Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere: Winter 22/23

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Time's marching on and the Autumn thread starts next week, so time to roll out this year's version of a NetWeather classic. I've done some comparison slides from the archives going back to 1998 (doesn't go back any further) for you to chew over too. 

 

 

[farmeryellow]

I have been waiting for this thread, cheers! 

My 2p I think this winter will be colder and a lot dryer than average.

[The Future]

Ice volume:

[StretfordEnd1996]

At what time of year do we expect ice/snow cover begin to form at lower areas around the pole. 

Always get my timings mixed up each year. October time maybe? 

Edited August 22, 2022 by StretfordEnd1996

[Turnedoutniceagain]

19 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

At what time of year do we expect ice/snow cover begin to form at lower areas around the pole. 

Always get my timings mixed up each year. October time maybe? 

Yes, the melt usually continues through September

[Midlands Ice Age]

Normally sea ice starts its increase (in extent) around the 10thSept, the snow normally shows its hand in Northern Siberia around the end of the first week of Sept. Volume will decease until early Oct(usually through bottom melt).

Climate Reanalyser shows the cool down in minimum temps starting around now  (based upon 10day GFS forecast) for the next 10 days.

          

DMI ((temperature for North of 80degrees lat) is showing the peak of summer heating is passing,though normally sea ice starts to form when the temperature falls below 270K (about -3C)..

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2022.png

So a little bit early but keep watching for the first snow falls!!!

MIA 

Edited August 22, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[damianslaw]

Normallh by the third week of September we have peaked in terms of low sea ice state.. and it's then a case of watching it rebuild along with snow cover advancement in Siberia. The latter can appear as early as late August but is often temporary. We have this annoying 3-4 week period to go through before things kick properly into gear, chimes with what I rank as the most indifferent time of the year when summer tries best to hang on and often succeeds against an autumn that wants to hide away until the equinox.

[summer blizzard]

Excellent, can't wait for the snowy Twitter reports. 

Ice is tracking at the highest since 2014 for the date.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

[Don]

7 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

And the white spots start to appear!

[damianslaw]

On 22/08/2022 at 15:42, summer blizzard said:

Excellent, can't wait for the snowy Twitter reports. 

Ice is tracking at the highest since 2014 for the date.

Perhaps not too surprising given the paucity of high lattitude blocking this summer. Low pressure and northerly jet has locked the cold in place over the Pole.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Temperatures beginning to fall steadily now,  north of 80 degrees.

I suspect we will not have to wait much longer before the snowfall 'sticks' and the ice begins to form.   

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2022.png

 

 

MIA

 

 

 

Edited August 26, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[summer blizzard]

Do we have the ice freeze dates since 2007.

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

Do we have the ice freeze dates since 2007.

Found this on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum  (Thanks to Gerontocrat)

 

MIA

Edited August 26, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Bradley in Kent]

I've got to say I do enjoy this thread and look forward to another cycle!

We've still got some melting to go, but it won't be long before we start the ascent.

[lottiekent]

Just came on to see if this thread had been created yet, always one of my favourites 

[Wheezer]

[Turnedoutniceagain]

[Midlands Ice Age]

NSIDC data ( as displayed by Masie) has shown increases in sea ice for the last 4 days. Increases of +13K, +50K, +51K and today +81K have been recorded.-  

Now this is very unusual as we are in the melt season under normal conditions for another 12 days on average (and best at 9 - 11 days). 

Is it a red herring?, If the ice growth continues for another couple of days it may well become significant.

Below are the charts from Climate reanalyser for today and 10 days.

Today -

       

Day 10 (8th Sept)

 

                                                                               

The weather under a developing area of high pressure over Svalbard  (and extending down to the UK!) looks like producing very cold nights up there, with temperatures below -10C soon, which will refreeze the melt pools.. 

I cannot see much change for the next 10 days. 

 

In addition this is the current DMI (above 80degrees lat) temperature graph which is now close to freeze initiation temperatures.

     

Another couple of days and with JAXA turning positive, we could witness a very early start of refreeze.

MIA                        

Edited August 30, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Wheezer]

August 29 a record 7 gigaton gain , a record for  summertime months in Greenland .

 

 

 

[Aleman]

Some might recall I follow attempts to transit the Northwest Passage by non-ice class pleasure craft each year. (They're mad but it's entertaining.) They were banned for two years yet somebody got himself in trouble for ignoring it last year and going through despite it never opening clearly - ice blockages in different places at different times but no fully open route - so very risky "going through trap doors". Despite ongoing melt, wind changes can encase you in ice until refreeze starts and you're then stuck for 11 months - if you don't crush and sink!

