Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere: Winter 22/23

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

On 21/09/2022 at 01:22, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I've been closely watching the modelled snowfall across Siberia / Eurasia, by the end of September / first week of October the current outputs look amazing and quite rare I'd suggest with such a widespread covering at such an early stage 

The site I use for the archived snow charts goes back to 1998 here's the charts for 30th September which is the furthest the current ECM goes and I'll compare the most recent outlooks from GFS and ECM too

         

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

Consistent outputs in this range, latest modelled snowfall 

 

 Not as much as had been modelled though still pretty substantial buildup as we head into October which Judah Cohen says it's connected to the increase during October and the potential Stratospheric warming activity... let's see how the buildup progresses

[Aleman]

Zoom in and see bays freezing over as ice starts to grow out from Russian coastal areas towards the main pack. The temperature map hints at where it is happening without having to zoom in as much. Snow landing on the white areas might settle if it is heavy or there is no wind after - or it might melt but quickly refreeze if the temperature drops.

 

Edited October 3, 2022 by Aleman

[Aleman]

Another source is showing some of the sea ice climatereanalyser had growing from coastal edges a few days back after snows. Ice has started to build out from both the Siberian Coast and Alaskan Coast.

NWS Alaska Sea Ice Program (ASIP)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV

 

[Aleman]

Snow extent is off to a flying start this year. It's already reached 1/4 of its normal winter peak.

 

[Aleman]

This highlights some good progress in the last week.

 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

The NH winter continues at pace

[Aleman]

One by one, other sources have been coming into line with the sparse new ice seen growing out from coastlines by climatereanalyser 11 days ago after heavy snows started. I'm putting the slower reaction down to differences in how their algorithms pick up grease ice and snow slush before further snows add enough fresh water that it eventually freezes solid. It's appearing in the areas hinted at by temperature maps, too.

It's now become so cold that open sea will start to freeze up in peripheral areas even without snow. It was a much colder -24.0C at Eureka yesterday and similar over the central main ice pack on the Russian side of the North Pole. It was -10C around edges of the main ice pack. There is still snow in forecasts, though, too, so sea ice expansion looks like it's about to step up a gear.

 

 

 

Edited October 6, 2022 by Aleman

[Midlands Ice Age]

Thanks to Aleman for keeping us up to date.

Snow has been falling widely in the NH as he has reported above.

Large amounts have now fallen on the frozen ice pack 

See the CR Snow and SLP chart below - 

  

Let us see if Aleman's theory is correct and that the falling snow into near freezing ocean will kick start the ice freeze. 

Up to now, sea ice refreeze has been very steady, rather than remarkable. It is still within 100k Km2 of last years refreeze and NSIDC Masie has shown gains of 120K Km2  (first century of the season), 72K KM2 and today 53K Km2 after a weekend of almost static growth. 

At the same time the temperature according to Masie dmi has dropped rapidly.

 

So sea ice increasing as the temperature drops quickly again!!! The latest drop is now down to above 80 latitude average of 263.4K  (-10C), after a fall of 2.3C in the last 2 days.

As stated above this is the average temperature, and out on the ice cap this represents temperatures of -20C at night (soon to become permanent) and a max of aorund -8C at best during the twilight hours. The areas around the edge of the ice cap are currently (over water) are still a low of -10C and a high of -2C.

 Looking at the current forecast we see a new deptression over Eastern Siberia (see above chart) is expected to join up with the persistent polar low to produce a major Chuckchi depression. At the moment the low is east and west sloping so is not allowing the warmer air to the south to enter the Arctic.  We will see if it has a major impact on the Arctic ice, but more Arctic wide snowfall can be expected.

          

 

Further out,  the Arctic (10days forecasts) the low  area becomes slacker and the Arctic temperature falls steadily -

             

Looks like we are setting up the Polar vortex.....

MIA

Edited October 6, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Norrance]

Have seen a few reports on tv today that Greenland has just had its warmest ever September with temperatures averaging 8C above normal for the month. Just wondering what if any impact this will have on the weather here as we head towards Winter?

[Don]

Just now, Norrance said:

Have seen a few reports on tv today that Greenland has just had its warmest ever September with temperatures averaging 8C above normal for the month. Just wondering what if any impact this will have on the weather here as we head towards Winter?

Chance of higher pressure over Greenland if it stays warmer than average?!  No idea!

[Mixer 85]

1 hour ago, Norrance said:

Have seen a few reports on tv today that Greenland has just had its warmest ever September with temperatures averaging 8C above normal for the month. Just wondering what if any impact this will have on the weather here as we head towards Winter?

Copernicus stated that temperatures had reached 8C above average in places. I believe this was due to a number of strong lows which drew up relatively warm air over Greenland.

