September 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

Had a look at CET stations max and min 1st to 4th and would estimate we are close to 17.0 C after four days. That would be 1.8 above the 1981-2010 average, probably more so compared to 1961-90. 

[Don]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

Had a look at CET stations max and min 1st to 4th and would estimate we are close to 17.0 C after four days. That would be 1.8 above the 1981-2010 average, probably more so compared to 1961-90. 

Yes, hard to see how September can be below average, even at this very early stage!

[Roger J Smith]

Also, looks like EWP would be around 6-7 mm so far, with many locations dry until today, some localized moderate amounts. Unlike eastern Ireland which has generally seen 40-70 mm already. From the GFS projections, would estimate that EWP will be around 50 mm within ten days and around 70 mm by 20th. Some areas are shown with over 110 mm by then. 

The CET projections assuming my 17.0 estimate for 1-4 is close, would be 16.5 through ten days and perhaps 15.5 to 16 by the 20th. There is a generally cooler look to the maps beyond mid-month but of course that is not as reliable as the warm look until then.

I think we will all hit our numbers at some point but whether that's the end of the 30th or some other date is the big thing. 

[Scorcher]

My local weather station Rostherne is running at 19.1C for the first 5 days of the month- a very warm start indeed.

Probably a fall over the rest of this week but the nights are looking like they will remain warm so should hold it up somewhat.

[reef]

(Moved from August thread)

September so far could be in the high 18s or low 19s as even here the mean for the first 5 days is 19.3C.

It'll certainly be well above average, though unusually for 2022 more due to the high minima.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 18.6C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall 22.1mm 33.6% of the monthly average.

[Earthshine]

CET to the 5th is 18.4°C which is 4.8°C above average.  The maximum CET is 22.6°C which is 5.1°C above average.  For this year to have the highest maximum CET on record the anomaly must be greater than -0.41°C(!) above average for the rest of the year.

[Roger J Smith]

New record high minimum of 15.4 on 4th (old record in v2.0 was 14.7 in 1973). No record maxima or daily means. Average to 5th is 0.7 below record high running mean (1906 19.1) but ahead of record for the 10th so if it stays this warm, could be running highest all-time soon. 

When I was looking up the monthly for August, I noticed that Feb, Mar, May, July and August 2022 were all visible among the top 25 that my page happened to contain. 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

18.2c to the 6th

4.6c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 18.5C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall up to 22.6mm 34.3% of the monthly average.

[Roger J Smith]

Now that the EWP is back on track, can report that about 27 mm has fallen so far (20.1 mm to 5th), and the grid average for both ten and sixteen days is about 30 mm additional, so days 11-16 not adding much, would estimate 60 mm by 23rd from this blend. This has been fluctuating from run to run depending on how much rain remnants of Danielle and associated lows could bring by about this coming weekend to Monday 12th. I have seen output that is as high as 70 mm. Ireland and Scotland will have considerably more rain and already have seen more than the EWP average.

The CET projections look fairly tame, one or two very warm days are in the mix but in general I would expect the running CET to drop steadily with pauses on those warmer days, reaching the low 15 range by the 23rd from this output. Highs are rarely above 20 C in the second half of the outlook period and some colder nights are in store also. 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

The CET projections look fairly tame, one or two very warm days are in the mix but in general I would expect the running CET to drop steadily with pauses on those warmer days, reaching the low 15 range by the 23rd from this output. Highs are rarely above 20 C in the second half of the outlook period and some colder nights are in store also. 

I hope the CET finishes in the 14's this month (can't see it dropping into 13's) and not just because of my CET guess, although saying that, it would be nice lol! 

[Summer Sun]

18.1c to the 7th

4.5c above the 61 to 90 average
3.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[Earthshine]

Potentially some very warm days ahead and into next week.  Be interesting to see where the CET is considering its beginning at a very high level.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 18.4C +2.0C above normal. Rainfall 29.3mm 44.5% of the monthly average.

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Potentially some very warm days ahead and into next week.  Be interesting to see where the CET is considering its beginning at a very high level.

Yes, as I said earlier in the model discussion thread, an above average month is pretty much in the bag already and will need a big cool down later on if it's to be in the above average category rather than well above!

Edited September 8, 2022 by Don

[Roger J Smith]

The CET has started warmer than all but three of the past 250 Septembers, running means (converted to v2.0) for the top 16 values including 2022 and where they finished: 

Rank ___ Year ___ CET 1-7 ____ CET 1-30 (rank if top 20)

_ 01 ____ 1906 ____ 18.8 _____ 13.9

_ 02 ____ 1999 ____ 18.3 _____ 15.6 (t9)*

_ 03 ____ 1898 ____ 18.2 _____ 15.2 (t15) (1898 was 18.9 by 9th)

_ 04 ____ 2022 ____ 18.1 _____ ?? 

_ 05 ____ 2005 ____ 18.0 _____ 15.2 (t15)

_ 06 ____ 1795 ____ 17.9 _____ 16.0 (t6)

_t07 ____ 1868 ____ 17.8 _____ 14.3

_t07 ____ 1880 ____ 17.8 _____ 14.6

_t07 ____ 1973 ____ 17.8 _____ 14.3

_t07 ____ 1949 ____ 17.8 _____ 16.3 (t3)

_t07 ____ 1958 ____ 17.8 _____ 15.1 (t20)

_t12 ____ 1780 ____ 17.7 _____ 15.6 (t9)*

_t12 ____ 1824 ____ 17.7 _____ 13.7

_t12 ____ 1865 ____ 17.7 _____ 16.3 (t3)

_t15 ____ 1991 ____ 17.6 _____ 14.6

_t15 ____ 2006 ____ 17.6 _____ 16.8 (1)

* all ranks after 8th (1760) include at least one year (1760) with no daily data

(note 2021 was 17.2 and reached 18.0 by 11th, end of month 16.0 t6)

2016 was also 17.2 and finished 16.1 (5)

1895 was 16.0 and finished 15.4 (11)

1929 was 17.3 and finished 15.3 (t12)

 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

17.8c to the 8th

4.3c above the 61 to 90 average
2.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 18.1C +1.9C above normal. Rainfall 35.4mm 53.8% of the monthly average.

[damianslaw]

A very mild start.. but September typically is a month that cools markedly in the last 10 days.. need to see where we are by the 20th before calling whether it ends up one of the warmest. The cloudy skies are holding minima up. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 18C +1.9C above average. Rainfall 37.2mm 56.5% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

17.7c to the 9th

4.1c above the 61 to 90 average
2.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

EWP already up to about 53 mm (45.0 to 8th, then about 8 mm at least on 9th). However the trend now becomes fairly dry away from the southeast which has projections for 30-40 mm, and the sixteen day GFS projection is only 10-15 mm more for a value late in the month in the 60s. 

The 06z GFS was a warmer run than the 00z, and would perhaps keep the CET above 16, the 00z looked closer to 15. 

[Don]

35 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

The 06z GFS was a warmer run than the 00z, and would perhaps keep the CET above 16, the 00z looked closer to 15. 

Not good!  At least some of the other models are going for a marked cool down later next week with some cooler nights.

[Roger J Smith]

12z GFS a bit cooler than 06z, would estimate 15.2 by 26th from that run. Rather warm 21st to 24th between cool spells. Some hope for the 14 something forecasts there.