September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

12.9C and 95.2mm please 

[J.P.]

My first post! A shot in the dark slightly milder than average so 14.6c and quite wet

[jonboy]

15.0 c and 60.1mm of rain please

[mulzy]

15.0C and 75mm please

[Freeze]

14.2c and 76mm.

[Federico]

14.2C and 85 mm.

[Mr Maunder]

14.5c and 87mm please.

 

MM

[Summer Sun]

I'll go for 14.3c please

[I remember Atlantic 252]

14.8C , 118mm, wet first week, wet last week

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I think I’ll go with 14.7c with 61.5mm rainfall.

Should be an interesting month with a more active than normal hurricane season in the Atlantic!

[seaside 60]

15.3c

65mm

Please.

[davehsug]

14.3C & 115mm please.

[damianslaw]

Tricky month to forecast as I expect the atlantic and tropical storms to mix things up and keep us on our toes. A much less warm month relative to recent months but still warmer than average. 14.9 degrees. Could be a wet month.

[Guest]

15.9C and 73mm please.

Edited August 31, 2022 by Guest

[Don]

14.8C and 77mm, please.

 

[February1978]

15.1c and 83mm please

[Roger J Smith]

Table of forecasts for September 2022

 

 

CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry) ___ CET _ EWP _ Forecaster (order of entry)

17.0 _ 40.0 _ Earthshine ( 1 ) _______________ 14.9 _ 86.0 _ SteveB ( 9 )

16.5 _ 88.0 _ shillitocettwo ( 15 ) ___________ 14.9 _ 72.7 _ Roger J Smith ( 18 )

15.9 _ 73.0 _ Tidal Wave ( 50 ) ______________ 14.9 _ 99.0 _ weather-history ( 35 )

15.8 _ 60.0 _ Ed Stone ( 19 ) ________________ 14.9 _ -- -- __ Mark Bayley ( 30 )

_____________________________________________ 14.9 _ -- -- __ damianslaw ( 49 )

15.8 _65.0 _ syed2878 ( 28 ) ________________ 14.8 _118.0_ I Rem Atl 252 ( 45 )

15.6 _ 61.0 _ rwtwm ( 17 ) __________________ 14.8 _ 77.0 _ Don ( 51 )

_____________________________________________ 14.8 _ 69.0 _ Midlands Ice Age ( L1-3 )

15.5 _ -- -- __ Stretford End ( 12 ) ___________ 14.7 _ 80.0 _ summer blizzard ( 7 ) 

15.5 _ 72.0 _ Summer18 ( 13 ) ______________14.7 _ 66.0 _ Godber 1 ( 20 )   

_____________________________________________ 14.7 _ 61.5 _ prolongedSnowLover ( 46 )

_____________________________________________ 14.7 _ 90.0 _ J10 ( L1-5 )

15.5 _ -- -- __ richie3846 ( 14 ) ______________ 14.6 _ 67.0 _ Reef ( 27 )

15.5 _ -- -- _ DiagonalRedLine ( 16 ) ________ 14.6 _ -- -- _ J.P.  ( 38 )

15.5 _ 60.0 _ The PIT ( 23 ) _________________ 14.5 _110.0_ Neil N ( 3 )  

15.4 _ 90.0 _ Weather Enthusiast91 ( 4 ) ___ 14.5 _ 85.0 _ DR(S)NO ( 21 ) 

15.3 _ 40.2 _ Polar Gael ( 10 ) ______________ 14.5 _ 90.0 _ Stationary Front ( 31 )

15.3 _ 65.0 _ seaside60 ( 47 ) _______________ 14.5 _ 57.0 _ stargazer ( 36 )

______________________________________________14.5 _ 87.0 _ Mr Maunder ( 43 )

15.2 _ 77.0 _ Emmett Garland ( 34 ) ________ 14.4 _ -- -- _ Walsall Wood Snow (32)

15.2 _ 81.0 _ Feb1991Blizzard ( 26 ) ________ 14.4 _110.0_  Frigid (33)

_____________________________________________ 14.3 _ -- -- __ Summer Sun ( 44 )

15.1 _ 62.0 _ dancerwithwings ( 5 ) _________ 14.3 _115.0_ davehsug ( 48 ) 

15.1 _ 63.0 _ Wold Topper ( 24 ) ____________ 14.2 _ 76.0 _ freeze (41) 

15.1 _ 83.0 _ February1978 ( 52 ) ____________14.2 _ 85.0 _ Federico ( 42 )

15.1 _109.0_ noname_weather ( L1-1 ) _____ 14.2 _ 76.0 _ average 1991-2020 (76.1 mm _ 1992-2021)

______________________________________________14.2 _ 76.0 _ daniel* ( L1-6 )

15.0 _ 78.0 _ Bobd29 ( 2 ) ___________________ 14.1 _ 82.5 _ Weather26 ( 8 )