Interestingly this resulted in a record SMB gain of 10GT on Sep 24th. (not reported by Copernicus or media)

 

[Beanz]

What is surface mass balance, or what does it mean in the context of this discussion?  Genuinely interested

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

11 hours ago, Beanz said:

What is surface mass balance, or what does it mean in the context of this discussion?  Genuinely interested

Total Mass Balance determines the ‘health’ of the glacier which showed a decline in the noughties until 2012.  However it is gaining again since and this Surface Mass Balance is part of that process.  More snow gain than loss adds to the glacier as it compacts down thus improving the TMB.  
 

note the decline 2000 -2012 but the upward trend since.  This year is doing well so should continue the upward trend.

BMB - Basal Mass Balance

MMB - Marine Mass Balance

 

 

BFTP

Edited October 8, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Midlands Ice Age]

 

10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Total Mass Balance determines the ‘health’ of the glacier which showed a decline in the noughties until 2012.  However it is gaining again since and this Surface Mass Balance is part of that process.  More snow gain than loss adds to the glacier as it compacts down thus improving the TMB.  

 

BFTP

SMB  - Surface Mass Balance

I believe it is measured by satellite from  the gravitational deflection from the Greenland Ice sheets.

More ice  the greater the deflection.

It is a 'proxy' for the changes in melt and snowfall, and shows whether or not melting or icing is taking place.. 

These days it is mainly reported on the media when a very warm spell has resulted in a negative balance.

However the last few years it has not changed much, as per the graphs above.

MIA

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[ANYWEATHER]

13 hours ago, Norrance said:

Have seen a few reports on tv today that Greenland has just had its warmest ever September with temperatures averaging 8C above normal for the month. Just wondering what if any impact this will have on the weather here as we head towards Winter?

Greenland and Iceland have recorded there coldest Summer on record. Although I hate the term "records"  as temperatures have always been colder and warmer over the millenia long before so called records were written down......

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just a quick update on today...

Jaxa has recorded a slight 'negative'  for the extent of yesterday about 800 KM2.

Seems as though the swell and waves from the deepened depression in Chukchi are having some effect in preventing ice formation.

Howver it might be expeected that it will reduce the SST's somewhat as the air is still cold.

           

 

MIA

 

PS i do not know why I keep getting an 'extra' chart attached to my postings...

I'm deleting it again now....

      Darn it I failed again!!!!!!

Edited October 8, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age
Mods - please delete this post.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Just a quick update on today...

Jaxa has recorded a slight 'negative'  for the extent of yesterday about 800 KM2.

Seems as though the swell and waves from the deepened depression in Chukchi are having some effect in preventing ice formation.

Howver it might be expeected that it will reduce the SST's somewhat as the air is still cold.

           

 

MIA

It worked this time!! -but on a 'new' post I'll delete the orig now.

 

Edited October 8, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Norrance]

44 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Greenland and Iceland have recorded there coldest Summer on record. Although I hate the term "records"  as temperatures have always been colder and warmer over the millenia long before so called records were written down......

The question was will this have any impact here as we head towards Winter!

[Mixer 85]

3 hours ago, Norrance said:

The question was will this have any impact here as we head towards Winter!

I’m by no means qualified to give a definitive answer but my guess is that it’s unlikely to have an effect going forward as the higher than average temperatures in September were simply caused by weather and pressure patterns. The overall state of the ice sheet remains largely the same. 
 

[ANYWEATHER]

9 hours ago, Norrance said:

The question was will this have any impact here as we head towards Winter!

Depends on Global Oscillations!  Who really knows.? Again in a La Nina year...will it make a difference?  We shall see. Increasing Ice at both Poles will Skew modern day computer models... indeed  if the wind blows from the  Artic this year towards the UK , we can expect some

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Norway has pixels now. We should start to see snow on the Urals soon as Winter spreads West from Siberia 

 

[damianslaw]

4 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Norway has pixels now. We should start to see snow on the Urals soon as Winter spreads West from Siberia 

 

Always thought snowfall over Scandi is a barometer as well.. 

[Don]

5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Always thought snowfall over Scandi is a barometer as well.. 

Yes I believe it is.  Eurasian snow progress was slow in October 2009 but built rapidly over Scandinavia.

Edited October 10, 2022 by Don

[Aleman]

This one is a bit odd. Ice has appeared in the warm area of NW Alaska/East Bering. Maybe a scattered bit of the main ice pack has blown that way and built up at the coast? I've been hunting for webcams to shed more light but could find none.

 

[Northernlights]

8 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Always thought snowfall over Scandi is a barometer as well.. 

This is probably why I saw a flock of 17  Whooper Swans  flying over heading SW last week Quite early for such numbers. Always think they are harbingers of winter.