Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

[Don]

4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

2020/21 wasn't snowy at all ..we had one major snowstorm on Nov 9th (technically Autumn) and it never snow again the whole winter outside a few flurries

Really, I thought you got lots of snow every year, even during mild Canadian winters?!  2020/21 was one of the better recent winters for the UK, so I guess we know where this year's going!! 

[cheeky_monkey]

24 minutes ago, Don said:

Really, I thought you got lots of snow every year, even during mild Canadian winters?!  2020/21 was one of the better recent winters for the UK, so I guess we know where this year's going!! 

some years we get a pasting..some years not so much..depends how the jet aligns through the winter..much like the UK some years it can be wet and mild some it can be dry and mild..here some years cold and snowy some its cold and dry

[Met4Cast]

Bit of a classic winter setup developing through this weekend and early next week. Hurricane Fiona will move northwards to the west of Greenland, through the "Greenland Shredder" advecting ample amounts of warm air into Greenland/the Arctic. The amplified jet as a result allows high pressure to form in the Atlantic and we see a chilly northerly airflow develop across the UK, absolute bullseye! 

Unfortunately it's September, so a chilly(ish) few days and some snow over the Highlands is about as good as we'll manage, serves as a reminder that the Arctic is cooling, the SPV is building & winter will soon be on its way.

[Don]

18 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Bit of a classic winter setup developing through this weekend and early next week.

I hope it's a sign of things to come.....

[damianslaw]

30 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Bit of a classic winter setup developing through this weekend and early next week. Hurricane Fiona will move northwards to the west of Greenland, through the "Greenland Shredder" advecting ample amounts of warm air into Greenland/the Arctic. The amplified jet as a result allows high pressure to form in the Atlantic and we see a chilly northerly airflow develop across the UK, absolute bullseye! 

Unfortunately it's September, so a chilly(ish) few days and some snow over the Highlands is about as good as we'll manage, serves as a reminder that the Arctic is cooling, the SPV is building & winter will soon be on its way.

For snow lovers 3 months too early. These synoptics would by then most likely give a rain to snow event, with plenty of snow showers or bands of snow packing in behind, given it is an unstable set up. Alas at this time of year just cold rain. Still its always interesting to see amplified flows in Autumn, diving low pressure into Europe.

[Weather Enthusiast91]

Energy bills aside, I am hoping we get some memorable cold days this winter. We frequently get memorable hot days during the summer, so it would make a nice change.

I am not interested in having a really cold winter, just a few short spells here and there. Otherwise, as mentioned previously I'd be happy with a 2020/21 style winter.

[Don]

13 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I am not interested in having a really cold winter, just a few short spells here and there. Otherwise, as mentioned previously I'd be happy with a 2020/21 style winter.

Although I'm not making a call for the coming winter (just yet!), my best guess at this stage is that the best a coldie could hope for is something akin to 2020/21 or 2000/01 as opposed to being particularly cold i.e. a 2009/10 repeat!

Edited September 23, 2022 by Don

[Mike Poole]

On 13/09/2022 at 14:59, CoxR said:

The c3s mult-system forecast for Winter looks virtually identical to the one at this time last year...

Yes, quite similar, but those 3 month average plots can hide a lot of detail, can’t they?  Nonetheless, I will be making the same early prediction this year as last year.  That of potential for a front loaded winter with cold for the UK in December, before the polar vortex can belatedly ramp up, and without prejudice of a SSW delivering something later into winter.  It proved to be a bust last year, I’ll level with you, but I felt we were in with a good chance and the dice didn’t fall for us, while there was a chance before New Year.  I think pretty much the same cards are on the table this year, surely we can draw a better hand?  (Mixed metaphor overload, there).  

Well, in a way, the same cards would be on the table, it is a repeat La Niña year, like last year, so a double repeat, although I think the fact that it is a repeat Nina means more than the fact that it is the third in a row (although these are rare, data is short!).  What has been clear throughout the other seasons for the last two years - both bookended by La Niña winters - is the total lack of significant weather from the Atlantic.

And the current model output, and the seasonal models, seem keen on an Atlantic ridge going into autumn and so I am suggesting we go into winter this year with potential for blocking, and a subdued Atlantic.  There is then a window for a cold pattern to take hold in December, before the polar vortex gets too wound up…it just needs luck this year that eluded us last year.  

ECM seasonal model, split into Dec, Jan and Feb:

You can see what I mean about the 3 month average plots hiding useful stuff, because the pattern in December is very different to February, and I think the Atlantic ridge scenario in December gives a chance.  Difficult to read too much into February (obviously it is different) because the runs will no doubt have ensemble members in which there has been a SSW and ones where there hasn’t and you have to factor that in.  

But that’s for later, I think the first chase will be a front loaded December evolution of the current blocked pattern, then maybe a SSW and all the drama that brings to follow…

[Don]

Controversial I know but at least it's not looking likely that we are going to be burdened by a very warm September this year!!

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

 

 

I for one would not complain if those charts end up close to the mark this winter!

Edited September 23, 2022 by Don

[MP-R]

On 20/09/2022 at 11:29, mountain shadow said:

Thanks for that.

Doesn't look good for North West Europe in terms of snow and cold and no sign of any storminess either.

