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Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere: Winter 22/23


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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL

👀🌨️ Super interesting, here are the images within the tweet to view them easier 20221010_185838.thumb.jpg.1954efc633a678507e0dc02f8b4a84f9.jpg20221010_185841.thumb.jpg.0bc5a78845e5c52ff3a0439a8352f231.jpg

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
3 hours ago, Aleman said:

This one is a bit odd. Ice has appeared in the warm area of NW Alaska/East Bering. Maybe a scattered bit of the main ice pack has blown that way and built up at the coast? I've been hunting for webcams to shed more light but could find none.

20221009180000_WIS41SD_0012304223.gif

 

Just seen traces of this ice on Masie (NSIDC) also now  -

1238214195_Screenshot2022-10-1020_21_56.thumb.png.80d5ed0e0a71b636c05c0d2e63787c0d.png 

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also the ice off the Russian coastline is now expanding -

6eo4v49lfxogh8t?preserve_transparency=Fa
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Snowfall in Norway can be expected soon, as the low which has brought the heavy snow to Iceland in the last 24hors, transfers to the east. 

 

Ice extent is now recovering from the pounding it received from the low which hit Chukchi at the end of last week.

Masie (NSIDC) has recorded changes of -38K, -39K,  +61K and +70K over the last few days, as the conditions start to calm down again.

The Chuckchi low has meant that we have fallen away again against last year's extent figure but still, now conditions are more favorable, we should have a spell of good ice production in the Arctic as the average temperatures have now dropped to 263K.

image.thumb.png.b6976505ea30d1dc37cb5184b0f50cae.png        image.thumb.png.b490c750ff650ab3ac50ad1ea57f5999.png

IN general the arctic climate is now dominated by circling low pressure zones around the Greenland high.

image.thumb.png.3c5ef0528495c8890e9ece52cccc06e3.png

Not sure what will happen next?   Possibly full blown polar Vortex? 

If so -  a very early visitor.

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

IN general the arctic climate is now dominated by circling low pressure zones around the Greenland high.

image.thumb.png.3c5ef0528495c8890e9ece52cccc06e3.png

Not sure what will happen next?   Possibly full blown polar Vortex? 

If so -  a very early visitor.

MIA

Hopefully it will burn itself out come winter, rather than ramp up to turbo charged levels like last year and 2019/20.....

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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
On 10/10/2022 at 08:27, damianslaw said:

Always thought snowfall over Scandi is a barometer as well.. 

I do rate this highly, more than just the typical advance of snow across Russia/Siberia through October. 

If we take a look at snowfall across Russia and Scandinavia in the Octobers preceding the colder winters we've had since 2009, there is definitely a trend there regarding Scandinavian snow cover and the weather we experience. For this post I will focus on snow cover charts from 10th October each year, posting three charts dated 10th, 20th, and 31st October to see the extent of snow cover in Scandinavia. Although I said I rate this more highly than the typical advance of snow across Siberia, a RAPID advance coinciding with snow cover in Scandinavia does seem to occur in my opinion (although do correct me if you think otherwise!!). This will also be detailed.

1) October 2009

DownloadArchive?prd=5510102009DownloadArchive?prd=5510202009DownloadArchive?prd=5510312009

By this date in 2009 we had a decent amount of snow in Scandi, which stayed put ten days later. This was arguably followed by a rapid advance of snow towards W Russia up to the end of the month that year. Tick?

2) October 2010

DownloadArchive?prd=5510102010DownloadArchive?prd=5510202010DownloadArchive?prd=5510312010

10th October had zero(!) snow in Scandinavia, but patches began to appear a few days later. There was no rapid advance in 2010, but snow did appear and stick around above 60N as did the snow in Scandi albeit less impressive than 2009. Tick? A less convincing one maybe but still scope for agreement.

