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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards


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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

    be interesting to hear what dan thinks of this

    over on the model thread its been pointed out that UKV follows the UKM model, and the GFS/ECM have produced less unstable outcomes. 

     

    lets see what happens on this.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Marginal instability showing for here on the GFS for Monday, but also a strong cap. Much better for those further inland though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfriesshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, high winds and snow
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfriesshire
    9 hours ago, The Tall Weatherman said:

    @Tempest Depends if the cap brakes on Monday, the storms may struggle to lift off where you are.

    Ahh well, I’ll just have to cross my fingers 🥺

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    Posted
  • Location: Moseley,Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and long, sunny summers
  • Location: Moseley,Birmingham

    Some Interesting soundings from the GFS 18z run for tuesday showing a MRGL tornado risk with around 900 j/kg of cape for East Anglia alongside supercell composites of 4. While we are still 4 days away there is the possibility of a few strong storms for both monday and tuesday across central and southern England.

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    Edited by WeatherArc
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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Heatwaves, thunderstorms, cold/snowy spells.
  • Location: Walsall, West Midlands 135m/442ft ASL

    UKV 03z remains with the storm theme and even amps up the activity a little more, with things starting to destabilise on Sunday afternoon/evening with scattered showers/thunderstorms breaking out over England/East Wales and more so Scotland, NW England gets a chance overnight Sunday, Then Monday looks very interesting with potentially intense thunderstorms over England of Wales and that risk then remains until overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, by this time most of the country has seen rain, including the SE. Still not to be taken literally though, but the theme seems good enough to be confident that thunderstorms and intense downpours will develop.

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    Edited by Sparkiee storm
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    Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

    Morning o’fellow storm starved folk of Netweather, I see that the U.K. Meto has just issued a thunderstorm warning for Monday! 🌩⛈🙏🏻
     

    Obviously it’s a long way off, but it’s an encouraging start. 🥵👍🏻

    89A2F8DF-D47D-4284-8531-98588287A075.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Just now, Mapantz said:

    I never find a MetOffice thunderstorm warning encouraging lol

    Me neither. And a BBC one even less!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level

    well blow me, i've got a yellow for thunder on Monday, so guess that won't happen!

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    39 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

    Morning o’fellow storm starved folk of Netweather, I see that the U.K. Meto has just issued a thunderstorm warning for Monday! 🌩⛈🙏🏻
     

    Obviously it’s a long way off, but it’s an encouraging start. 🥵👍🏻

    89A2F8DF-D47D-4284-8531-98588287A075.png

    Certainly not encouraging for the south east ...no warning as usual...😡

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    39 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:

    Morning o’fellow storm starved folk of Netweather, I see that the U.K. Meto has just issued a thunderstorm warning for Monday! 🌩⛈🙏🏻
     

    Obviously it’s a long way off, but it’s an encouraging start. 🥵👍🏻

    89A2F8DF-D47D-4284-8531-98588287A075.png

    I'm not in it apparently (when I land back at Gatwick anyway) so thats a nailed on Storm for me then 🤣

    2 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    Certainly not encouraging for the south east ...no warning as usual...😡

    I'd argue that's quite encouraging based off previous events 

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    Posted
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
  • Location: Barnehurst nr Bexleyheath, Kent
    19 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    Certainly not encouraging for the south east ...no warning as usual...😡

    I wouldn't worry, a MET Office warning is usually the kiss of death for anything to actually happen.  Plus Monday is a few days away and always subject to change.

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    Posted
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are
  • Location: martock,somerset where some tractors are

    Let's just see nearer the time and see what Dan says or if estofex get on board or indeed looking out the window on the day

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    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
    3 hours ago, snow raven said:

    I wouldn't worry, a MET Office warning is usually the kiss of death for anything to actually happen.  Plus Monday is a few days away and always subject to change.

    Hi Leeanne,

    And if those wildfires break out over your way again, as they did the other Evening. Do you think you could extinguish the flames, before they make it over to Lee, on that East.wind.

    Cheers,

    Tom. 👍 

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    Posted
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, thunderstorms, mild & stormy winters
  • Location: Thorley, Isle of Wight

    Not sure how much to trust the UKV given it has storms spreading in from the southwest from the secondary low on Tues night, whereas other models are already removing unstable conditions away from the east at that point with a northerly fetch. I suspect the 15z run may show something completely different.

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    Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF
    17 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:

    Not sure how much to trust the UKV given it has storms spreading in from the southwest from the secondary low on Tues night, whereas other models are already removing unstable conditions away from the east at that point with a northerly fetch. I suspect the 15z run may show something completely different.

    You have a point lance, regarding sun eve/night, i think it will be a northern event, and the daytime monday will be england/wales, as according to met office warning the storms will clear during the eve/night hours on monday night, 

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxfordshire/Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Oxfordshire/Bristol

    Due to the highly unstable and relatively moist atmopshere, storms could pop up almost anywhere from Sunday night to Tuesday night in my opinion. Just have to hope any crud from elevated thunderstorms doesn't inhibit any strong/severe convection the following day.

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
    Removing empty space under post
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Due to the highly unstable and relatively moist atmopshere, storms could pop up almost anywhere from Sunday night to Tuesday night in my opinion. Just have to hope any crud from elevated thunderstorms doesn't inhibit any strong/severe convection the following day.

    From my perspective, Ben, we need rain. And I really couldn't care less whether its source is elevated or not!😁

     

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
    Removing empty space under post
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    Posted
  • Location: Denford
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather
  • Location: Denford

    Starting to get real intriguing for Monday and Tuesday based on the new 12z runs. Definitely room for change but the situation is definitely getting closer. Monday looking like a big day with (<2000) cape building across central and northern Wales moving east as the day goes on, the storms might become organised for a time as the afternoon ends around parts of central/western England . The storms should rumble away by Tuesday morning and quickly during the morning hours (<2000) cape should interact with the very warm and humid, perhaps sheared environment. Central south England and eastern England should see the strongest storms of day but widely across England scattered storm can be expected. 

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