Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere: Winter 22/23

[SteveB]

46 minutes ago, Seasonal Trim said:

Used to love this thread in my early days on this forum. Until I realised that snows progress across Europe doesn't matter a jot to what happens on our tiny Island of the edge of the Atlantic.

Seen a fast growth, slow growth, growth right up to the border of France and growth in every direction. 

But nothing that indicates whether we're gonna get anything for us.

Such a shame.

Still a good thread though.  Never get tired of seeing snow and ice . 

Love the twitter thread too

[johncam]

48 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Still a good thread though.  Never get tired of seeing snow and ice . 

Love the twitter thread too

Hi Steve , do you have a link to the twitter thread ?

[SteveB]

43 minutes ago, johncam said:

Hi Steve , do you have a link to the twitter thread ?

It must be buried somewhere in the forum. Maybe a new one will be created!

[johncam]

Cheers Steve 

[Lightfox]

Winter is coming and it is coming for us all

Seems like life on midgard (Earth) is a Game of Thrones story lately  

 

Edited October 29, 2022 by LightningFox92

[Aleman]

After a bit of a pause, North American areas are moving again.  The recent snows look to have set up Northern Hudson Bay for good advances as the sea surface temperature has dipped to near zero or lower across much of the north and some slushy stuff looks to be starting to show. Big snows are modelled for this week right down to the Mexican border again. The last lot not did not stick much but Hudson now looks well-primed and it looks cold enough that most of Canada might be white when next week is done.  North America seems to be doing much better this year on the whole, though it's only back to average after some poorer years and weather systems dropping lots of early snow don't necessarily correlate with sustained snows and cold through the season. This is more weather than climate. (Snows seem to be starting and finishing earlier in recent years - why?) Bering is seeing coastal see ice stick now.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Aleman said:

After a bit of a pause, North American areas are moving again.  The recent snows look to have set up Northern Hudson Bay for good advances as the sea surface temperature has dipped to near zero or lower across much of the north and some slushy stuff looks to be starting to show. Big snows are modelled for this week right down to the Mexican border again. The last lot not did not stick much but Hudson now looks well-primed and it looks cold enough that most of Canada might be white when next week is done.  North America seems to be doing much better this year on the whole, though it's only back to average after some poorer years and weather systems dropping lots of early snow don't necessarily correlate with sustained snows and cold through the season. This is more weather than climate. (Snows seem to be starting and finishing earlier in recent years - why?) Bering is seeing coastal see ice stick now.

 

Nice post Aleman..

Two things this morning before I go out...

First is a visual (gif) of the snow and ice progress this week (consistent growth in Asian areas)

https://usicecenter.gov/current/ims20221029euasia-7ani.gif 

....And news from the ASIF of the huge sea ice extent gains this week.

Apparently, and graphed here ...JAXA has seen an increase of 1.2M Km2 in just 7 days..... and here

       Thanks to the ASIF

 

....with a rate of increase that exceeds those in the 2000 decade.

Also can I repeat again - look at the drops that occured when the weather was changing in the last month... I find that more 'telling' than the good ice growth which I predicted for the week in perfect conditions..

The NSIDC (Maise) charts show the same,

This means that sea ice for JAXA has now moved above 2021 and is now 11th highest in the last 16 years.

Charts below for comparison -

NSIDC shows that today ice growth has stalled somewhat in the North Americas,, but is still moving ahead in the Russian sector, with Laptev virtually filling in overnight , and the pack ice bursting out  towards the Severnya Islands in Kara, (as well as moving out from coastal areas).. Kara is also looking set for a flash freeze. .

Back later with a look at temperatures in the Arctic and a more general weather related chat about the Arctic and its weather patterns..

 MIA

  

Edited October 30, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Back again as promised.

Masie has updated with a +148KKm2 increase today, Just -20K KM2 below last year. I expect it to go ahead shortly.

        

 

The large increases in sea ice seem to have been occuring on days when the temperatures have not been falling so rapidly -  up until now. However, after the last week of large gains, the cold is spreading across the Arctic polar regiion.

Resultant average temeperatures are now around  -16C, having fallen steadily this week, under the developing high pressure, and long Arctic nights with no visible sun.

  ,         

The coldest areas are now over the pole itself, as southern Greenland is experiencing heavy snowfalls (and hence no overnight cold) and much cloud. Interestingly the Bering Ocean has now turned below average in temperatures and snowfall is also now being shown for that area. Svalbard looks to be heading for blizzzards during the next few days. Snowfall will prevent temperatures from falling quickly.

