October 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

(1) October C.E.T. averages and extremes

Warmest third 1981-2021 bold, middle third italic and coldest third underlined ... v2.0 CET now shown for all CET data.

 

20.1 ... warmest day, 1st 1985

20.0 ... second warmest day, 1st 2011

(note monthly mean ties in this table are ties in one decimal, the official CET table is now based on two decimals not shown and their rank ordering is not exactly as shown here, although there is no way to know when the official table has tied values from second decimal also, in particular when these include years before the daily data period 1772-present.)

13.2 ... warmest Oct 2001

13.1 ... second warmest Oct 1969

13.0 ... third warmest Oct 2005

12.9 ... fourth warmest Oct 2006

12.8 ... tied fifth warmest Oct 1921, 1995

12.7 ... seventh warmest Oct  and warmest of 19th century 1831

12.6 ... eighth warmest Oct 1959

12.5 ... ninth warmest Octs 1968, 2011

12.4 ... 11th warmest Oct 2013

12.3 ... tied 12th and warmest of 18th century 1731 (with 1811 and 2014)

12.2 ... 15th warmest 2017

12.1 ... has never occurred in all 363 years (v2.0)

12.0 ... tied 16th warmest 1818 and 2021

11.9 ... (from here down to coldest months, occurrences including ties before 1981 are not listed)

11.8 ... 

11.7 ... 1990

11.6 ... 

11.5 ... 1989, 1996

11.4 ... 2009

11.3 ...

11.2 ... mean 2001-2021

11.1 ... 

11.0 ... 1984   

10.9 ... 2015  ... ... (highest 30-yr avg) 1988-2017 and 1989-2018 (v2.0)

10.8 ... average for 1991-2020, 1992-2021 ... ... 1985, 1986

10.7 ... 2007, 2016

10.6 ... 1999 

10.5 ... average for 1981-2010 (10.54) mean 1961-1990 (10.51) ... ... 2018 

10.4 ... 1998. 2004, 2020

10.3 ... 1983, 1988

10.2 ... mean 1971-2000 ... ... ... 2000, 2010 

10.1 ... mean 1901-2000

10.0 ... 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002

 9.9 ... 1982

 9.8 ... 2019

 9.7(2) ... mean for all 363 years 1659-2021 ... ... ... 

 9.6 ... 2008

 9.5 .... mean 1801-1900 ... 1987,  2012

 9.4 .... mean 1701-1800

 9.3 .... mean 1659-1700

 9.1 ... 2003

 8.3 ... 1981, 1993

 7.7 .... 27th coldest Oct 1992

 7.6 ... tied 25th coldest 1974

 7.1 .... tied 8th coldest Oct, coldest Oct 20th century 1905

 7.0 ... tied 6th coldest Octs 1676, 1688

 6.9 ... fifth coldest Oct 1896

 6.5 .... tied 3rd coldest Octs, 1683 and 1692

 6.4 .... second coldest Oct 1817

 5.3 .... coldest Oct 1740

 0.3 .... coldest day 29th, 1895 

__________________ _ _ _ 

Enter your CET forecast by Friday September 30th at midnight, or with increasing late penalties during the first three days of October.

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(2) Optional E.W.P. forecast contest

 

218.1 mm __ 1903 _ wettest 1766-2021... also wettest month of any name

188.0 mm __ 2000 _ wettest 1981-2021 (second wettest all Octobers).

180.2 mm __ 1987 _ third wettest October

164.1 mm __ 2020 _ 8th wettest October

148.8 mm __ 2019 _ t25 wettest (with 1846)

145.3 mm __ 2021 _29th wettest

105.3 mm __ mean for 1992-2021

104.1 mm __ mean for 1981-2010

102.9 mm __ mean for 1991-2020

 96.3 mm __ mean for all 256 Octobers 1766 to 2021

 46.0 mm ___2016 _ driest 1981-2021 (46.7 in 1985 was a close second) (27th, 29th driest Octobers)

 17.2 mm ___1978 _ driest since 1809 (1969 was close at 17.5 mm) (4th and 5th driest Octobers)

__8.8 mm __ 1781 _ driest 1766-2021 ... 1809 _ 10.9 mm and 1784 _ 15.7 mm also drier than 1978

note also: October is the wettest month 1981-2010 although November is wettest 1991-2020, and December is also wetter than October in that 30-year period.

The wettest 30-year average for October was 106.9 mm for 1865-1894, almost matched recently by 106.1 mm for 1986 - 2015. The driest 30-year average for October was 77.1 mm for 1946-75. 

__________________________ _ _ _ _________________________________________________________

Recent Oct EWP ... 145.3 mm _2021 ... 164.1 mm _2020 ... 148.8 mm _2019 ... 75.8 mm _2018 ... 51.5 mm _2017 ... 46.0 mm _2016 ...

... ... ... ... 68.4 mm _ 2015 ... 118.3 mm _2014 ... 157.6 mm _2013 ... 127.7 mm _2012 ... 68.4 mm _2011 ... 84.2 mm _2010.

_________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter your EWP forecast with your CET forecast, same deadlines apply. 

Good luck ! ! 

Edited September 30, 2022 by Roger J Smith

[SteveB]

11.8c and 58mm please 

[Bobd29]

11.3C and 94.2mm please

[Sky High]

8.3c and 100mm, thank you.

[Frigid]

9.9C and 120mm. Thanks

[DiagonalRedLine]

10.2*C and 52mm precipitation, please.

I feel it will be a fairly chilly and dry overall with a mid-Atlantic High being quite influential. The odd warmer Summery spell still trying to break through. Then an unusually cold unstable Northerly on the 29th with widespread rain, hail, sleet and snow showers. 

[feb1991blizzard]

11c and 61mm please, very provisional & highly experimental going up this early.

[Weather26]

11.6C and 117mm please.

[Roger J Smith]

Might be worth drawing attention to the fact that v2.0 CET data has generally fallen 0.2 deg in the recent data period(s) so the normals have dropped, in particular 1981-2010 thanks partly to rounding has fallen from 10.7 to 10.5 C. The legacy CET had us with 10.9 for 1991-2020 and that has dropped to 10.8 now; the only 30-year intervals that rounded to 10.9 in v2.0 were those ending in 2017 and 2018. These decreases started to show up around 1974, before that the changes were much smaller generally speaking.

Also quite a few months are 0.2 or even 0.3 lower than they were in the CET legacy data. The warmest October 2001 lost only 0.1.

[Polar Gael]

11.3C and 112.3mm for me please.

[richie3846]

11.6c please

[emmett garland]

9.7 and 89mm please 

[JeffC]

10.5 degrees C & 100 mm please

[Dancerwithwings]

11.8c & 81mm….Cheers, R 👍

[Summer18]

10.9 & 88mm

Edited September 23, 2022 by Summer18

[The PIT]

October going for 11.8C and 50mm of rain.

[Methuselah]

11.8C and 95mm please, Roger.

[virtualsphere]

11.9C and 101mm please

[DR(S)NO]

11.0c and 90mm 

thank you please

[Shillitocettwo]

   My initial instinct about this being a mild one is no more.

   Essentially October 2022 will be Autumn on steroids, expect some very windy wet spells but I feel it will settle right down and turn October 1997? esque near the end with a massive High over Scandinavia bringing an early chill and some hard early frosts which prevent the daytime high getting too high. As a result a surprising single figure CET of 9.5.C (which will rapidly descend late month) and a triple figure 111mm deluge

[Wold Topper]

10.8c and 93mm please

[NeilN]

10.1c and 88mm

[Mr Maunder]

10.6c and 95mm please.

MM

[John88B]

10c and 100mm please.

[snowray]

11.1c and 68 mm please.