Hurricane Fiona

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[Thunder Snow]

Wonder if fiona will make cat 5

[Jo Farrow]

A look at the CHC, the Canadian Hurricane Centre and some of the previous storms including strong Juan 2003 and Ginny 1963, also similar path Earl from 2010.

The Canadian Hurricane Centre and previous storms

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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As Hurricane Fiona passes Bermuda and heads to Nova Scotia, it will soon move from the remit of the US National Hurricane Centre to the CHC, the Canadian Hurricane Centre which was set up in the 80s

 

[Eagle Eye]

8 hours ago, Thunder Snow said:

Wonder if fiona will make cat 5

Theoretically it could do it after it passes Bermuda, it's also speeding up now and so the positioning of this forecast will be more accurate than before because the upper-level winds are a lot more defined.

The seas may be warm enough up there and there's still little shearing until it engages with that trough but I don't see much that could strengthen it here enough as of yet. However,  there is the fact that most of the data being collected will be satellite data, potentially making it difficult to forecast minor engagements with an area of more moisture. Theoretically, it could draw in moisture from the troughing to the North of it without engaging with its entire shearing.

If we look at the ICON forecast, it does look to draw in quite a lot of moisture from the troughing and engaging with moisture to the South.

There's another thing as well that could affect its intensity and thats an eyewall replacement cycle, they happen in Major Hurricanes and can cause them to decrease in intensity and so Fiona needs to be monitored for one.

There's a lot more mechanics that go into this however because if the low-level wind intensity's then it could drop down and increase the maximum wind potential of Hurricane Fiona.

Looking at the wind at 100m on the ECM Forecast and there may be a couple pockets of Category 5 intensity that may rotate down. Hope much could drop down and actually engage and intensity Hurricane Fiona into a Category 5 is something that I don't know and I suspect relies on a complicated amount of physics.

[matty40s]

 

[Paul]

A couple of updates from @Jo Farrow & @Nick F on Fiona this morning:

Atlantic Canada bracing for Hurricane Fiona's arrival

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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A look Hurricane Fiona's potential impacts along Canada's Atlantic coastal areas over the next few days. As well as bringing destructive winds, storm surge and flooding, Fiona could break Canada's all-time lowest...

The Canadian Hurricane Centre and previous storms

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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As Hurricane Fiona passes Bermuda and heads to Nova Scotia, it will soon move from the remit of the US National Hurricane Centre to the CHC, the Canadian Hurricane Centre, which was set up in the 80s.

 

[matty40s]

 

[Lauren]

This is really quite the event. Hope they are as prepared as they can be.

[matty40s]

Plenty of stormchasers up there, Aaron Jayjack, Josh Morgerman....all aiming for a quick return South for the next big event.

[matty40s]

 

[FetchCB]

 

[Jo Farrow]

"While we wait for the NHC's official call, it looks like #Fiona has recently made landfall between Canso and Guysborough. With an unofficial recorded pressure at Hart Island of 931.6 mb, this makes Fiona the lowest pressured land falling storm on record in Canada." CHC

 

[matty40s]

 

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[matty40s]

 

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[matty40s]

 

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

[matty40s]

 

Edited September 24, 2022 by matty40s

[DaveL]

Almost made landfall in Nova Scotia as a hurricane and was redesignated as Post Tropical Cyclone shortly before landfall, when still at category 3 on the S-S scale. Made landfall as a cat 2 Post Tropical Cyclone. Never heard of that before - ever!

FIONA Graphics Archive: Initial Wind Field and Watch/Warning Graphic

WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

 

Edited September 25, 2022 by DaveL

[matty40s]

 

[Jo Farrow]

CHC UPDATED PRELIMINARY STORM SUMMARY ON FIONA.  THIS IS THE FINAL INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR THIS STORM.

1. FULL DISCUSSION OF THE EVENT.

Tropical depression Fiona formed over the central tropical Atlantic on September 15th. The tropical depression became better organized and its intensity gradually increased during the following day when the national hurricane centre reported tropical storm force winds near the centre of the cyclone. On September 16th Fiona reached the Leeward Islands while on its way to the western Atlantic. Two days later Fiona quickly intensified into a category 1 hurricane while turning to the northwest and passing through the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic.

On September 18th Fiona began to intensify becoming a major Hurricane and reaching category 4 while turning northward east of the Bahamas. Fiona maintained strong and dominant tropical characteristics as it moved into the Canadian hurricane centre response zone. Fiona began interacting with a mid-latitude upper trough as it advanced over the Canadian marine waters south of Nova Scotia on Friday the 23rd. At that point, maximum winds around the centre began to diminish. However, once the extra-tropical transition process was complete post-tropical storm Fiona re-intensified between Sable island and the eastern shore of Nova Scotia. By that time hurricane-force winds were spreading across parts of Atlantic Canada and over eastern Quebec.

Fiona made landfall as a category-2 hurricane strength (maximum sustained wind speeds of 165 km/h or 90 knots) post-tropical cyclone

Near Whitehead, located 28 km southwest of the town of Canso, Nova Scotia, during the early morning hours of Saturday September 24th - It generated damaging winds, , torrential rainfall, large waves and destructive storm surge. The central pressure is expected to be the lowest recorded barometric pressure in Canadian history. The nearest automatic weather station located at hart island measured a sea Level pressure of 932.7 millibars, while the east Chebucto bay Buoy measured 932.8. We are still analysing these data for accuracy.

Post-tropical storm Fiona headed north into the Gulf of st. Lawrence Saturday and brought damaging winds, torrential rainfall, large waves and destructive storm surge to the region. Fiona became fully absorbed by the upper trough on Sunday the 25th, and the remnant low still generated gale to storm force wind gusts as it moved over the Lower Quebec north shore and then Labrador.

4. Summary of wave and storm surge information:

Large waves and elevated water levels were triggered by the passage of Fiona over eastern Canada. Extremely large waves reached the Atlantic coast of nova scotia late friday. Buoy data indicated wave heights of 5 to 8 metres. The largest offshore waves were near and East of the track of Fiona; this was indicated by Satellite information and reports from a buoy over Nanquereau Nank where waves averaged 12 to 15 metres with peaks waves as high as 30 Metres. Some of these waves would impacted Cabot Strait and Southwestern Newfoundland. Over the Gulf of st. Lawrence, the Largest waves were generally between 4 and 6 metres, but peaks waves Of 10 metres were measured east of the Gaspe peninsula, and 16 Metres over eastern sections of the gulf.

Two water level records were established on Saturday, at Escuminac, New Brunswick, the peak water level measured was 2.82 metres (with a Previous record 2.47), and at Port aux Basques that peak was 2.75 Metres (with a previous record 2.71). These elevated waters levels Were mostly driven by storm surge and extremely large waves which Resulted in devastating flooding conditions especially along the coastlines of southwestern Newfoundland, eastern and northern Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island Northumberland and gulf coastlines, east coast of new Brunswick, and Iles-de-la-madeleine. Also, there Were reports of damage due to waves along parts of the Gaspe Peninsula coastline.

2. and 3. Wind and Rain in diagram from @ECCC_CHC twitter link