15.0 _ 85.0 _ summer8906 (25) _____________ 14.1 _ 79.0 _ SLEETY ( 11 )

15.0 _ 68.0 _ sunny_vale (29) ________________ 14.1 _ 63.0 _ virtualsphere ( 22 )

______________________________________________ 14.1 _ -- -- _ Mark Smithy ( L1-2 )

15.0 _ 60.1 _ Jonboy ( 39 ) ___________________ 14.0 _ 77.2 _ average 1981-2010

_______________________________________________14.0 _ -- -- _ Kentish Man ( L1-4 )

15.0 _ 75.0 _ Mulzy (40) _____________________ 13.7 _ 75.0 _ snowray ( 6 )

14.9 _ 76.5 _ consensus ____________________ 12.9 _ 95.2 _ Kirkcaldy Weather ( 37 )

52 on time forecasts to 0300h 1st and 6 late by one day (58 total) to 0345h 2nd

ENTRIES WILL BE ACCEPTED with increasing late penalties to end of Saturday, 3rd September.

-------- ======================= -------

 

EWP Forecasts in order

 

118_IRem ..115_dave ..110_NN, Frig ..109_non^ ..99_wx-his ..95.2_KW ..90_wxen91,SF,J10^ ..

 88_shil .. 87_MrM ..  86_Ste .. 85_DR(S), sum8906, Fed .. 83_Feb78 .. 82.5_wx26 ..

 81_Feb91 .. 80_sb .. 79_SLE ..  78_Bobd29 .. 77.2_81-10 .. 77_EG,Don .. 76_fre,dan^ .. 76_91-20 ..

 75_snow,Mul .. 73_TWave .. 72.7_RJS .. 72_sum18 .. 69_MIA^ .. 68_sunv ... 67_Reef .. 66_Godb ..

 65_syed, sea .. 63_virt, WT .. 62_dww .. 61.5_pSL .. 61_rwtwm .. 60.1_jon ..

 60_EdS, PIT .. 57_star .. 40.2_PG .. 40_Earth 

44 on-time forecasts plus 4 marked one day late ^ (48 in total)

 

 

Edited October 1, 2022 by Roger J Smith
corrected order of entry to sort 14.5 correctly

[noname_weather]

15.1C and 109mm.

Always first time being late,

[Mark Smithy]

14.1C

(Edit as last night counts towards August, I believe, I hope my 7 am entry on the 1st September will be permitted?! )

Edited September 1, 2022 by Mark Smithy

[Midlands Ice Age]

Soory to be late...

Going for 14.8C and 69mms please.

MIA

[Kentish Man]

Sorry one day late. 14.0C please

[J10]

A late 14.7c and 90mm.

[Daniel*]

14.2C and 76mm thanks 

[Roger J Smith]

Daily and cumulative normals for CET in September (1981-2010) with daily extremes 1772-2021

v2.0 CET is used for the daily records now, the running CET data are still legacy CET 

 

Date __ CET __ cum ____ max ____ min (records 1772-2021) ___ Extremes of daily running CET

 

01 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 _____ 22.0 (1906) __ 7.1 (1816) __________  21.8 (1780,1906) _ 7.1 (1816)

02 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 _____ 22.3 (1906) __ 7.6 (1816) ___________ 22.1 (1906) ______ 7.4 (1816)

03 ___ 15.3 __ 15.4 _____ 19.8 (1880) __ 8.2 (1816) ___________ 21.4 (1906) ______ 7.6 (1816)

04 ___ 14.7 __ 15.2 _____ 20.6 (2005) __ 7.7 (1841) ____________20.2 (1906) ______ 7.9 (1816)

05 ___ 15.2 __ 15.2 _____ 22.4 (1949) __ 8.1 (1841) ____________19.3 (1906) ______ 8.2 (1816)

06 ___ 15.1 __ 15.2 _____ 20.8 (1898) __ 8.5 (1841) ____________19.0 (1906) ______ 8.4 (1816)

07 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 20.9 (1868) __ 8.1 (1952) ____________19.0 (1906) ______ 9.1 (1816)

08 ___ 15.0 __ 15.1 _____ 21.6* (1898) __8.8 (1931) ___________ 18.7 (1898,1906) __ 9.6 (1816)

09 ___ 14,7 __ 15,1 _____ 19.5 (1781,1898) _ 9.0 (1912) _______ 18.5 (1898) _____ 10.0 (1816)

10 ___ 14.7 __ 15.0 _____ 19.1 (1865,2011) __ 8.6 (1860) ______ 18.2 (1898) _____ 10.3 (1816)

 

11 ___ 14.8 __ 15.0 _____ 20.2 (1999) __ 8.2 (1860) _____________ 18.1 (1865,1898) _ 10.4 (1816)

12 ___ 14.4 __ 15.0 _____ 20.3 (1945) __ 8.1 (1848) _____________ 18.2 (1865) _____ 10.6 (1816)

