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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards


Supacell

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

A cell and an sfefic in N Wales 🙂

 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Seems like a cumulus field developing to my S, where the sea breezes are converging. Stifling hot here now. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow during Winter, Thunder during Summer.
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.

3 cells over North Wales, devloped rarther quick on radar. Current NwX image:

 

1415 r.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow during Winter, Thunder during Summer.
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.

Just to add, this fella going nuts or enjoying the view? From a glider!

 

glider.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Nr. Caernarfon, NW Wales.
  • Location: Nr. Caernarfon, NW Wales.

Ive added some HDR effects to the pic below taken just now, so that you can see the clouds well as they are quite far away.

20220814_142704-01.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow during Winter, Thunder during Summer.
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.

And plenty of sferics detected now on blitz

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
55 minutes ago, viking_smb said:

estofex havent released a forecast

They don't release a forecast unless somewhere in Europe is level 1 or above so we may never know their thoughts about any of the days theoretically because they very rarely issue level 1's for the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Foggy autumn days are the best! Although I does enjoy a good thunderstorm.
  • Location: Mynydd - Isa , Nr Mold - North Wales

We have ignition over south western Snowdonia!! 🌩⛈🥳

Too far west for me today… But it’s an encouraging sign! 🌩⛈🙏🏻🙌🏻

F0A0450B-98D8-4651-B3B3-5217F88A22CD.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow during Winter, Thunder during Summer.
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.
2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

They don't release a forecast unless somewhere in Europe is level 1 or above so we may never know their thoughts about any of the days theoretically because they very rarely issue level 1's for the UK.

Ill beg to differ! Take a look at the archive it goes back to the year 2002, it may take you a few hours to do.

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, high teens to low 20's,sunny and convective
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset.
8 minutes ago, LeeKay/ said:

Ill beg to differ! Take a look at the archive it goes back to the year 2002, it may take you a few hours to do.

Is it not run by volunteers ? Maybe there is no one available to do a forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
12 minutes ago, LeeKay/ said:

Ill beg to differ! Take a look at the archive it goes back to the year 2002, it may take you a few hours to do.

Yes but it does need to be significant for then to issue one here, I think, probably just selective memory.

Anyway, they might issue one tomorrow, Tuesday or Wednesday they do like to issue them on the day when the models are better especially when they're lower end events such as this one.

4 minutes ago, AnvilCrawlers said:

Is it not run by volunteers ? Maybe there is no one available to do a forecast.

They did one yesterday but I did notice they went a week without issuing one where there was a lot of events so I suppose so...

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Posted
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow during Winter, Thunder during Summer.
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.

Yes, hence no updates. Oscar still has his forecast site running.

Over the past years, plenty of level 1 or 2 or even 3 gave out on estofex for the uk

 

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Now perhaps just kicking off a tad more maybe northern england showers perhaps brewing erupting getting heavier maybe it all begins now

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Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
1 minute ago, LeeKay/ said:

Yes, hence no updates. Oscar still has his forecast site running.

Over the past years, plenty of level 1 or 2 or even 3 gave out on estofex for the uk

 

I suppose

I would think that they would issue one for this event with such dry ground, flooding is a potential issue but they haven't issued one yet so I was just guessing without actually looking into it.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Seabreeze convergence zone  seting up around here soon so I wonder if that can kick anything off.

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Posted
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow during Winter, Thunder during Summer.
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.
Just now, Eagle Eye said:

I suppose

I would think that they would issue one for this event with such dry ground, flooding is a potential issue but they haven't issued one yet so I was just guessing without actually looking into it.

Not being rude or nothing, you are young into this are you not? The storms that have come and gone in the past 30 years i have seen, have been amazing, im 47 now

So shouting about estofex (Yes they do this for no pay) level's is kind of new to you? (did you view the archive? is so that was fast!)

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

ESTOFEX have a very talented bunch of forecasters, but imo I don't feel they pay much attention to the UK. Regardless, It's just clear they're too busy at the moment to issue a forecast for Europe as they're voluntary.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow during Winter, Thunder during Summer.
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.
14 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

ESTOFEX have a very talented bunch of forecasters, but imo I don't feel they pay much attention to the UK. Regardless, It's just clear they're too busy at the moment to issue a forecast for Europe as they're voluntary.

pretty much what i said above

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow during Winter, Thunder during Summer.
  • Location: Cheslyn Hay, South Staffs.
2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Yes I am young in this which is why I tend to agree with what people had to say about ESTOFEX in the past because I have no reason to believe not to and its a running 'joke' as it were that they only cared about continental Europe so I just assumed they did because I never really saw them give many warnings for the UK except for a couple times and that was mainly for wind events and squall lines.

Yes I am new to this but I'm not shouting about ESTOFEX in what I believe but what I've heard time and time again (sometimes on this forum to note) about them, personally, I love them and they're my go to for when Europen gets Storms but because I haven't been here (as in here and looking at their warnings) when there's been a big Storm event , I haven't really seen them do too much for the UK but whenever there's a Storm event with similar properties over France and Germany it does seem that they pay extra attention to them and that's okay with me.

I know they have issued a lot before but I haven't seen many of them and sometimes when I think one is warranted because there's a potential hail event possible they haven't given anything but then again, sometimes they have when I don't think one is warranted.

I think this just proves I'm wrong most of the time (although my own European forecasting has actually had success I go to EDTOFEX to have a look at the areas and the size of the event then I look at the models to try and get as exact details as I can it makes me look good when I'm not ha ha).

Anyway, that's all for now because I've got to go and have a shower.

Did you see the archive?

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