Snow and Ice in the Northern Hemisphere: Winter 22/23

[Midlands Ice Age]

Another snow and sea ice extent review.

Snow still expanding south in Asia, and also moves closer towards Moscow.

Ice  produces an increase of +147K Km2  to give total extent of 9,034K Km2.

 

A few interesting bits of news -

1) Kara increases by a furher (+97K)  - flash freeze territory again.

2) Hudson Bay increases by (+31K) to nearly double its extent.

3) Phew....   (just within the week, that I predicted...) Sea ice fist appears around Svalbard in the estuaries, and on the east side of the islands.    

  (see bottom left)   

MIA

 

Edited November 4, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

A review since the last one on friday -

Snow increases in Asia most noticeable, More south than west though.  Canada now just about covered .

 

The Masie sea ice extent has progressed steadily over the weekend with extent increases of (+89K) , (+82K) and today a double century incease of (+223K) to give a total of 9,442k Km2 nearly 250K Km2 above the level for last year, and now at 11th highest in the last 16 years..  The eight double century increase this feeezing season.

Following the total freeze now in the ESS. Laptev and Beaufort (almost complete now) , it has been left to the remaining areas within the circle to pick up the mantel at this early stage of the refreeze..   

This has been accomplished with (In the 3 days)  Chuckchi (+18K), Kara (+74K), Barents(+20K), Greenland (+35K), 

with Baffin. (+110K) and Hudson (+104K (+64K today)) outside the direct circle but  very cold.

The  outer seas have gradually increased with Bering Sea (+12K), SOO (+3K) and Cooke Inlet (+1K) all gaining .

The Central Arctic pack, after remaining fairly steady,  has increased by (+18K) in the last 2 days as the ice pack expands southwards. 

 

 So a very general increase in sea ice extent has occured and will be interesting to review the Arctic Temperatures.

 

Unfortunately the Masie DMI above 80 degrees has not been updated for over a week now,

I seem to remember that last year I reported similar at the COP meeting time.

It is a shame as it would have given  us some indications as to whether the much increased rise is directly associated with temperatures falling.

MIA 

Perhaps they are taking their holidays in Egypt this year.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Amazing early build up of Autumnal snow in Siberia, Canada, Scandinavia etc.

Sadly we're stuck with mild, Atlantic mush in Western Europe

 

 

 

[jonboy]

57 minutes ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Amazing early build up of Autumnal snow in Siberia, Canada, Scandinavia etc.

Sadly we're stuck with mild, Atlantic mush in Western Europe

 

 

 

I would rather that cold builds where it is and then it can flood western europe when its winter. I want cold late december jan and feb not early november or early december for that matter

[Bradowl]

15 minutes ago, jonboy said:

I would rather that cold builds where it is and then it can flood western europe when its winter. I want cold late december jan and feb not early november or early december for that matter

Correct, it would be a wasted Easterly at this time of year, we would just end up with cold rain. 

[damianslaw]

3 hours ago, Turnedoutniceagain said:

Amazing early build up of Autumnal snow in Siberia, Canada, Scandinavia etc.

Sadly we're stuck with mild, Atlantic mush in Western Europe

 

 

 

I think it is quite average for 8 Nov. Snow in Europe early-mid Nov quite rare, usually hits eastern Europe end of Nov into early Dec, along with most of Scandi.

Our coldest sourced air in Nov comes from the arctic. 

[carinthian]

Vancouver woke up today to a early season snow cover. Thats quite impressive for its Pacific coast location so early in November. My son who lives there on the Arbutus Ridge above the city reports 5 cm of lying snow.

C

[Midlands Ice Age]

7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I think it is quite average for 8 Nov. Snow in Europe early-mid Nov quite rare, usually hits eastern Europe end of Nov into early Dec, along with most of Scandi.

Our coldest sourced air in Nov comes from the arctic. 

Just checked with Rutgers and snow is actually  above average for the date, but your general point is correct.

The snow has fallen within 50miles of Moscow , and is in Northern Scandinavia. So it is at fairly reasonable level,

It looks to me as if we have more snow on the Arctic ice this year, but ithink  that is not included in Rutgers snow figures.. 

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2022&ui_day=311&ui_set=2

Rutgers University Climate Lab :: Global Snow Lab

CLIMATE.RUTGERS.EDU

---

Rutgers University Global Snow Lab

 

 for comparison the CR map, and........

A quite remarkable difference in temperature profile at the moment across our globe as seen on CR. -

      

MIA

 

Edited November 8, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

so are we saying that -20 uppers are vastly warm anomaly temps in Siberia in Nov?  Are they supposed to be -30? -40?

BFTP

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

so are we saying that -20 uppers are vastly warm anomaly temps in Siberia in Nov?  Are they supposed to be -30? -40?