13 ___ 13.9 __ 14.9 _____ 20.7 (2016) __ 6.7 (1807) _____________ 18.2 (1865) _____ 10.8 (1816)

14 ___ 13.7 __ 14.8 _____ 21.3 (2016) __ 6.7 (1807) _____________ 18.1 (1865) _____ 10.9 (1931)

15 ___ 13.6 __ 14.7 _____ 20.1 (2020) __ 7.8 (1986) _____________ 18.1 (1865) _____ 10.8 (1807)

16 ___ 13.7 __ 14.7 _____ 19.6 (1961) __ 8.1 (1807,1903) ________ 18.2 (1865) _____ 10.6 (1807)

17 ___ 13.8 __ 14.6 _____ 20.1 (1898) __ 8.1 (1807) ______________ 18.1 (1865) _____ 10.5 (1807)

18 ___ 13.9 __ 14.6 _____ 19.8 (1926) __ 6.9 (1807) ______________ 17.9 (1865) _____ 10.3 (1807)

19 ___ 13.6 __ 14,5 _____ 20.9 (1926) __ 7.3 (1952) ______________ 17.8 (1865) _____ 10.2 (1807)

20 ___ 14.0 __ 14.5 _____ 18.4 (1947) __ 6.9 (1919) ______________ 17.8 (1865) _____ 10.1 (1807)

 

21 ___ 13.7 __ 14.5 _____ 21.4 (2006) __ 6.7 (1836,1872) ________ 17.5 (1865) _____ 10.1 (1807)

22 ___ 13.8 __ 14.4 _____ 18.7 (1956) __ 6.6 (1872) ______________ 17.2 (1865) _____ 10.2 (1807)

23 ___ 13.5 __ 14.4 _____ 18.3 (1956) __ 6.0 (1773) _____________ 17.1 (1865,2006) _10.3 (1807)

24 ___ 12.8 __ 14.3 _____ 18.5 (1895) __ 6.9 (1872) ______________ 17.1 (2006) _____ 10.4 (1807)

25 ___ 12.7 __ 14.3 _____ 19.2 (1895) __ 7.4 (1812) ______________ 17.1 (2006) _____ 10.4 (1807)

26 ___ 12.8 __ 14.2 _____ 18.4 (1895) __ 6.0 (1885) ______________ 17.1 (2006) _____ 10.4 (1807)

27 ___ 12.9 __ 14.2 _____ 19.7 (1895) __ 6.0 (1885) _________17.0 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

28 ___ 13.2 __ 14.1 _____ 18.9 (2011) __ 4.9 (1824) ______________ 17.0 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

29 ___ 13.1 __ 14.1 _____ 19.7 (2011) __ 5.6 (1918) ______________ 16.9 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

30 ___ 12.8 __ 14.04 ____ 20.0 (2011) __ 6.3 (1808) ______________ 16.8 (2006) _____ 10.5 (1807)

* legacy record was 21.4 (2021) which remains the v2.0 value but 1898 was adjusted from 21.3 to 21.6

==================================================

1991-2020 CET daily and cumulative values

01 ___ 15.2 __ 15.2 __________ 11 ___ 14.9 __ 15.1 __________ 21 ___ 14.0 __ 14.6 __________

02 ___ 15.5 __ 15.3 __________ 12 ___ 14.6 __ 15.1 __________ 22 ___ 13.8 __ 14.5 __________

03 ___ 15.6 __ 15.4 __________ 13 ___ 14.3 __ 15.0 __________ 23 ___ 13.5 __ 14.5 __________

04 ___ 15.2 __ 15.4 __________ 14 ___ 14.1 __ 14.9 __________ 24 ___ 13.0 __ 14.4 __________

05 ___ 15.4 __ 15.4 __________ 15 ___ 14.0 __ 14.9 __________ 25 ___ 13.0 __ 14.4 __________

06 ___ 15.1 __ 15.3 __________ 16 ___ 13.8 __ 14.8 __________ 26 ___ 13.1 __ 14.3 __________

07 ___ 14.9 __ 15.3 __________ 17 ___ 13.5 __ 14.7 __________ 27 ___ 13.2 __ 14.3 __________

08 ___ 14.8 __ 15.2 __________ 18 ___ 13.6 __ 14.7 __________ 28 ___ 13.5 __ 14.2 __________

09 ___ 14.8 __ 15.2 __________ 19 ___ 13.8 __ 14.6 __________ 29 ___ 13.5 __ 14.2 __________

10 ___ 14.7 __ 15.1 __________ 20 ___ 14.3 __ 14.6 __________ 30 ___ 13.1 __ 14.2 __________

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Not in the competition, been well distracted with a lot of personal losses, another funeral next week.  A very sad side effect / collateral damage of Covid.  We should be quite wet this month with some pretty cool airmasses at times.  Be well, be safe

BFTP