 As the remaining ocean  ice covers over the next week,  further temperature falls can be expected in the Masie DMI temperature report -  

   

So where do we go from here?

Well the next 3-5 days (according to GFS) via the Climate Reanalyser look like being high pressure dominated with the high moving to the Beaufort sea area and a slack low pressure areas developing further towards Svalbard.

   today,  by day 5             

 

and by day 10 -

     

So the high pressure is expected to decline, and the temperatures to fall in North America and Siberia, whilst levelling off in the rest of the Arctic as low pressure starts to dominate again. 

All dependent upon GFS!!!!!!

So the next week looks like a repeat of the last week and it looks as though it will be next wekend before changes start to occur. 

Will this have much impact on us?

Probably none.

I expect to see the less warm air extend southward into western Europe, and the Russian snow will continue to move westwards to the edge of Europe, (Moscow could see snowfall this week).

N America to become colder with snow erending southwards into the South of Canada and  probably to Toronto.New York regions.

However, none of this will have impact for us........

it ahould  be realised that our cold weather comes from the North NOT the East - until at least Christmas.  

For the UK  to turn cold we must look for depressions to transfer to our East and pull colder air out of the Arctic via the North Atlantic. A cold Europe will only benefit us in the new year. So looking for cold (in the near future) in that direction will lead to utter depression, but could prove very useful after Xmas when Easterlies are more prevalent..

Expect a quieter week, nest week, and hopefully more consolidation overthe Arctic..

MIA 

 

 

[Aleman]

First signs of more sustained advances into Foxe Basin/North Hudson and even first signs of something along more southern Hudson. It seems a few days early and I don't think the latter will sustain as water seemed too warm before the snows. The appearance of large areas of 0-10% ice looks to be down to significant snow again as a complex multiple low system went though, dragging down cold from northern Greenland which is likely to be temporary.

 

Edited October 30, 2022 by Aleman

[Midlands Ice Age]

Quick update from me today...

NSIDC now joins JAXA in reporting that we are now exceeding last years ice up at this stage of the season..

 

Now the difficult bit of keeping in front. although todays report of a (+194K Km2) gain is helping..

And for me,  my prediction of a flash freeze for Kara didn't take long..   Just the (+111K Km2) in the area reported today, as the ice pack heads for the Severnya Islands...(the half semi-circle bottom right below).

         

A bit later than years recently, but expect it to fill rapidly.  Berants may prove more troublesome though.   

Also good gains recorded  in the CAA(+20K), Baffin (+18K), Chuckchi(+15K) and a final hole filled  in the ESS (+7K) now joining Laptev in the full category for this year.

Snow  - hardly any change on land, but a lot more falling in the Arctic Ocean zone,.

MIA    

 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

A further quick update today, plus a look back at October from a stats point of view..

Snow  expanded further south into Asia, and also had a burst southwards from Finland towards Moscow!!. 

 

Masie sea ice extent up by (+152K Km2) today, now up to 8.7M Km2 total. Roughly double the minimum low extent of 6 weeks ago.

It also managed to extend the lead to over 100K Km2 on last years extent.

 

Unlike yesterday when Kara had a 'flash' freeeze, today it fell by (-7K),  as it seems to have consolidated quite a bit.

All other active sea areas managed gains of between 10 and 20K km2 - so just a general refreeeze day.

 

We are almost at the end of the 'rapid' refreeze season. Expect gains to drop back to 50 - 100K Km2 daily as the norm from here on in.

 

Some stats from the ASIF for October  on Arctic sea ice (with thanks).

Historical monthly average for October -

Year to date extent growth this year (365 days)

    Wow!

and the last years  daily average extent values -

 

 

So this year is far so good.

However changes are looking imminent for the Northern hemisphere  atmospheric profile,  later this week??.

MIA

 

Edited November 1, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Aleman]

It's probably temporary but the low complex has pulled eastward leaving northerlies dragging down cold and snow from northern Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago. Western Hudson temperatures are a bit below normal  - again, probably temporarily - but it means ice is advancing a few days early along the full length of the western Hudson Bay coast.  More snow looks likely in coming days as another low crosses the Great Lakes, pulling up moister Gulf air to meet the current cold without necessarily displacing it. Polar Bears that frequent there will be happy with a potentially early start to hunting season but it's questionable if the spell of cold weather will continue.

 

 

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Aleman

[Wheezer]

A fine October it was!

