Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere: Winter 22/23

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Pixels in Scotland....

 

[johncam]

Sea ice currently lower than 2012 which is surprising 

[Midlands Ice Age]

With large changes in the northern hemispheric  tropospheric pattern, I thought that a quick update might be useful on this forum.

Headline news  -A DOUBLE CENTURY-  increase in Arctic Sea ice extent today by Masie.

For the latest week  the sea ice has been reducing the pace of its ice up -  as the weather patterns made changes.

This was not unexpected (by me) as i have already reported we are at the moment when 90% of the Internal artic basin has been filled, but the 'outer' sea areas had not yet moved into freeze mode.   

The temperatures rose in the Arctic as the WAA through North America (particularly thru the Baffin and Alaska) moved into the Arctic.

This initial phase has now completed, and has resulted in large snow accumulation and decreased ice extent increases - much as expected.

Changes have now completed and Masie ice extent has increased by (+374K Km2) in the last 3 days. 

This includes the 222k KM2 increase today.

As posted last week the  sea ice extent gains switches from the inner basin to the  'outer' sea areas. 

The latest chart (above) shows that the last 2 days have put us back amongst the last 5 years highest.

Gains have indeed been mainly in the outer sea area with Hudson (+145K) (in 2days) , Barents (+39K) and the SOO (+109K), whilst in addition,  the central pack CAB (+39K) started to push southwards towards the western Russia coastline.

All the outer sea areas showed an initial increase with Cooke Inlet (+1K), Baltic (+1K), and a first showing of Ice in the Yellow Sea(+1K).

With conditions not changing in the next 7 days I expect a similar pattern over the next week with several large gains in the outer sea areas as the cold is spread into northern mid-level latitudes completes.

Expect large gains in the areas already starting to increase (those as discussed above).

 

So it is proving to be a fast moving ice growth season so far, with weather conditions strongly dictating the pace of ice growth.

MIA.

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Hi Guys

Talking about rapidly changing.....

Snow cover gradually moving into Western Europe... Scotland now being covered.

   

But it is the sea ice extents where big things are happening quickly.

I spent some time on the ASIF and despite JAXA (the favourite extent measurement tool for them) going negative in the last week, it has rebounded back in incredible  fashion -

       

In fact it reports that today's 270K KM2 increase is the largest ever for December, and only has been beaten in November in this century on a couple of occasions.. It follows on from a 200K KM2 increase on yesterday's chart.

So, although we certainly had pain (as Johncam alluded to above) it is looking as if it is for the longer term gain.

With the current weather conditions being fairly static world wide, I can fore see the increases continuing for a few days yet, with a quite rapid freeze in the relatively free ice  waters that are available outside the Arctic Basin.

If they do then we will go from 2nd place (above bottom) in the last 17 years to 15th, within a few days. (surely also a record). as we are within 150KKm2 (close behind) many of the others now, (see chart2 above). Where hIgher position is better !!!

So this year is beginning to look a lot different from most other years that we can analysise.

(With thanks for the above charts to The ASIF). 

Masie comes out shortly and I expect to see a continuation of the trend.

Be back later to report.

MIA

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

MASIE gives us the highest increase in sea ice extent ever. (+331K KM2) in one day, and  after massive increases in the previous 2 days.

 WOW and WOW.

Note this is an all time December record, and one of the highest ever recorded..

and comes after the record jaxa  figures I showed earlier. 

Although I was expecting an increase today (see above notes), I was not expecting this.

  or this      

Some great increases over the whole pack as the total goes to number one in the last 5 years (11.7M Km2).,

The main contributors are Chuckchi (+35K), Kara (+16K), Barents (+39K), Greenland (+17K), Baffin (+31K), Hudson (+116K),  CAB (+7K), Bering (+60K) and Baltic (+4K). 

Back to number 1 (as predicted above) in the last 5 years and close to the 2000's average figures.  

Truly a remarkable day and way beyond my expectations.

All caused by the mass outflow of very cold air from the the central Arctic pack that I forecast last week. 

Temperature of Arctic graph to follow later.

Could there be a decrease tomorrow?

MIA

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Decided to cheer myself up after watching England lose, by looking at the ice extents,.  