Could be a benign Winter weather wise.

As boring as it sounds, it’s probably what we need this winter.

I’m a coldie in winter but I’d take another one like last year this year.

[Don]

18 minutes ago, MP-R said:

As boring as it sounds, it’s probably what we need this winter.

It wouldn't be good for the drought situation though and would mean a wet spring/summer would be needed next year, which a lot would not be too happy about I'm sure!

[Allseasons-Si]

JFF but the cfs has a cold plunge at the end of Oct with maybe a good air frost.

then this pre-Christmas on the 21st

and the big day.

of course it is the cfs and it sounds like a sofa company lol but don't shoot the messenger 

it has been a great summer with extreme heat but can we have extreme cold to follow!!!

 

Edited September 23, 2022 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

JFF but the cfs has a cold plunge at the end of Oct with maybe a good air frost.

then this pre-Christmas on the 21st

and the big day.

Very similar to what happened exactly 14 years to the day previous with that October chart!!

A very festive Christmas indeed!!

 

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

Very similar to what happened exactly 14 years to the day previous with that October chart!!

A very festive Christmas indeed!!

 

Yes i remember Oct 2008 with wintry showers from the north,was there settling snow down the eastern side of the country,...i cannot remember now,i am sure i had a dusting here

[Don]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes i remember Oct 2008 with wintry showers from the north,was there settling snow down the eastern side of the country,...i cannot remember now,i am sure i had a dusting here

There was settling snow as far south as the home counties, up to two inches, even London had a dusting!

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Don said:

There was settling snow as far south as the home counties, up to two inches, even London had a dusting!

I thought so as it sticks in my mind as a memorable event,...for October

 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I thought so as it sticks in my mind as a memorable event,...for October

 

Absolutely, especially after such a mild run of winters!  Was definitely a sign of things to come for the next 4 years!  2008 really marked a turning point for a colder period.

Edited September 23, 2022 by Don

[lassie23]

This is my early winter thoughts in emojis 

[Georgina]

7 hours ago, lassie23 said:

This is my early winter thoughts in emojis 

So basically your in shock with football results 

then the energy crisis hits 

next Christmas Day party

onto Boxing Day boredom 

and rounding it off with far to much alcohol in the new year

[damianslaw]

8 hours ago, Don said:

There was settling snow as far south as the home counties, up to two inches, even London had a dusting!

A cold snap in late October always pricks my attention and speculation. 2000, 2008, 2010 and 2012 all produced low level snow in parts of the north from northerlies, and the following winters all brought some decent or very cold conditions.

Conversely the normal wet mild weather we experience in late October has more often than not been followed by mild wet winters. Probably one or two exceptions to this. 

More recently we've had a few cold spells in November, apart from 2008, 2010 and to an extent 2017 these haven't been followed by cold winters. Last winters cold end to Nov a case in point, 2016 also.

Edited September 24, 2022 by damianslaw

[MP-R]

9 hours ago, Don said:

It wouldn't be good for the drought situation though and would mean a wet spring/summer would be needed next year, which a lot would not be too happy about I'm sure!

Better get some decent rain in November then

[Met4Cast]

The SST analogues provided by the World Climate Service paint a rather grim picture for Oct > Dec.

Very warm, wet & possibly windy. Based on SST's alone of course, but given the almost uniformly warm Atlantic, it makes sense. Complete opposite of the La-Nina "front loaded" winter idea, but as we've seen for the past two winters now that can't really be relied upon as a factor, with other drivers more often than not overriding the signal. 

For me, going into this winter isn't looking promising for cold lovers, everything seems to be stacked against us. SST's are a big factor in my opinion, more important than ENSO in most cases.

wQBO limits the potential for Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, so we might not be able to rely on that for a significant change to colder weather patterns.

[Don]

25 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The SST analogues provided by the World Climate Service paint a rather grim picture for Oct > Dec.

Very warm, wet & possibly windy. Based on SST's alone of course, but given the almost uniformly warm Atlantic, it makes sense. Complete opposite of the La-Nina "front loaded" winter idea, but as we've seen for the past two winters now that can't really be relied upon as a factor, with other drivers more often than not overriding the signal. 

For me, going into this winter isn't looking promising for cold lovers, everything seems to be stacked against us. SST's are a big factor in my opinion, more important than ENSO in most cases.

wQBO limits the potential for Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, so we might not be able to rely on that for a significant change to colder weather patterns.

Had better get that winter holiday over the other side of the pond booked then!! 

I'm probably clutching at straws to an extent but 2000 and 2020 are in those analogues which were reasonable winters for the UK.  Also, 2005 was a 'near miss' winter for the UK and was close to being cold.  However, I can't deny there are some shockers in those analogues too!

Edited September 24, 2022 by Don

[Chris Smith]

The jet stream had better wake up soon - the reservoirs are looking very empty. If we end up with another winter like last, with gloomy highs and a mostly flacid and confused jet, next year's water supply could be out of the back of a tanker at the end of your street.

[Premiere Neige]

On 24/09/2022 at 07:57, Georgina said:

So basically your in shock with football results 

then the energy crisis hits 

next Christmas Day party

onto Boxing Day boredom 

and rounding it off with far to much alcohol in the new year

Where did you learn to speak emoji?