 

 

 

 

[Aleman]

And November starting okay. Both NE tributaries of Anchorage Bay are now showing ice. That seems a bit early? It's worth remembering, though, that recent years have seen N.Hemiphere snows start earlier AND FINISH EARLIER than previous decades. This year has not made its mind up yet, with extent already nearly half way to  its peak.

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by Aleman

[Midlands Ice Age]

No real change in the snow cover over  the NH, (as per Aleman;s post above).

The NSIDC view of the NH below. Very much average for the time of year now.

Total Ice extent growth dropped to  a meagre (+50K Km2) on Tueday, after the big advances on monday.

The biggest 'faller' was surprisingly (to me at least)  Kara, which fell back by (-40K) , after a fall of (-7K) the day before.

However, Kara suffered a severe blizzard on saturday, and with low (<-1C) sea water temperatures and air temperatures well below  freezing,  I think we saw Aleman's classic slush mixture form on the sea water.

It fell apart initially, but it has come back strongly again today with an extent increase of (+80K). I think we will see good gains in Kara  now. 

Elsewhere Greenland lost (-30K),but all other areas (not full) saw good gains to leave the total figure up by +148K Km2, and just short of 9M Km2..

    This leaves 2022 winter  about +200K Km2 up on last  year now,

To back up  Aleman's post above,  Hudson Bay showed an increase of (+15K) - its first largish increase of the season.

Lastly before I go,,

A quite remarkable temperature profile for the North American continent and Siberia tonight on CR...

  Looks like an inverse political map!!!

Also a remarkably cold southern hemisphere suddenly appears =

 

 

MIA

 

Edited November 3, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Katrine Basso]

Asia / Europe Snow and Ice Chart

[johncam]

42 minutes ago, Katrine Basso said:

Asia / Europe Snow and Ice Chart

Not much in Europe at  all 

[Aleman]

Hudson Bay increased, as per MIA's comment, but it's notable that it increased in the North while the bit hugging southern coasts surprisingly early has melted away.  I suggested the water looked too warm for the snow to overcome in the south and so it seems. It now probably means that Hudson is now back to about average after looking ahead of normal a couple of days ago.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

20 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

No real change in the snow cover over  the NH, (as per Aleman;s post above).

The NSIDC view of the NH below. Very much average for the time of year now.

Total Ice extent growth dropped to  a meagre (+50K Km2) on Tueday, after the big advances on monday.

The biggest 'faller' was surprisingly (to me at least)  Kara, which fell back by (-40K) , after a fall of (-7K) the day before.

However, Kara suffered a severe blizzard on saturday, and with low (<-1C) sea water temperatures and air temperatures well below  freezing,  I think we saw Aleman's classic slush mixture form on the sea water.

It fell apart initially, but it has come back strongly again today with an extent increase of (+80K). I think we will see good gains in Kara  now. 

Elsewhere Greenland lost (-30K),but all other areas (not full) saw good gains to leave the total figure up by +148K Km2, and just short of 9M Km2..

    This leaves 2022 winter  about +200K Km2 up on last  year now,

To back up  Aleman's post above,  Hudson Bay showed an increase of (+15K) - its first largish increase of the season.

Lastly before I go,,

A quite remarkable temperature profile for the North American continent and Siberia tonight on CR...

  Looks like an inverse political map!!!

Also a remarkably cold southern hemisphere suddenly appears =

 

 

MIA

 

The SH has suffered with these swathes of cold for months on end.  Records (cold) have fallen in abundance in South America, Australia and SA throughout their winter and Spring.  
 

BFTP

[Don]

6 hours ago, johncam said:

Not much in Europe at  all 

Nope, after advances last week, things looked to have stalled again.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

10 minutes ago, Don said:

Nope, after advances last week, things looked to have stalled again.

Australia get more snow than us…a lot more

 

BFTP

[Midlands Ice Age]

6 hours ago, johncam said:

Not much in Europe at  all 

Europe is still around average for the first week of November. A bit of patience is required. Temperatures are around 0C now in Moscow.

At this stage we normally see the first signs of snowfall expanding to aound 2000m.

MIA 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

18 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Australia get more snow than us…a lot more

 

BFTP

How about this for the southern Hemisphere....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

35 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

How about this for the southern Hemisphere....

And that complete swathe of ‘warmth’ in central Antarctica is just a joke….how many weather stations cover the interior???

 

BFTP

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

45 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

How about this for the southern Hemisphere....

So with -24s in Siberia….that’s relevant to Reds?????    Don’t make sense to me

 

BFTP

Edited November 4, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST