Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere: Winter 22/23

[Aleman]

Widespread snows are expected imminently over Siberia so expect to see lots more pixels and significant temperature drops

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose des cartes de prévisions du modèle americain GFS

 

The 30%+ ice blockages in central and western Northwest Passage areas are down to 10% in places so it is now effectively open throughout with care. It's a bit later this year but it's a lottery with how the ice moves around. It is exceedingly busy with cruise liners, research vessels, icebreakers and cargo this year after a quiet couple of years due to slightly higher ice and Covid. 

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[Turnedoutniceagain]

On 02/09/2022 at 10:46, Aleman said:

Widespread snows are expected imminently over Siberia so expect to see lots more pixels and significant temperature drops

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose des cartes de prévisions du modèle americain GFS

 

The 30%+ ice blockages in central and western Northwest Passage areas are down to 10% in places so it is now effectively open throughout with care. It's a bit later this year but it's a lottery with how the ice moves around. It is exceedingly busy with cruise liners, research vessels, icebreakers and cargo this year after a quiet couple of years due to slightly higher ice and Covid. 

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Here it comes >>>

 

 

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

......and more

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Snow in Northern Russia is pre-empting the approaching autumn season.

News that fresh ice has been reported in the Nansen Straight (in the CAA) and also in the ice free zones North of Svalbard, is showing that the ice is already starting to reform.

DMI Arctic temperatures are now approaching my arbitrary level of 270K  (-3C) at which Ihave noticed over the years that ice starts to form widely.

  

So I did a quick look at Climate Reanalyser (GFS based) and found the following for today.

                      

Intersting in that it shows that the coldest air in the Arctic is asociated with the small high pressure cell currently situated North of Greenland and that this colder air is being drawn north and then eastwards towards Russia by the newly formed string of low pressures situated all along the Russian coastline.

Also it shows the effect of the diurnal cooling taking hold now that sunlight is almost non-existent.

Now the low pressure  can be double-edged as if we do not get a low pressure block inthe Bering Ocean we can pull very mild air into the North of Russia. (as happened in 2020)  OR conversley with a block over Bering we lose the warm flow and instead the cold air developing north of Greenland is pulled in by the lows into the Kara and Latev regions -   rapidly cooling the Arctic.

So looking ahead 3 days -

                

and the 'blocking' low  is still there and we are still cooling.

Looking ahead 10days -

                                    

and nothing too much has changed with the block still in place and minima continuing to fall.

The other interesting aspect is that the last 3 years have seen the reappearance of the string of Russian lows strung out  to the Eastern Arctic in autumn (with high pressure of the western Arctic).  These conditions were not nearly so prevalent in the 2010's.

So the first signs of snow and newly created ice are showing.

Will they continue to expand from here? 

I am quietly confident.

MIA 

 

Edited September 4, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Wheezer]

Chukchi still in a rapid summer decline 

 

 

[Aleman]

Unusually warm temperatures along the Alaskan coast (eastern Chukchi) in recent days are expected to drop off imminently, from highs around 15C+ to around 5C+.  In central areas of the Northwest Passage (Canadian Archipelago), highs are expected to drop from about  3C to -2C over the next week, after a few freezing days last week. Expect ice that feeds into the NWP on prevailing currents to stop melting and some sheltered bays to start to refreeze in calmer weather, especially under the influence of any snow.  After not fully opening enough to allow safe non-ice class passage, the NWP looks about to start closing up again for the winter. 5 pleasure craft have sneaked west after floes in central areas opened and closed behind them, they should all get through if floes along the Alaskan coast continue to melt and no strong northerlies arrive to push the main ice pack back down. Another several pleasure craft to the NE seem to be waiting for the central NWP floes to melt away. Even if they clear, expanding wintery weather will now present problems for safe passage. The vessel that was trapped in an isolated bay there by the same blocking floes has seen icebreaker activity that suggests a rescue. Numerous large cruise liners and commercial cargo and tanker vessels seem to have been getting through the relatively modest area of 10-30% ice with care, occasionally with icebreaker assistance. Freezing rain and snow could be problem for them from here and a nightmare for small pleasure craft. It's time to vacate again as risk increases. More polar areas are already seeing ice expand again. You can see the effect a little if you step this DMI link backwards and forwards a day at a time. Note how open sea north of Greenland fills in, probably recovering the world's most northern landmasses for another 11 months as ice can get pushed over them. Ice in the Canadian islands is moving around more than melting. Also, ice has wrapped itself around Svalbard again and is approaching the Russian coast further east. There is stlll ice melting out in Northern Hudson Bay areas but even they will see wintery temperatures soon.

