Does the possibility of a cold winter this year worry you?

[Eskimo]

We'll cope between me and my partner as we have decent-paying jobs (at least to me they are). We don't have children and we don't have a particularly high mortgage (for now) as we saved hard for years to get a 20% stake in the house. My partner works afield so stays in hotels so there's only me at home most of the time so energy consumption is about as low as it can be. 

I do genuinely feel for those that will struggle significantly. Particularly older people with pittance-pensions, vulnerable people and young families - if they struggle then we will all struggle. The knock-on effects of low spending and hunkering down will cause further problems to our economy down the line. 

Edited August 30, 2022 by Eskimo

[Moomin71]

Yes it does worry me, we should be OK as I am in a good job etc but we are still already paying more than double that we were paying last year, whilst we can take that hit there are many who cant and it will mean we wont spend the money on extra stuff or simple things like going to Aldi rather than the farm shop.  its these impacts that just is not being discussed in the press as well as the impact on SMEs Of these very high energy costs, unless whoever the new PM is actually gets hold of this and does something very significant then I do worry for all of us what impact it will have on the economy and society, i am usually a very positive person but at the moment the prospects for this winter are looking pretty grim.

[damianslaw]

Wonder if government action may be influenced by sneak previews of winter forecasts.. the more significant the action - perhaps an indication these pointing to a particular harsh season.. someone will be factoring in the weather within risk assessment and worse case scenario testing... will be mixed in with health impact testing..

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Moomin71 said:

Yes it does worry me, we should be OK as I am in a good job etc but we are still already paying more than double that we were paying last year, whilst we can take that hit there are many who cant and it will mean we wont spend the money on extra stuff or simple things like going to Aldi rather than the farm shop.  its these impacts that just is not being discussed in the press as well as the impact on SMEs Of these very high energy costs, unless whoever the new PM is actually gets hold of this and does something very significant then I do worry for all of us what impact it will have on the economy and society, i am usually a very positive person but at the moment the prospects for this winter are looking pretty grim.

Its bigger knock on implications, whilsr some may be able to cushion effect it will be the expense of other things and will inevitably hit the economy as a whole.. as you say, less spending on leisure, food, entertainment, fuel, commercial goods etc. 

[mistyqueen]

As a silver haired hag on a measly civil service pension, yes I'm concerned. I'd love to see a few snowy days up here but all we usually get is some sleet and howling gales. I wouldn't mind a mildish winter just to save using the heating oil, but my log shed is full as is the coal bunker. If it gets mega cold I doubt I'd be able to keep the heating on too long, and as for the price of coal, well, lets just say intead of ordering 5 bags I'll just be ordering 2! Thermals will be the order of the day, and warm blankies to snuggle under on the sofa. I won't freeze but I just have to be very frugal with what I already have. 

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, mistyqueen said:

As a silver haired hag on a measly civil service pension, yes I'm concerned. I'd love to see a few snowy days up here but all we usually get is some sleet and howling gales. I wouldn't mind a mildish winter just to save using the heating oil, but my log shed is full as is the coal bunker. If it gets mega cold I doubt I'd be able to keep the heating on too long, and as for the price of coal, well, lets just say intead of ordering 5 bags I'll just be ordering 2! Thermals will be the order of the day, and warm blankies to snuggle under on the sofa. I won't freeze but I just have to be very frugal with what I already have. 

It could be regression time, MQ?  

[mistyqueen]

18 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

It could be regression time, MQ?  

[Storm Force]

Doesn't bother me.  It will get to the point that no one will be able to pay.  Are they going to cut us all off.  Don't forget those working for the energy providers will not be able to pay.

 

Never mind, if you come across the Channel in a small boat, you will get 4 star accommodation, 3 meals a day, health care, mobile phone ect.

 

Disgraceful

 

[Rollo]

All my life I have wanted cold cold severe winters but this year with the cost of heating spiralling out of control I wish the opposite but as others have said Sod’s law will probably occur. Being pensioners it is a great worry.

[josh-weather]

On 02/09/2022 at 08:25, Storm Force said:

Never mind, if you come across the Channel in a small boat, you will get 4 star accommodation, 3 meals a day, health care, mobile phone ect.

 

Disgraceful

 

You may have seen this meme before. Suffice it to say - it's not poor people in boats taking anything from us.

 

But, to the topic - for myself I'm not hugely worried but I think this will be a really tough winter even with mild weather, unless drastic action is taken. Small businesses will go bust leaving people unemployed right as the energy crisis bites hardest. Cold weather will make all that worse.

Weather wise it's a depressing fact as usually I am the biggest coldie ever and love the prospect of a good blizzard. I'll be fine with the bills... as long as the economy doesn't collapse and leave me without an income

Edited September 4, 2022 by josh-weather
added a proper response

[Sunny76]

It does feel like we are heading for a cold winter, and if mass unemployment, lack of spending all happen at once, we are in for a very bumpy ride. 

Someone needs to dust off The Specials Ghost Town, or Eddy Grant's Electric Avenue. 

Civil unrest will be a given.

[Don]

9 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

It does feel like we are heading for a cold winter, and if mass unemployment, lack of spending all happen at once, we are in for a very bumpy ride. 

Someone needs to dust off The Specials Ghost Town, or Eddy Grant's Electric Avenue. 

Civil unrest will be a given.

At this very early stage, current background signals are possibly pointing towards a mild and stormy winter (check out the ENSO thread).  Some long range charts have shades of 2013/14 about them, which would be good for saving energy but not good for those living in low lying areas or close to rivers!!  However, as I said, very earlier with the chance of cold zonality if a strong jet tracks further south this winter.

Edited September 4, 2022 by Don

[Alexis]

I'm fixed until June 2023. I'm more concerned about a cold summer at the moment!

1 minute ago, Don said:

At this very early stage, current background signals are possibly pointing towards a mild and stormy winter (check out the ENSO thread).  Some long range charts have shades of 2013/14 about them, which would be good for saving energy but not good for those living in low lying areas and close to rivers!!  However, as I said, very earlier with the chance of cold zonality if a strong jet tracks further south this winter.

Weren't these same background signals pointing to an extremely mediocre summer back in the spring?

[Don]

1 minute ago, Alexis said:

I'm fixed until June 2023. I'm more concerned about a cold summer at the moment!

Weren't these same background signals pointing to an extremely mediocre summer back in the spring?

Possibly but a hot summer is far easier to achieve than a cold winter these days, where 'everything' has to fall into place and even when it does, it can fail to materialise.  SSW's seem to be the key for half decent chances of sustained cold these days.  However, like I said, very early days.....

[Daniel*]

The only thing to look forward to (personal preference, don’t hurt me).. couldn’t stomach a mild/stormy winter. The energy bills will be high regardless a mild winter is still cold for inside comfort.

[jellybaby1969]

Not that concerned as it looks like another La Nina based winter....above average temps and a fairly active west to east jet stream blowing into europe.

[Beanz]

I am less worried about the short term price of energy than I am about the impact that climate change is having on our weather.  Rather ironic that the cause of using too much fossil fuel has lead to us requiring to use less…

I’d much rather have an average winter this year.  Some snow, plenty of frosts and ice, unlikely though 
 

 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Yes will be very worried in years to come when Winters will be much colder than They are now , and energy will be unaffordable!  Probably have to resort to burning the furniture

[damianslaw]

Wouldn't be surprised to experience a freak exceptionally cold winter not before long, against the background warming, to make us think..what's gping on.. a bit like Dec 10, but will be the exception. 

[CongletonHeat]

Everyone should be extremely worried, it isn't just about paying your bills this winter, all the money the government has to pay out to subsidise bills will have to be paid for by cuts or tax rises so obviously the colder the winter the more cuts or tax rises there will be.

[Beanz]

4 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Yes will be very worried in years to come when Winters will be much colder than They are now , and energy will be unaffordable!  Probably have to resort to burning the furniture

It’s a relief to know that energy prices are forecast to decrease (ignoring even the current spike) over the next 2 decades.  

[The real Lomond snowstorm]

I fixed my energy costs for two years, about a year ago, so I am paying significantly less than the price cap.

And the mild weather means my energy cost last month was less than the £66/month Govt subsidy so I actually got my energy for free.

This will change as the winter arrives of course and no doubt if it stays high for winter 2023/2024 I will have a severe price hike but at the moment things are fine.

[Polar Maritime]

13 minutes ago, The real Lomond snowstorm said:

I fixed my energy costs for two years, about a year ago, so I am paying significantly less than the price cap.

And the mild weather means my energy cost last month was less than the £66/month Govt subsidy so I actually got my energy for free.

This will change as the winter arrives of course and no doubt if it stays high for winter 2023/2024 I will have a severe price hike but at the moment things are fine.

I can only take that as you don't have gas like myself and rely on pre-paid heating oil? £400 in credit with electric and have 1300 ltr of oil which will do all the cooking/heating and hot water over the winter and soon an extra £100 on top of the £400 from government because we are not on Gas. Currently pay £21 a month...

[The real Lomond snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

I can only take that as you don't have gas like myself and rely on pre-paid heating oil? £400 in credit with electric and have 1300 ltr of oil which will do all the cooking/heating and hot water over the winter and soon an extra £100 on top of the £400 from government because we are not on Gas. Currently pay £21 a month...

No, I have gas heating. My combined gas and electric bill for my semi detached house was £60 last month.

The govt subsidy per month is £66 so I was actually paid £6 for using my energy.

[Polar Maritime]

6 minutes ago, The real Lomond snowstorm said:

No, I have gas heating. My combined gas and electric bill for my semi detached house was £60 last month.

The govt subsidy per month is £66 so I was actually paid £6 for using my energy.

That's brilliant