3) October 2012

DownloadArchive?prd=5510102012DownloadArchive?prd=5510202012DownloadArchive?prd=5510312012

10th October 2012 again had zero snow in Scandi, away from higher parts of Norway that is, but some did appear before the 20th. Then by the end of the month, we had seen possibly one of the fastest advances of snow on record through Russia and almost all of Scandi too. Another less convincing tick for Scandi but a huge tick for rapid advance.

These three genuine cold winters did share common factors of rapid advance of snow cover, at least some snow in Scandi, or a slight combination of both. There are exceptions to the rule of course as October 2013 had similar outcomes but we know what happened that winter! This is also far from an exact science as we know, but there is definitely some sort of link with colder winters here to my untrained amateur eye. Things like la nina, QBO, etc have their own effect in varying capacities in different winters, so it's hard to give definitive answers...

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

-26C at Eureka (Northern Canadian Archipelago) last night. Ice is filling in those islands steadily now, which is not surprising with the recent drop in temperatures. I'd wondered about light ice showing after snows in Northeast Hudson Bay/Foxe Basin on climatereanalyser because the sea temperature looked much too warm but Canada's Sea ice Service is now backing it up even though it still looks a slightly too warm. There is also a little new ice around the islands at the Northwest inlet. This seems to be slightly early this year. Again, could it be something to do with the heavy snows in recent weeks?

 

gfs_nh-sat1_sst_1-day.pnggfs_nh-sat1_seaice-snowc-topo_1-day.png20221010180000_WIS54CT_0012306619.gif20221011180000_WIS32CT_0012306913.gif

 

(Edit - once again, my images are linking with those of a previous poster when I click back on them - technical glitch?)

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

We *could* see a sudden plunge of cold air across Scandi and NW Russia by this time next week if the GFS is anything to go by, so by then we should see a more significant advance of snow West. We’ll see what happens!

 

0AEF6448-4F04-40DA-8DF1-0DCB51968878.thumb.png.ee952873860e2dfc76d3c08cc61759b4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

New ice growth at 64 degrees North in Russia (south of Bering Straight) seems early but there is snow right to the coastline there. It might be heavy snow that melts away again, though it was -30C last night not all that far west of there - about where it says 65N in the image..

CT.jpg

 

 

 

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Following on from yesterdays 264K Km2 increase we have another double century 204K Km2  increase by the NSIDC today.

This further reduces the gap on 2021 and illustrates  what a powerful refreeze we are now seeing.

image.thumb.png.a90de47374ad9f2aa12b767cf6aa0f3d.png

This rapid refreeze was suggested by me as the impacts of the powerful storm over Chuckchi at the end of last  week dimished and it started to fill.

So what has caused this rapid refreeze?

The temperatures have remained almost static over the last few days,  

image.thumb.png.a065356dd1c3402eb54406b5c1ac3ed2.png

So a direct realtionship of ice growth with temperature is not the major factor.

Today's increases have been led by Laptev (+51K) and the CAA(+43K)  but the freeze is more general than that showed yesterday.

73zlmpzezhl2wfq?preserve_transparency=Fa
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and for the CAA -

m9rsaw197q6jyho?preserve_transparency=Fa
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The second shot shows an increase of (+2K) in Hudson (extreme north)  as well as Baffin (+7K).

The first image shows general increases in Beaufort (+15K), Chuckchi(+13K), ESS(+22K) and also Kara (+19K), as well as those in Laptev.  

So if temperature does not appear to be the major driver of this increase then what is it?

Aleman's thoery (extreme snowfall) on the ocean cannot be ruled out, but it looks to me as if the main factor has been that of the very cold strong winds which would initially cause the ice to migrate and compress , but would then rapidly reduce the surface temperature of the ocean (SST).

The CR chart below shows how the SST's have changed with much freezing in the colder ocean areas.

image.thumb.png.ec826e126eb622f277ab95a9173046b6.png  

Over on the Model output discussion thread Cambrian has posted a very interesting post on the upcoming pressure changes within  the Arctic.