The answer to my question in my previous post above is NO. Another 139K KM2 increase was recorded by Masie today.

You should realise that, at this point in the refreeze, we normally go through a 'stasis' whereby increases are around 50-60K Km2. 

This is now the 4th day on the trot when an average of a double century increase has shown up.

No fluke this.

The total just short of  12M Km2.

To show what this does to the ice stats I'll show a couple of ASIF Charts-

     

The second of which means that sea ice extent has gone from 3rd lowest (3days ago) to 12th lowest in the last 3 days....

Todays increases follow the same pattern as yesterday, with  the 'outer' areas taking the lead.

Hudson (+59K), SOO (+19K), Chukchi(+16K), Kara (+16K) and Greenland (+10K) were the leaders.

The pattern remains with the colder air being released to lower latitudes, so I expect gains to continue for now.

All in all. a very nice sea ice extent report. 

There..... I feel happier already...

MIA

 

[Derecho]

On 10/12/2022 at 22:27, Midlands Ice Age said:

Decided to cheer myself up after watching England lose, by looking at the ice extents,.  

The answer to my question in my previous post above is NO. Another 139K KM2 increase was recorded by Masie today.

You should realise that, at this point in the refreeze, we normally go through a 'stasis' whereby increases are around 50-60K Km2. 

This is now the 4th day on the trot when an average of a double century increase has shown up.

No fluke this.

The total just short of  12M Km2.

To show what this does to the ice stats I'll show a couple of ASIF Charts-

     

The second of which means that sea ice extent has gone from 3rd lowest (3days ago) to 12th lowest in the last 3 days....

Todays increases follow the same pattern as yesterday, with  the 'outer' areas taking the lead.

Hudson (+59K), SOO (+19K), Chukchi(+16K), Kara (+16K) and Greenland (+10K) were the leaders.

The pattern remains with the colder air being released to lower latitudes, so I expect gains to continue for now.

All in all. a very nice sea ice extent report. 

There..... I feel happier already...

MIA

 

Sea Ice increases recently seem to be making up for lost ground.... we are still lower then this time last year and outside the 1 standard deviation bound. The next 7 days look good for increases in volume though given the cold pooling in Arctic regions.

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Sea Ice increases recently seem to be making up for lost ground.... we are still lower then this time last year and outside the 1 standard deviation bound. The next 7 days look good for increases in volume though given the cold pooling in Arctic regions.

Thanks for your reply QS..

 Where exactly is that ice extent graph from?   I suspect a NOAA /NSIDC older chart.

(Just checked and it is an older chart)

Also It doesn't show last years 2021 /22 winter details? 

I suspect it is 3 days (or more) out of date.

Jaxa shows we are more than 100K KM2 more than 21/22  this morning - (thanks to the ASIF)

 

and Masie shows we are now above 21/22 by even more-

I suspect you are using the  old information.

You are correct in one way though, the recent very large gains came after a lull in sea ice extent increases ( whilst the  NH pattern changed). It was interesting to see that whilst this (the hiatus) was happening, that the temperature of the Arctic dropped to the long term (1959 - 2000)  average.   However the recent large increases (during last week) have now taken us back above the level required for parity (for ice extent),whilst the temperatures have  risen.. 

It is going to be interesting to see what happens as we move into a bit more of an Atlantic driven pattern with an Arctic high (replacing the vortex at trop), caused by the jet becoming more dominant around the world. 

MIA

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Lets ring the bells.....    Europe finally into the freezer with widespread snow (even into the UK). Ding dong  bong!. (that was Big Ben getting in on the act!)

4 days since the last posting so thought it worthwhile updating everyone who would like (want?)  to know.

          

In addition, very good extensive sea ice increases means we are currently well on track for a NH true winter.(Atm!!)

As can be seen from the second chart, large portions of the NH are already snow covered to more than 40cms.

Rutgers show coverage above average still (within the top 10% for all years) and currently as per last week was ranked 4th (out of 56years), and this was before any growth in Europe really started.

The  latest sea ice extent figures continue to extend the newly found atmospheric influences a big bonus.

Masie has increased its 'lead' over 2021 to nearly 200K Km2, and JAXA  shows the extent at 13th out of the last 16 years.