DMI Modelled ice thickness

OCEAN.DMI.DK

Kaffeklubben Island - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

 

Edited September 5, 2022 by Aleman

[damianslaw]

On 01/09/2022 at 17:46, Don said:

Wow, somewhat different to 10 years ago!!

Summer 2012 brought a southerly tracking jet, so no wonder signficant melt season with high pressure over the Pole. This year we've had complete opposite an absence of heights over the Pole. Indeed the last 10 years has brought alot of blocking over the Pole and signficant ice loss.

We are not far off the melt season of 1995, some 27 years ago, and note tye similiarities with the synoptics of 1995 and 2022 including the cyclonic September after record warm August...

[Don]

54 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Summer 2012 brought a southerly tracking jet, so no wonder signficant melt season with high pressure over the Pole. This year we've had complete opposite an absence of heights over the Pole. Indeed the last 10 years has brought alot of blocking over the Pole and signficant ice loss.

We are not far off the melt season of 1995, some 27 years ago, and note tye similiarities with the synoptics of 1995 and 2022 including the cyclonic September after record warm August...

Indeed and hence why summer 2022 was ever so slightly different to 2012!!

Interesting that the melt season is similar to 1995, too.  However, although September has taken on a cyclonic look, I think (at this stage) it looks to be somewhat warmer than 1995, which had a CET of 13.6C, bang on the 61-90 average but somewhat below today's average.

[Aleman]

Snows looking a little ahead of normal:

Current Snow Cover | Canadian Cryospheric Information Network

CCIN.CA

A host of pleasure craft trying to get through the Northwest Passage to Alaska (after two years of Covid bans on such attempts) are currently being held up by NW winds gusting to 50mph at Amundsen Gulf and bearing light snow. That snow is expected to move east to the colder Canadian Islands in the next day or two where melt of sea ice seems to have already stopped. Settling snow on land might see temperatures drop a few more degrees and kick off the refreeze there when churn from this low has passed.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Aleman

[Aleman]

The Scandinavian high has seen northerlies across central Russia which has pushed the main ice pack closer to the coast and possibly started infilling with some recent snow there, beinning to close the Northern Route/Northeast Passage at the west end. It has not opened all summer at the east/ Siberian end and that also has started seeing snow that is likely to be doing some infilling of ice floes.

The Northwest Passage has fully opened yesterday to non-ice class vessels, having been cat and mouse for a couple of weeks. Now that small pleasure craft can get through without fear of wandering ice blockages, the weather has turned rather inhospitable, with snow coming in on northerlies that might also drag pack ice back down. The number completing  a transit (east to west) remains at 2, while 3 wait in the Amundsen Gulf for the northerlies and snow to ease. In the colder central areas of the Canadian Islands, the snowy low signals the change to cooling and possible slushy seas forming, as current daily temperatures are averaging around 0C but expected to drop to a daily average of -5C on the back of the low that will drag cold air across from Greenland. That cold and snow should start freezing the bays up again, creating hazardous conditions for the numerous pleasure craft still in the area who need to decide which way they are going to get out.  The NWP might have now opened but it's cold and icy enough that the door will start to swing closed again soon.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Aleman

[damianslaw]

4 hours ago, Aleman said:

The Scandinavian high has seen northerlies across central Russia which has pushed the main ice pack closer to the coast and possibly started infilling with some recent snow there, beinning to close the Northern Route/Northeast Passage at the west end. It has not opened all summer at the east/ Siberian end and that also has started seeing snow that is likely to be doing some infilling of ice floes.

The Northwest Passage has fully opened yesterday to non-ice class vessels, having been cat and mouse for a couple of weeks. Now that small pleasure craft can get through without fear of wandering ice blockages, the weather has turned rather inhospitable, with snow coming in on northerlies that might also drag pack ice back down. The number completing  a transit (east to west) remains at 2, while 3 wait in the Amundsen Gulf for the northerlies and snow to ease. In the colder central areas of the Canadian Islands, the snowy low signals the change to cooling and possible slushy seas forming, as current daily temperatures are averaging around 0C but expected to drop to a daily average of -5C on the back of the low that will drag cold air across from Greenland. That cold and snow should start freezing the bays up again, creating hazardous conditions for the numerous pleasure craft still in the area who need to decide which way they are going to get out.  The NWP might have now opened but it's cold and icy enough that the door will start to swing closed again soon.

Sounds like the start of an adventure thriller!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

Snow slowly increasing in Siberia and North America  -    Just about to prediction of the end of this week..

 

Sea Ice equally  is gradually approaching the minimum. Average date for the last 10 years is 10th -12th September. 

Todays Masie sea ice charts show that of the 12 sea areas with possible ice at this time of year 6 have increased , 2 remained the same, whilst just 4 reduced further, The net resut was a 16K gain today.

So far, the minimum (for Masie) was reached at 5,089KKm2 on sunday of this week.   

We are now neck and neck with last year, though minimum date was not reached until 14th Sept on Maisie that year.

The following charts are from the ASIF.

 Showing how close minimum sea ice now appears.

 

MIA

[summer blizzard]

It looks like we may have hit minimum for area and probably extent.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Lots of new Siberian snow >>

[Aleman]

Alert in northernmost Canada is probably the most northerly weather station to report regularly and it's been -10C there the last two nights. For a few weeks, the polar high has been weak or displaced and lows have tracked higher around the Arctic circle, with cloud and churned seas lifting the temperatures higher than average - either side of 0C at Alert. The ice melt season would have normally eased but has lasted a bit longer than normal after a slightly colder Arctic summer than normal. Ice levels that were tracking closer to long term averages through the summer months have dipped back towards lower levels again. The Northwest Passage had remained blocked but opened at the start of the month and is wide open to non-ice class vessels now.  The Northern Route/Northeast Passage Looks to have possibly only just opened belatedly in the last day or two. With all the churn of late from significant lows of late, both of these routes might close a bit later than recent years as well. That polar high looks to be building back a bit now, pushing lows further south,  and it's turning markedly colder so that should end the melt season except in isolated spots or unless there is a significant storm.

Alert, NU - 7 Day Forecast - Environment Canada

WEATHER.GC.CA

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Current conditions and forecasts including 7 day outlook, daily high/low temperature, warnings, chance of precipitation, pressure, humidity/wind chill (when applicable) historical data, normals, record values and...

Reports from the Northwest Passage showed there was ice reforming in Pasley Bay at the end of August in calm weather - but it was unusual in that it was a bay that had been filled up and blocked with ice floes in the prevailing wind, so the bay temperature would be colder than other open areas. Looking at temperatures of down to -7C expected this week along the NWP in Nunavut, bays beginning to freeze up again will become commonplace. The very high number of vessels touring the area this year, after a Covid ban for two years, all seem to be vacating. The smaller pleasure craft have gone since  sea spray at -7C can freeze onto small vessels and make them top-heavy, possibly toppling them. Only a few cruise liners and supply ships remain. They can handle light ice but will also soon be gone. The Arctic winter has returned after possibly the busiest tourist season on record.

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Edited September 13, 2022 by Aleman

[claret047]

It is good to see this thread up and running again. As MIA posted on the first page the loss of ice ceases about the middle of September. I like to think it is around my birthday, which was yesterday and believe it is also Mrs MIA's birthday too. Many Happy Returns to her David if that is the case.

This is one of my favourite threads on Netweather and many thanks to all who posts their views and observations on here,

Being totally unscientific I feel we will have a very average winter this year, perhaps a tad colder with one or two snowy outbreaks, but very little of anything down south as any cold spells will be from the North/Northwest rather than off the continent mainland or Scandinavia. 

Edited September 13, 2022 by claret047
typo

[HafrenLMP1]

Webcam - LNS Spitsbergen

WEATHERCAM.KYSTNOR.NO

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Webcam - LNS Spitsbergen

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

On 13/09/2022 at 11:02, claret047 said:

It is good to see this thread up and running again. As MIA posted on the first page the loss of ice ceases about the middle of September. I like to think it is around my birthday, which was yesterday and believe it is also Mrs MIA's birthday too. Many Happy Returns to her David if that is the case.

This is one of my favourite threads on Netweather and many thanks to all who posts their views and observations on here,

Being totally unscientific I feel we will have a very average winter this year, perhaps a tad colder with one or two snowy outbreaks, but very little of anything down south as any cold spells will be from the North/Northwest rather than off the continent mainland or Scandinavia. 

Thanks Dave (Claret047) for your birthday greetings... May I add belated greetings for yours also.

I have been away for a few day (4) at a golfing hotel without wifi so have only just returned and logged back on.

You are correct re the dates, and the reason I was away was because of Mrs MIA's birthday. I thought it would be a treat to do something different, and get away from home for a change. My medical condition means I am only just getting out and about again now - now that the risk from Covid is reducing.

However back to the NH snow and ice....

The snow is expected to fall widely in Siberia this weekend. It is also good to see the snow down to low levels in Svalbard (above) again. Thanks to Hafrent for showing it. It is always a fav webcam for me. 

This colder air will hit the UK this weekend as well. (no snow though!!)

Sea ice has not yet reached its minimum in extent  (mainly used to decide the actual lowest date), though the AREA measurement does seem to have reached its nadir.

I'll do a more detailed report tomorrow when I have had a chance to look at the data in detail..   

MIA

[Aleman]

The mild spell in the Northwest Passage as a couple of big lows went through is over and a little snow has settled on the back of them. Temperatures have plummetted and pleasure craft scarpered. Big supply and research ships have thinned out.  It's been a very busy summer. I've seen 5 pleasure craft get through east to west, playing cat and mouse with residual ice floes,  and seen reports of a couple going the other way earlier, though at least one of them was ice-class and they got past Alaska while there was ice there so expect both were. Ice was slow to clear this year but it's been a fairly clear sail for about two weeks and now looks very clear after the lows churned up what was left.  It might close a little late thanks to that but it has now turned very cold (-7C to -12C lows at Resolute) so I expect we'll see new ice among the islands of the Canadian Archipelago soon.

A high has rebuilt near the pole and lows pushed further south again so similar recent churning along the Russian Coast/Northern Route/Northeast Passage has eased. Calmer conditions, and again a little light snow on the edge of lows, might stop the main pack edge melting and allow the first ice formation in sheltered bays around Kara/Laptev (100 to120E), perhaps.

Resolute, NU - 7 Day Forecast - Environment Canada

WEATHER.GC.CA

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Edited September 16, 2022 by Aleman

[lottiekent]

On 03/09/2022 at 13:16, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Here it comes >>>

 

 

 

Have you got a link to the NOAA site please? My old book marked link won’t open and I can’t seem to find it when searching either 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

16 hours ago, lottiekent said:

Have you got a link to the NOAA site please? My old book marked link won’t open and I can’t seem to find it when searching either 

IMS Snow and Ice Charts (usicecenter.gov)

[Midlands Ice Age]

Snow is taking its time to settle in Siberia. Mainly because of the approach of ex Typhoon Merbok into the Bering Oceans, but is slowly extending. 

PS for these charts you must click on 'IMS snow and ice charts' button to see the charts, (for Lottie)

The ex typhoons  exact approach and path will be critical for the  Arctic snow and ice over the next couple of weeks.

Windys view is this (which looks particularly bad) -

 

If it 'elongates' north south it will produce colder air over the Russian Seas whilst tenperatures over northern Canada will be picking up warmth from further south.

If (as seems likely) it stops over the Bering Straits itself, and it fills there,  then we could see a delayed winter up there.

If it stops and elongates east west then colder east winds will sweep around the Eastern Arctic feeding from the colder air being being produced by the dominant anticyclone north of Greenland/Svalbard  which at this time of year is allowing the temps to fall in the final bits of twilight in the middle of the day. 

If it moves into Alaska itself then colder conditions will become dominant over the Eastern Arctic.

We are currently in a  very interesting position which could go either way in the next few days.. 

 

Temperatures in the wider Arctic have finally broken my 'imagined' theoretical 'refreeze starts' temp of 270K   (-3C).

Today Masie DMI shows the temperature above 80 degree lat,  has fallen to 269K for the first time,  having oscillated around 270K for  a week. (So I now expect re-freeze imminently!!) -

Throughout the last week temperatures have continued to drop over the Western Arctic, as the cold feed into the North Atlantic has prevailed from the Greenland high.

The Sea ice has been in a bit of a stasis for the last week, with Jaxa still showing falls, but NSIDC are showing that area has risen for the last 4 days, and probably has seen the minimum.

It is thought that is ice forming in the Central western Arctic, but that 'compaction' is occuring in the Russian waters which will have  led to increased area numbers, at the expense of the extent numbers...  

Currently Jaxa is showing that the sea ice is in 10th position in the last 40'odd years, whereas NSIDC has it in 11th or 12th in the similar period.

Masie extent data  (NSIDC for naval personnel, ships,etc) - which tends to be  more adjusted by human interpretation - is still showing falls,  but is not yet less than the 2021 minimum.

All in all the official end of the melt season has not yet been called,  and if this goes beyond the 21st Sept, then  it will be a modern record late date. 

Next week will be critical.

MIA.   

Edited September 17, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Wheezer]

Bering and Chukchi were essentially cleaned of nearly all ice with the remnant typhoon leftovers.  

[Midlands Ice Age]

More extensive snowfall now being shown in Siberia and Northen Russia.

        yesterday        

Seems as though it is because of ex-Merbok which has centred just north of the Bering Straits  (in Chuckchi) and is now rapidly filling together with aligning itself more east / west along the Alaskan northern coastline.

This is preventing the warmest of the conditions it is bringing with it being drawn into the Arctic Basin. Instead it is meaning a more northeasterly flow across the Russian Arctic ocean space, pushing colder Arctic air southwards into North and Central Russia. 

It also seems to be drawing the anticyclone (centred over the western Arctic for over a week now), to be drawn into the central Arctic area,  including pushing into northern Chukchi.  This is in turn  eventually pulling the colder Greenland air  westwards on its southern flank towards Alaska (and also possibly towards Russia (see below))

Today Jaxa recorded a sea ice increase of 30K Km2 in extent. Believe it or not,  this seems to be related to the colder air entering northern Chiukchi under the high pressure. 

So, yesterday could have been the minimum for extent sea ice. Will it last?

 

            

 

            

So, yesterday could have been the minimum for extent sea ice. Will it last?

That is very difficult to call.

Yet another ex Typhoon Nonmadol - (moving across Japan currently) is now threatening to enter the Bering area over the next few days. Howevr, I am more optimistic for the Arctic's snow and ice with this second one .           I rate the chances as about 70;30 in favour of a good outlook for the snow and ice.

Why more positive? -

1) the remnants of Morbek will enable/develop a trough in front of the upcoming new typhoon and this will push the airflows in front of it into more of an easterly flow rather than a southerly. This will stop the warm air accessing the Arctic.

2) The colder push from the Arctic high will by then be impacting the Siberian area.

This will enable  the air to turn much colder in the eastern Arctic  and N Russia after the passage of Nonmadol to the east.

 

The Climate Reanalyser charts are show below to illustrate the effect - 

3day charts for min and average (together with SLP) 

              

 

and the 5 day charts -

              

Its track will once again be subject to speculation, but it loooks quite positive atm .

MIA

Edited September 19, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age