They've been making up for lost time due to Covid this year with loads of pleasure craft, cruise liners  and ice-class supply vessels all over the place. They've been having trouble with central and western areas due to high ice levels flowing in from the main polar ice pack and more old ice which is harder and slower to melt.  Ice cover this summer has been at or a whisker above the average for the 40+ year satellite series, helped by a colder than average Arctic summer but there has been milder weeks recently and ice cover has eased below average again in the last couple of weeks. (I'm just talking about the Canadian/Alaskan ice along the NWP here and not polar or Russia.)  Despite that there are still ice blockages along the Alaskan coast and in the central area above Gjoa Haven.  After coming in from the east, ice drifting SE closed behind some of the pleasure craft without a way out west - but with more melt expected given fair weather. One has sneaked through a few days ago somehow. Another 3 are trying to head west under very favourable weather conditions at the moment - a mild tailwind pushing the Alaskan blockage away towards Siberia  and dispersing it. Alaska seems to be the only Arctic area left showing significant melt at the moment (from casual observation rather than scanning numbers). The yachts should make it through but snowy lows have started coming around from Siberia where they've dropped the temperature on Siberian high ground. Winter is kicking in there. Alaskan coast temperatures are still very mild but predicted to drop a bit in 3 or 4 days when the first snows look likely on the back of earler said low going east. 

Snow is a catalyst to early sea ice formation, forming a slush that calms the surface and stops warmth churning up from deeper, allowing the top to freeze if it gets thick enough. Snow can then deepen on the solid top, perhaps melting and refreezing into a harder ice - even if warm sea water is still melting it a little underneath. Eventually the sea gets cold enough that ice builds from the bottom, too, freezing out the salt, though that comes perhaps  a few degrees colder and couple of weeks later. So significant snows have restarted and sea ice will be starting to form but it's slush to begin with that can drift in and out of satellite measurement. (I'm no expert but this is my understanding on reading a bit over numerous years now.) Snow has already started along the Siberian coast and more is likely thanks to a building polar high and falling temperatures as the sun drops. The easterlies across the tops of the lows around the polar high look like sucking more pack ice across from the Alaskan side to block out the open sea's warmth in places. I doubt the remaining significant blockage to the Northern Route/Northeast Passage near Wrangel Island is going to melt out if Alaskan ice is joining and snow fills in the gaps. It's the flipside of the melt and dispersion still going on at Alaska.

Whilst I suspect 4 pleasure craft look set to complete a NWP transit east to west, many turned back, perhaps not being offered a clear (safe) enough run to risk it. One also got itself trapped for days in ice by choosing an unpopulated harbour NE of Gjoa Haven that wind subsequently filled in with ice floes. It's signal vanished as it hugged very close to shore or even looked to be on it to avoid crushing (both dangerous - uncharted rocks and polar bears). I'll be looking for what happened to it. These central NWP areas, such as Resolute in Nunavut, that still have sea ice near are getting frosts at night and snow or freezing rain. The latter is very dangerous for small craft so getting out of there is a good idea even if there is no sea ice.  Melt season there, at the pole and Siberia seems to be over but Alaskan melt remains higher than normal for now. We have reached that September limbo where there's some melt, some freeze and some other stuff going on like sea slush, frasil and grease ice which might not always record on satellite but quickly could with a bit more snow on top - the numbers can jump up an down a bit but they're not necessarily really jumping up and down so much as changing in nature. There's just lots of different types of intermediate sea ice as temperatures ease down through 0 to -5C. Exactly what they are facing is very important to small pleasure craft if they're mad enough to go sailing at this time of year as winter eases out of its slumber.

 

 

[Don]

14 hours ago, Wheezer said:

August 29 a record 7 gigaton gain , a record for  summertime months in Greenland .

 

 

 

Wow, somewhat different to 10 years ago!!

[Midlands Ice Age]

Last 2days have seen increases by Masie of +81K and +87K have shattered any hopes (mine?) of a very early refreeze. 

However the extent values are still higher than those of 6 - 7 days ago.

JAXA  shows diminishing extent loss and it looks as though we are aiming at a minimum ice extent on around the 10th to 12th of Septemeber. About average.

(with thanks to the ASIF) 

and also JAXA sea ice extent (365 day average) seems to be breaking out of its  10year trendline.

 

Following up on Wheezers and Alemans posts I have just noticed that my telephone weather app is forecasting snowfall for NE Siberia over the  weekend. 

 

MIA

[Turnedoutniceagain]

On 01/09/2022 at 02:49, Wheezer said:

August 29 a record 7 gigaton gain , a record for  summertime months in Greenland .

 

 

 

Thanks for that, v interesting

 

Sept 01's chart and lots of white pixels seem to have popped up in Siberia. What could they be?? 

 

[Don]

2 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Thanks for that, v interesting

 

Sept 01's chart and lots of white pixels seem to have popped up in Siberia. What could they be?? 

 

Hail??