   

The really exciting news is that the last couple of days, Masie  has seen a new burst with just about all sea areas showing increases.

Total sea ice extent now at 12.3M KM2 with the last 4 days showing increases of (+132K) and (+113K) in the last two, when average is about 70K Km2 per day.

Chukchi has gained (+34K in that time ), and is now just about full, ready to burst out into the Bering Sea. Whilst Kara has remained constant.  

Berants has started to gain now  (+61K), whereas Greenland is oscillating.

Baffin (+44K)  is now stretching way south westwards towards N.A., whilst Hudson has just about filled with an increase of (+86K).

But the best news is that all the 'outer' sea areas are now in ice gain mode.....

Increases today in Baltic (+2K), Cooke inlet(+1K), Yellow Sea (+2K), show that the colder air is now well south.

Increases of (+38K) in Bering, (+36K) in the SOO, and (+18K) in the CAB (Central pack), indicate that the central artic is now cooling again as the WAA has now stopped, and as a new central high pressure is starting to dominate again..

 

Temperatures of the Arctic (over 80 degrees latitude) after oscillating for a week, are showing the classic economist outlook for a downturn with each min and max being less than the previous.

 So a drop is now expected again under the clear Arctic high nights..

These colder temps (Below -50C in Siberia now) mean any easterly in the UK will be action packed.

Half way thru the month today so I will do a full review of where each area stands next time. 

So a very positive update from me today... 

Lets all hope it continues.

MIA 

Edited December 15, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[nobble]

4 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Lets ring the bells.....    Europe finally into the freezer with widespread snow (even into the UK). Ding dong  bong!. (that was Big Ben getting in on the act!)

4 days since the last posting so thought it worthwhile updating everyone who would like (want?)  to know.

          

In addition, very good extensive sea ice increases means we are currently well on track for a NH true winter.(Atm!!)

As can be seen from the second chart, large portions of the NH are already snow covered to more than 40cms.

Rutgers show coverage above average still (within the top 10% for all years) and currently as per last week was ranked 4th (out of 56years), and this was before any growth in Europe really started.

The  latest sea ice extent figures continue to extend the newly found atmospheric influences a big bonus.

Masie has increased its 'lead' over 2021 to nearly 200K Km2, and JAXA  shows the extent at 13th out of the last 16 years.

   

The really exciting news is that the last couple of days, Masie  has seen a new burst with just about all sea areas showing increases.

Total sea ice extent now at 12.3M KM2 with the last 4 days showing increases of (+132K) and (+113K) in the last two, when average is about 70K Km2 per day.

Chukchi has gained (+34K in that time ), and is now just about full, ready to burst out into the Bering Sea. Whilst Kara has remained constant.  

Berants has started to gain now  (+61K), whereas Greenland is oscillating.

Baffin (+44K)  is now stretching way south westwards towards N.A., whilst Hudson has just about filled with an increase of (+86K).

But the best news is that all the 'outer' sea areas are now in ice gain mode.....

Increases today in Baltic (+2K), Cooke inlet(+1K), Yellow Sea (+2K), show that the colder air is now well south.

Increases of (+38K) in Bering, (+36K) in the SOO, and (+18K) in the CAB (Central pack), indicate that the central artic is now cooling again as the WAA has now stopped, and as a new central high pressure is starting to dominate again..

 

Temperatures of the Arctic (over 80 degrees latitude) after oscillating for a week, are showing the classic economist outlook for a downturn with each min and max being less than the previous.

 So a drop is now expected again under the clear Arctic high nights..

These colder temps (Below -50C in Siberia now) mean any easterly in the UK will be action packed.

Half way thru the month today so I will do a full review of where each area stands next time. 

So a very positive update from me today... 

Lets all hope it continues.

MIA 

Thanks for another informative and interesting report

arctic sea ice in ride health , 

early in winter but another good year on the bounce  , 

 

surely all this ice and snow will only aid to make it colder ,

 

[carinthian]

Snow and freezing  conditions . Currently -8c in Vancouver City Centre. My son just sent this picture from the main entertainment area ( Granville St ) in downtown. 

C

[carinthian]

3 hours ago, carinthian said:

Snow and freezing  conditions . Currently -8c in Vancouver City Centre. My son just sent this picture from the main entertainment area ( Granville St ) in downtown. 