BFTP

i haven't studied the uppers much on here for the Arctic .

The anomalies shown above on CR refer  to the 2M temps.

They currently show about (+1.8C) for the Arctic, but oddly(?) are at (-2.0C) for the much larger area of Antactica. 

The southern hemisphere seems to be cooling  according to the anomalies at the moment.

As for 'uppers' I guess it would be reasonable to look at the ECM archives at say the 7th November and for say the North Pole to note the values.? Very quick and Heath Robinson  I know, but if the difference is that large then it should show up,

During my 'ice watch' this year it would appear that the 2m temps fall automatically when ice forms over water (due to the refractive index.and heat absorption indices) .  Therefore the more ice there is  will automatically mean the the temps will reduce.. of course it will also depend upon the starting temperatures each year. So not only does the air/sea temp affect ice melt, but the ice itself has an impact upon temperatures. I suspect that the models are not picking up the correct total 'ice' effect yet.

In the 70's and 80's we had a lot more ice and hence we would expect to see that the temperature was lower.

That is why this years spring melt was extremely unusual for  the last 40years (a one off,  I think), where we saw less ice than the 70's,etc but we had lower temperatures. The reason has not yet been suggested, but I suspect the triple La Nina must be involved somewhere. and It seemed to start going haywire well before the southern hemisphere (Hunga Tonga) major eruption/volcano, which occured in January. 

MIA

 

Edited November 8, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age
Date for Hunga Tonga Eruption

[throwoff]

Well, I guess it is time I do one of my comparison posts. 

This is the current picture.

 

If we compare to the bellweather that is 2010 

 

 

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that is the closest ice cover match we have had in the last 10 years I have been doing these comparisons.

The snow being so much further south is also of note.

If we take the same shot from 12 months ago it is certainly interesting that while a lot of excitement was generated by the amount of snow it was almost exclusively heavier in the east of the continent.

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

 Thanks Throwoff for the comparison.

 

It is simailar to 2010 for ice cover, but this year shows more snow in North America than then.

In fact on the latest chart it is extending quite a way down into the USA having covered all but the far north east of Canada.

It is now much greater than either of your comparison years. 

×

 

As for my sea ice report for the last 4 days......

Extent increases have slowed down dramatically down to (+43K),(+24K), (+24K) and today (+97K).  This still keeps it at number 1 position but almost in a dead heat now with 2 other years.

 The slow down (as I suggested) has come about as most of the 'easy ice' within the Arctic ocean has now formed, and we await a breakout of the cold arctic air to the more southern waters and countries in order to restart the ice extent's growth..

Areas about to take up the running now will have to be  Chuckchi, Barents, Bering and Hudson Bay - today they  recorded  increases of (+37K), (+15K), (+11K) and (+11K) respectively.

In addition in the next few weeks we can expect Kara to complete quite quickly, and also for the SOO to start its refreeze.

 It is this next phase which is crucial for the winter ice extent winter season.

Currently the ASIF (Jaxa) has us in the 10th position in the last 16 years and  just below a couple of others (2009,2010, and also 2013), 

         

 

Thus far this season there has been a good snow and ice refreeze.

Weather conditions have dictated the patterns, and it is this which will determine the rate of increase/decrease in the next 2 months.

As per the MOD thread there are currently 2 totally opposing views which will mean either an all inclusive  polar vortex or we could see the development of an all embracing massive anticyclone.

The next week promises to be a good watch!!                  I have my popcorn ready.

MIA    

Edited November 12, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Runnig out of popcorn already...   so before I go out and get some more,  a quick update from me on the general situation.

Firstly the ice extent and snow situation has not changed much in the last couple of days with about average gains in both.

I will mention however that Chuckchi ice looks interesting now.  It seems to be determined to bridge the Bering gap from the Siberian side and this will probably lead to a cut-off pool of ocean water behind in Chuckchi.  How long before it infreezes (or possibly melts away)?

As per the discussion on the MOD thread,    N.A. has now turned unusually cold for the whole continnent. Whilst I have been watching the 'high' pressure (Aleutian high) anomaly stuck over the NW of the continent for a couple of weeks, I did expect it to wane rather than to rise. It is this that has sent the cold air flooding south over the USA. I now predict the snow to move further south into some of the southern States. Already Oklahoma is seeing snowfall and this could easily extend.

Meanwhile over to the East...

Like the N.A. continent, Russia has seen the development of a high pressure anomaly over the North West.

Whilst (like the USA) it does not mean automtic cold (as its so early in the winter season at the moment), it would seem that the cold air is 'gradually' cooling/pooling via insolation.   Temperatures in Yatusk are now around -30's C, and this colder air has now spread to Perm  (-10C), which is only about 3-500miles ENE of Moscow. IF this process contiunues, then the colder air with snowfall is forecast in Moscow in a couple of days (-3C). The following day it is expected to reach Ukraine and the eastern european countries. So the snow and ice charts will be loooking very healthy by the end of the week.

After that ???

So more popcorn needed!!

The other area of the NH Arctic which received little attention on this forum is Greenland  (although outside of here, it is often quoted).

 So I decided to run a little update (mainly from the ASIF and the DMI (Dutch Met Institute) who cover this area of the world)),

It would seem as though (since a large drop in the Surface Mass Balance (SMB) occured  in 2019) the situation with the Greenland ice sheet has remained generally static. There has been periods  (generally short) when melt has occured,  but during 2021 and it seems this year that the winter season has increased the Surface Balance (via snowfall) sufficiently to offset the losses form the melting glaciers, etc. This happened last year and this year (very early in the season) it seems to be happening again, with snowfall occuring more generally and also unusually in the eastern regions (see below for current accumulated and todays figures) -

        todays daily chart  -          

and more detail -    

 

So it would seem as though it is not just the sea ice extent that has had an uplift/change in the last 2 years, but also the snowfall (as also shown by Rutgers below).  Is this a short-term change and if so what is the underlaying  cause?

 

   https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2022&ui_day=318&ui_set=2

All for now....

MIA

Edited November 15, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Doesn’t look good for Norwegian ski resorts trying to open on the 25th Nov in Lillehammer!

Wonder what next two weeks has in store.

[Midlands Ice Age]

5 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Doesn’t look good for Norwegian ski resorts trying to open on the 25th Nov in Lillehammer!

Wonder what next two weeks has in store.

But it looks as if it could be very cold...

 Not sure if you are skiiing...

They must have snow cannons..

MIA

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

But it looks as if it could be very cold...

 Not sure if you are skiiing...

They must have snow cannons..

MIA

 

Yep we’re going skiing on the 26th in Kvitfjell. On their website they’re saying they aim to open on the 25th as long as it’s consistently cold enough for snow production.

So fingers crossed!

Would be good if some snow fell before then!

[Midlands Ice Age]

STOP THE PRESS..

NSIDC (Masie)  has just come  up with a 241K Km2 increase.

A totally unexpected increase in NH sea ice extent has just ben published by Masie.

     

After 2 quiet days with increases of (+16K and (+33K),  Masie suddenly hits a record for the date increase of (+241K Km2).

General and good increases in all areas  were reported and even some which had been reported full!

Beaufort (+11K) - must by now be totally filled in, and with Chuckchi  (+69K) - is speeding to try and close the Bering Straits before too  many ships have left!!!

ESS (+2K) completes its infill, whilst Kara (+6K) just ambles along, whilst next door Barents (+21K)  concentrates on the bays on the coastline towards Murmansk. No real change yet in Svalbard with ice just in the sheltered bays, (but see below)..

Greenland (+32K),  also round the corner in Baffin (+21K) with both  concentrating on expanding southwards.

Hudson Bay (+47K) is now really moving out into the bay from the west coast...  Hard luck for any seal pups there!,

Whilst the Bering Ocean added (+21K) mainly expanding out from the sheltered bays around the main coastlines.

Central arctic (CAB) (+24K) also moved the main pack closer in towards and is now threatening Svalbard.

The SOO gained (+14K) whilst the Yellow Sea (+15k) tripled in size.  Must be some cold air spilling out from China to have this happen so early!. 

So a general all=round surprise increase, when nothing too much going on. I do wonder (as its exactly half way through the month) if a new 'ice grid' has been put into place, Tomorrow we will see. 

 My one regret is that the Arctic (above 80 degrees) temperature graph from DMI is still not updated.. so I'll have to make do with Climate Reamalyser instead!

MIA

 

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[Midlands Ice Age]

Climate Reanalyzer

CLIMATEREANALYZER.ORG

 

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

STOP THE PRESS..

NSIDC (Masie)  has just come  up with a 241K Km2 increase.

A totally unexpected increase in NH sea ice extent has just ben published by Masie.

     

After 2 quiet days with increases of (+16K and (+33K),  Masie suddenly hits a record for the date increase of (+241K Km2).

General and good increases in all areas  were reported and even some which had been reported full!

Beaufort (+11K) - must by now be totally filled in, and with Chuckchi  (+69K) - is speeding to try and close the Bering Straits before too  many ships have left!!!

ESS (+2K) completes its infill, whilst Kara (+6K) just ambles along, whilst next door Barents (+21K)  concentrates on the bays on the coastline towards Murmansk. No real change yet in Svalbard with ice just in the sheltered bays, (but see below)..

Greenland (+32K),  also round the corner in Baffin (+21K) with both  concentrating on expanding southwards.

Hudson Bay (+47K) is now really moving out into the bay from the west coast...  Hard luck for any seal pups there!,

Whilst the Bering Ocean added (+21K) mainly expanding out from the sheltered bays around the main coastlines.

Central arctic (CAB) (+24K) also moved the main pack closer in towards and is now threatening Svalbard.

The SOO gained (+14K) whilst the Yellow Sea (+15k) tripled in size.  Must be some cold air spilling out from China to have this happen so early!. 

So a general all=round surprise increase, when nothing too much going on. I do wonder (as its exactly half way through the month) if a new 'ice grid' has been put into place, Tomorrow we will see. 

 My one regret is that the Arctic (above 80 degrees) temperature graph from DMI is still not updated.. so I'll have to make do with Climate Reamalyser instead!

By coincidence CR has been also updated today to show all the climate based temperature figures for the globe. ( for first time see below)

                                                                                                                                                 compared with  the current average 'actual'      

 

Not sure what to make of this as by 'eyeing' it looks to me as if  currently the Arctic is colder than average, yet  is shown to be (+2.98C) warmer than average on the accompanying data table....

               

Hopefully data table below, (as it has now been seperated from the Anomaly chart (shown above)).

 

Climate Reanalyzer

CLIMATEREANALYZER.ORG

Still it is still early days of the new format.  Perhaps when COP27 has finished we can get all the data back again.

It does however show the large cold anomaly in the USA and also the cold closer ro the Pacific in China this year.

So at least some corelation.

MIA

 Edit -          Ah  Now I think I can understand.

The writeup states that they are using the 1979 - 2000 years as their anomaly background. and also that they have removed above 80 degrees lattitude. So it is no longer any use for the true Arctic circle for any data comparisons. Despite this they show the figures quite clearly.....

MIA

By coincidence CR has been also updated today to show all the climate based temperature figures for the globe. ( for first time see below)

                                                                                                                                                 compared with  the current average 'actual'      

 

Not sure what to make of this as by 'eyeing' it looks to me as if  currently the Arctic is colder than average, yet  is shown to be (+2.98C) warmer than average on the accompanying data table....

               

Hopefully data table below, (as it has now been seperated from the Anomaly chart (shown above)).

 

Climate Reanalyzer

CLIMATEREANALYZER.ORG

Still it is still early days of the new format.  Perhaps when COP27 has finished we can get all the data back again.

It does however show the large cold anomaly in the USA and also the cold closer ro the Pacific in China this year.

So at least some corelation.

MIA

 Edit -          Ah  Now I think I can understand, amd I have split my post in half to try to explain..

The writeup states that they are using the 1979 - 2000 years as their anomaly background. and also that they have removed above 80 degrees lattitude. So it is no longer any use for the true Arctic circle for any data comparisons. Despite this they show the figures quite clearly.....

MIA

Edited November 15, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Antarctica just posted it’s latest ever sub -60C temp at the French outpost.  I do doubt that huge ‘warm anomaly’ showing in the interior.

 

Re Bering. i read that the ocean cold pool is now returned/ing after a few years.  Maybe that’s why we are seeing that ice bridge build from Chuckchi?

 

BFTP

[Derecho]

39 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Antarctica just posted it’s latest ever sub -60C temp at the French outpost.  I do doubt that huge ‘warm anomaly’ showing in the interior.

 

Re Bering. i read that the ocean cold pool is now returned/ing after a few years.  Maybe that’s why we are seeing that ice bridge build from Chuckchi?

 

BFTP

Different map projections can show it better, some below average temps well into the interior here.

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Different map projections can show it better, some below average temps well into the interior here.

QS..

I too had spotted that.   

But they only produce their anomalies figures on the worldwide map - which cuts off at 80 degrees.

So the world wide temp anomaly does not show much of an anomaly (particulary for the Antarctic),.

Yet they show it as being -1.95C for the Antarctic.

Something does not add up here... Users should be able to see what is happening at the poles.

MIA

 

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Different map projections can show it better, some below average temps well into the interior here.

Excellent, thank you

 

 BFTP

[jonboy]

Watching the news update from Moscow this morning it appears snow has reach there.

[jonboy]

Equally snow now into New England with the Ski resort of Stowe receiving up to 8 inches overnight and today

[Midlands Ice Age]

At last..... an update from DMI on temperatures.

Todays Masie chart for above 80degrees shows that since Day 300 (Oct 27th), nothing was updated for 4 days (a major problem?) and since then they have now produced  their normal regular daily updates.

              

It is showing average decline of about 0,5C per day during its absence, and as per monday it recorded 251.2K  (about -21C) as its average temperature at 2m on the surface of the Arctic. This figure is computed from the EC twice daily weather charts.

The freeze up is very similar (from a temperature point of view) to the 2021 winter season, and as per the latest day  it is about 1C lower. 

MIA

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Midlands Ice Age