel. 

Edited August 11, 2022 by Sparkiee storm

[minus10]

6 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

A few snaps for Monday from the UKV, looking good, even a few storms for the SE. A few days still to go though so not to be taken as gospel. 

Lets hope this is on the money as after 2 exceptional heatwaves and a prolonged dry spell there must be some convective activity....come on !!

[Sparkiee storm]

17 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Lets hope this is on the money as after 2 exceptional heatwaves and a prolonged dry spell there must be some convective activity....come on !!

This event is looking more likely of producing something more than the July event, so that's something to be a little hopeful of at this stage  

[Harry]

It is also looking, particularly from the second half of the weekend, much more humid feeling than other heatwaves this year

[Tempest]

On 09/08/2022 at 12:57, The Tall Weatherman said:

Monday based on some models is looking very promising across southern and central Britain. The NMM is showing 1000 cape quite widely as daytime heating gets going, also it does look like the cap won’t struggle. It’s early days but I just want to put out hope to the storm strarved people in the south.

Any good news for the storm starved folk in Southern Scotland? Getting to the stage of no hope left