C

More pictures from The Vancouver Blizzard raging now in a deserted city centre.

C

[Northwest NI]

28 minutes ago, carinthian said:

More pictures from The Vancouver Blizzard raging now in a deserted city centre.

C

That’s impressive as Vancouver is a coastal city

[carinthian]

7 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

That’s impressive as Vancouver is a coastal city

Yes it is , especially the temp on the harbour is currently -7c . My son who lives a few miles inland from Vancouver up on The Arbutus Ridge ( picture below )is recording even deeper snowfall and current temp of -11c . Quite exceptional pre Christmas winter storm for Lower BC. Some temps as low as -50c currently further up North.

C

[carinthian]

Overnight snow in Vancouver now moving south followed by  Continental Arctic flow. Temp -12c in Arbutus, just south of downtown.

C

[Midlands Ice Age]

Nearly a week since my last update has seen (much like as in the UK) a big change in the NH ice and snow, so are you up for a pre-Xmas update?

Snow has reduced in Europe, but as we have seen above, they has been extensive snow in the USA.

               

 

Total Arctic sea ice extent (according to Masie) is now at 12.6M KM2, having faltered in the last week somewhat, but coming back strongly again now.

             

The last few days have continued the theme of very variable increases.   

It started off with  decreases  of (-65K)  and (-102K), as ice melt suddenly took over in the SOO (lost 150K) in the 2 days thanks to a  vigorous depression moving in from the Pacific, and also smaller losses in Hudson as WAA moved into the Arctic.

Since then the ice stabilized and then moved quickly to regain the major losses it had recorded with increases of . (+8k), (+117K) , (+66K) and (+174K) for each day.

In addition to regained extent in the SOO and the Hudson, ice increases have been recorded in Baffin (+77K), Bering (+39K, now full)  and Barents (+37K), now having finally reached the Svalbard Islands.

The outer sea areas have also gained as follows  -  Baltic (+8K), Cooke inlet (+11K) and Yellow Sea (+1K).

Temperatures in the northern Hemisphere have remained remarkably constant with the warmth in Europe being cancelled out by cold in the in the United States.

      

In the Arctic area perimeter temperatures have also oscillated  (according to DMI Masie)  -

  but still on a downward chart analysis trend. (just).

So the last week has seen the third downward push  in ice this season, caused by the variable weather in/over the Arctic.

This time the newly formed anticyclone of a week ago has disappeared and currently is being displaced by winds straight across the Arctic from the very cold Siberia over the pole to South of Greenland. A long fetch northerly but not affecting humans until it reaches our shores!!!!!!!!

So what will the next 7 days bring for our northern hemisphere?

I will be away for Xmas, but will pop in when possible, and I will update in a weeks time.

May I wish you all a very happy Christmas and especially a healthy, happy next year. 

MIA    

[Midlands Ice Age]

Before disappearing for Xmas, I have just realised that I haven't discussed ice thickness at all -

    (according to DMI)

The situation is just about OK at the moment...

When viewing this chart, one should realise that the purples and blues will all melt out during the spring. Most of the greens will also melt. It takes yellows to be certain it will stay.

A further thing to observe is the lack of very thick ice now (orange and reds), and most of what is left is positioned where it will be cast out of the Arctic.  

However on the plus side, the ice is thicker off the Russian (ESS) coastline this year and also that we still have the 3 months left of refreeze (and that the bottom sea ice only started to freeze up again about 4 weeks ago).

So expect a lot of 'thickening' over the next few months.

I'll use the above chart as a template for any analysis in the coming months.

MIA 

[claret047]

Just a quick note from me to thank posters on here in making this a most interesting thread during the winter months. It is the thread I look for at this time of year when I access the website.

Especial thanks to MIA for his extensive input on this interesting subject, All the best to you and your family.

Merry Christmas to everyone and let us hope for a more prosperous new year.

Kind Regards

Dave

[Midlands Ice Age]

Well the Xmas break is over, and before the New Year a quick update may well  be useful to some...

A week is a long time in weather.

We have seen the extreme weather in the North America and this seems as though it has triggered changes throughout the Northern Hemisphere.

Snow levels fell in Europe as they receded back to the Eastern European states. At the same time the snowfall in the States kept the totals at a high level. However,  in the last couple of days the snow has largely melted in the US, so that overall levels are now at normal levels for the time of year.

         

 

Sea ice levels have been extremely volatile as the  cold entering the US seems as though it has been forced by warmer air pushing up through other mainly sea areas (both east and west) in order to push the cold air into the central US states..

This has resulted in the perimeter areas freeze up coming to a stasis, whilst the inner areas are just about full leading to little ice extent increase..

Total ice extent (Masie) has grown by (+108K Km2) to now total 12,747M Km2  below the more normal levels of about 250 K Km2 during the week.

Daily changes of (-37K), (-16K), (+108K), (+19K), (+55K) and (-66K) reflect the volatility.

Comparing the ice in the inner basin areas with the outer shows the current position.  (thanks to ASIF).

    and      

Clearly shows the effect.  The basin areas being 15th out of the last 20 years (good), whilst the other areas are second to last.

The combined result leaves us in 6th  lowest position overall..

The next week will probably show little change, but areas such as Baltic, the SOO, Yellow Sea, and  Baffin  all  look primed for rapid growth, when weather conditions change.. 

Temperatures have continued to oscillate whilst still on a downward trend overall.

The strengthening of the Vortex over Svalbard looks to drag warmer air into the Barentz area, whilst allowing colder air to develop further east. 

             

 

A massively interesting year for snow and ice development is now ending. 

I will be back in the new year with an overview at the end of 2022.

 

MIA

[johncam]

Sea ice in Barents around Svalbard disappearing,  hasn't really got going in this area 

[Midlands Ice Age]

As promised a look back at last year's sea ice data in terms of the longer term trends.

 

(Thanks to the ASIF for the data).

Arctic sea ice area has finished the year in 6th lowest position. (NSIDC)

         

 

and for extent (jaxa), the latest position -

   shown to be in 5th place

 

Longer term, the annual sea ice extent (annual  total) is running above the longer term average though is dropping steadily as the effects of last years large increases at this time of year fade away-

     and         

So not as good as last year currently.....

An up to date report containing, I hope, much better news about the Barents sea ice data   (for John cam),    will be appearing shortly.

MIA

[Midlands Ice Age]

An update before the weekend (and for Johncam)....

Conditions in the higher Arctic have changed dramatically in the last couple of days.

it is now dominated by high pressure at the trop level.

   

The newly formed Arctic high has once again changed the weather over the NH, and we have a total disconnect between strat and troposphere.

The stasis in the ice extent as was being shown, whilst we  had low pressure over Barentz, has now been left behind.... 

Total ice extent,  according to Masie, has increased by (+355K Km2) to a total of 13,209K Km2, in the last 3 days.  Daily changes of (-37K), (+137K) , (+187k) and today (+39K) illustrate the variability.      

Most of this increase has occurred outside the main 7 Arctic 'high' regions, with Barentz (+135K), with an increase from 233K Km2. 

In addition,  large increases in Kara (+53K),  Bering (+108K) and the SOO (+44K) were the other large winners.

The difference (between this year and last) seems to be the rapidly changing pressure patterns in the Arctic, having switched between  low pressure dominated for 2 - 3 weeks and then,  really without warning,  to a totally anticyclonic polar atmosphere. (and also vice versa)

Each of these 'switches' seems to have caused a slowdown in ice production. Followed, as per now, by several days during which ice formation was increased. 

 

Not sure what this will mean to the final end of year totals, but it sure is sparking my interest.

We currently seem to have a very full central Arctic,  but the outer areas are somewhat behind.

Temperatures have continued to yo yo in the Central Arctic, but at the moment are now moving upwards.

 

Unfortunately, at the moment this graph has not yet been updated for the change to 2023, but the data is now showing  increases...  

MIA        

 

Edited January 6, 2023 by Midlands Ice Age

[johncam]

On latest Masie , sea ice around Svalbard is almost non existant for mid Jan , wonder if it has been this low before?

[Turnedoutniceagain]

A poor ski season in the Alps

 

[mountain shadow]

46 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

A poor ski season in the Alps

 

Lack of snow in Western Europe sadly familiar.