At the moment we are still dominated by low pressure. 

He foresees that this will migrate to one dominated by high pressure with low pressure being pushed into Russia,

This first month of refreeze has been very interesting. The changes above will make it even more so, as we move into deeper and deeper Arctic winter.

MIA

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

One has to remember that the sea does not freeze at -2C but snow landing is less dense and will only melt slowly or not at all. A light snow will prime the sea with a cold freshwater layer at the top that is less dense than brine, and a heavy snow will from a slush and then even build up to form a "dry" top layer. I think a widespread snow will sometimes cover an area that is getting close to freezing and then cause a flash freeze over that area. An area covered by slush will not show as ice in some models but can be seen on temperature maps as it stops upwelling of warmer water from underneath, accelerating the freeze process. When snowy depressions clear away, clear skies can then see a slushy area that has stopped upwelling flash freeze. This is not the only freezing mechanism  - as sometimes there is no snow - but I  expect heavy snow will sometimes help sea ice growth kick off or cause a spurt in the figures.

I see the arm of the main ice pack has made contact with the ice growing out from Siberia (at 170East).

gfsnh-16-6.png

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Another OVER double century increase sees Maise (NSIDC)  overtake 2021 figure for this date.

A gain of +246K Km2 in extent with once again the emphasis on the Russian Oceans refreezing,.

image.thumb.png.6c50abbf2d3928ca7e6f05c9495c7da4.png

The  recent freeze has  now taken on momentum.

Thanks Aleman for the above explanation, It looks as though you may have a valid position loooking at the refreeze taking place.

Todays charts show large increases in the ESS (+80K) with next door Laptev at (+40K) having made the link to the coastline, which effectively closes the North passage around Russia,

 By way of interest we may well also see a second link up with the coastline in ESS in the next couple of days. It seems as though the coastline ice is acting as an 'attractor'  for the main ice pack,  as this is also occuring in Beaufort (+20K) branching out towards Alaskan coastal ice. Meanwhile Chukchi just fills in insitu(+35K).

Also Kara is now building along the coastline (with over 50K Km2 now), building westwards on the Russian front.

In the western Arctic,  Greenland (+2K) is slowly filling in around the coastline quite a way south now, and Baffin (+19K) is completing the filling of the Fram Strait and also down the other side of Greenland.

The CAA (+22K) is intent on closing off the North West passage and is also calling on the support from Hudson (+2K). 

image.thumb.png.528f4a340e4e5b07aee195f3ec40f0bb.png       Use click and zoom for more detail,  but I have provided a seperate graph for the Russian sectors.  

120avzbe737kjjq?preserve_transparency=Fa
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Also, I have been asked to provide more historical links for the ice extent growth showing more years...

The main site for looking at this data is the Arctic Sea Ice Forum which I acknowledge for the data I show of theirs.

They mainly use the Jaxa (Japanese satellites) ice service, and I will provide  a data table from there which shows the position this year in relationhip to most years this century.

image.thumb.png.1296a1106fec48b1c0dd5a788e4da5d8.png     and   image.thumb.png.d7369838750f902c9a1ea8474943cd23.png 

There is generally a small difference between NSIDC and Jaxa, though this is mainly in the summer and it diminishes as the refreeze takes hold..

 

NSIDC data can be graphed at 

 Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis (nsidc.org)

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/ 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Something else....

Or am I incorrect...??

It would seem as if a 'passageway' thru the ice has been created in the northern Russian ocean. (see below)

Russia is now reported to have as many as 20 nuclear powered icebreakers or ice capable large vessels now keeping the passageway open as long as possible...... could the chart show them in action?  If so, how long will they be able to keep it open? 

 MIA

 

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

MIA - Icebreakers don't keep passageways open - they just get themselves and other ice class ships through where they otherwise could not go. They break and slightly disperse ice to leave a trail that refreezes behind them within hours. Even if each icebreaker were 10 miles wide, their wake would soon be ice again and would not show open water on charts/images. They do not keep anything open because it is quickly frozen again behind as a patchwork of new thin ice and broken thick ice - all mixed up in hazardous fashion. 

At this time of year, newer ice areas forming are snow slush or grease ice/frazil/nilas/shuga (non-snow formed ices). These are like sailing through differing grades of treacle before they eventually freeze into the hard stuff and so are not just open or closed as such. Such treacley areas don't always appear on ice charts but can slow a small vessel from 20 knots to 2, making it difficult to evade/outrun hazardous or colder weather, threatening fuel reserves and potentially leave a vessel trapped in solidifying ice.  Slush and frazil can make a route impassable to small vessels even though not actually showing as ice until perhaps it thickens and hardens a few days later.

ia13719.1200x630.jpg
WWW.ANTARCTICA.GOV.AU

Learn about the different stages of sea ice development.

I don't think anyone calls it the North Passage. It's known as the Northern Route or Northeast Passage. It's already likely been effectively closed for about 3 weeks at 110 degrees East, only a couple of weeks after it reluctantly opened at 170 East this year. It was only during this brief period that I saw any pleasure craft going through. There are still lots of vessels going through now but they are large commercial ice class vessels  - cargo ships, tankers, barges and indeed icebreakers - that will only be slowed a little by slush and frazil, or even thin new ice.

WWW.MARINETRAFFIC.COM

MarineTraffic Live Ships Map. Discover information and vessel positions for vessels around the world. Search the MarineTraffic ships database of more than 550000 active and decommissioned vessels. Search for...

 

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

After significant settled snow down from Nunavut down to the Great Lakes, climatereanalyser is showing light ice along coastal areas of North Hudson Bay proper. I'm guessing that, absent any milder weather soon, this will be a precurser to the first significant charted ice advances there in coming days, as measured by other sources/algorithms.

gfs_nh-sat8_seaice-snowc-topo_1-day.png

A few more little bits of coastal ice appearing down Russian and Alaska into the Bering Sea now. Is this earlier than the recent normal? It feels early to me. Could be wrong. It is only little bits though and could be heavy snow that will melt back again rather than the onset of hard pack ice that will be sustained and advance. We shall see.

 

 

Edited by Aleman
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Thanks again Aleman.

I think I described the 'Northen' passage as over the top of Russia -  should have been the NorthEast passage.

The routes via Canada are indeed the North West passage.

In Russian waters  they were still escorting 4 large vessels in Kara (come out of Arkhangelsk) a couple of weeks ago around the top of Russia, and they were tryng to get them through the Laptev ice refreeze/developments  before it  closed in. The Russians as you suggest are trying to keep the route open for all but the middle of the winter season for large ships.

They must have been successful - but they had concerns at the time.

 

Anyway,   another day of ice freezing has been recorded. This time it seems to be more of a consolidation ,  back to a more normal increase of 104K Km2 acccording to Maisie.

image.thumb.png.97f713adc4c35d5e432e27e6a8e9744d.png

My first point is that this smaller ice increase is despite a large drop in Maise DMI temperature of about 3C in the last 36hours..

Again this was as predicted - more proof that the temperature is dependent upon the extent of ice, (and the rapid cooling then taking place)   rather than the temperature controlling the extent and area  of the ice. 

image.thumb.png.ac343604349f172007d34f1ec5273647.png

 

As suggested yesterday the main Arctic ice field did not take long to connect to the coastal Russian ice in the ESS..

image.thumb.png.55d0ca0758f60980e92f70b6ac294264.png    and its extent this year image.thumb.png.8897ee72f38b0a7f2675b4f8d1b62ed1.png   

 

The Russian seas are leading the extent improvements at the moment. 

Laptev 

image.thumb.png.22e99ecde09b6feed310cb07701b4537.png      and particularlyimage.thumb.png.8c82fdc2c0e9531065fa35e3f0a445e4.png 

Chuckchi

image.thumb.png.51f00476837662610960f4323a592742.png  and  image.thumb.png.88cda61131314d96cf48fb33cce63cb8.png

Beaufort  (Alaska mainly)

image.thumb.png.aedb6a215e54ff90d861c6775ed27df1.png       and     image.thumb.png.5438fc4fa3e5c466bcffbeba5e970d04.png

 

 

Whilst in the Western based Arctic,   the CAA, Hudson and Baffin Oceans are around the average for the time of year. (between them)

image.thumb.png.f7c186219e1359fe251040963798f540.png  image.thumb.png.c069a09daffeeead64acf87cc5d7f81b.pngimage.thumb.png.81ab40949718cb1c97a2c9808b482aab.png

All for today...

Looking forward next, to seeing the Beaufort linking up to the Alaskan coastal ice..

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
6 hours ago, Aleman said:

After significant settled snow down from Nunavut down to the Great Lakes, climatereanalyser is showing light ice along coastal areas of North Hudson Bay proper. I'm guessing that, absent any milder weather soon, this will be a precurser to the first significant charted ice advances there in coming days, as measured by other sources/algorithms.

gfs_nh-sat8_seaice-snowc-topo_1-day.png

 

 

 

Masie shows the scattered outbreaks of new ice in the North of Hudson Bay.

https://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/latest/4km/masie_all_r10_4km.png 

image.thumb.png.3f36b107eb622f8de6786cf661b97da2.png

 

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

Following on from widespread snow across central and eastern Canada, the Canadian Archipelago seems to have seen a mini flash freeze and the surface temperature across northern Hudson Bay has dipped a bit. Presumably, snow has formed a freshwater slush that is is stopping warmer but denser saltwater upwelling from underneath - and the coldest areas (no upwelling) around coastal edges are now freezing solid.

20221018180000_WIS32CT_0012316659.gifgfs_nh-sat1_seaice-snowc-topo_1-day.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

Another double century  break (+212K Km2) today,  (5th so far this season), takes the Masie extent total to 7,000 K Km2.

This up by 2400K Km2 since the minimum 1month ago.

We are now entering the maximum  rate increase of the year,which lasts for about 1 month.

image.thumb.png.21101ee89381c6ba297f11489a1371da.png

CAA (+47K) and Baffin (+18K) again sealed the North west passage.

There was also new sea icing in Barents(+8K) and the Bering Ocean (+5K) - which showed coastal ice formation on both sides of  the sea.

Chukchi (+21K), and paricularly,  the ESS (+41K) continued to grow and interestingly surrounded the Wrangle Island only a couple of days after Attenborough identified the lack of ice around the area as a reason for polar bear problems. I can now just imagine them all diving into the ocean  to feast on the seals drifting past on the ice!!!!. 

Laptev (+30K) continues towards being full a month early, whilst next door Kara (+14K) starts its refreeze. 

Greenland (+30K) continues to build.  

image.thumb.png.ada8ac4e26d91b56541f6e4ed0a6d996.png

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
On 10/10/2022 at 19:03, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

👀🌨️ Super interesting, here are the images within the tweet to view them easier 20221010_185838.thumb.jpg.1954efc633a678507e0dc02f8b4a84f9.jpg20221010_185841.thumb.jpg.0bc5a78845e5c52ff3a0439a8352f231.jpg

 

 

Very similar ❄️🥶Screenshot_20221020_061742.thumb.jpg.c74613e92ab2c14d6f5eeea4f7b7c139.jpg20221020_061755.thumb.jpg.dab7e90cf1522642672df71abcba9109.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

N. Hemisphere sea ice is building well at the moment but snow extent has fallen back. Significant snow is expected down the Rockies, possibly to the Mexican border this weekend, though, so that might get it back on track.

nh_sce.pnggfsnh-16-102.png?12

 

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