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Polar Vortex / Stratosphere Watch 2022 / 2023


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well it may be a question of what might upwell from the trop, given today’s NAM plot, shows the trop led -AO fingering the underbelly of the strat at nearly 10 hPa in a week or so (GFS forecast of course):

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors

    Meanwhile the strat PV does it’s own thing above.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    Grrr - is the Berlin site now effectively defunct? Anyone know?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

    Elsewhere - will happily that this at 240h for now. Interest in strat activity likely to grow through December I think. 

    Could contain: Person, Plot, Chart, Outdoors

     

    And for early season I'm not sure we have often been in a better context than this. 

    Could contain: Necklace, Jewelry, Accessories

    Edited by Catacol
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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    Regarding SSW, there are hints at the end of the runs of a wave 1 type pattern developing in the upper strat, so this needs watching for the end of December

    Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Disk

    Could contain: Spiral, Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    30 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

    Regarding SSW, there are hints at the end of the runs of a wave 1 type pattern developing in the upper strat, so this needs watching for the end of December

    Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Disk

    Could contain: Spiral, Plot, Chart, Nature, Outdoors

    Given the long-term nature of the Kara High that we have seen in November - and modelling for at least several days of an increasingly strong feature in that area, it is good to see the outer reaches of modelling spotting the lagged impacts. I used to be solely a wave 2 junkie, and the BFTE context did nothing to shift me from that hunt....but a substantial wave 1 event initiated from the Urals and then extended by retrogression of the high to Greenland, giving the vortex a might big bottom-up hoof in the usually robust Atlantic testicles, is a scenario I'd be delighted to see played out. 

    And with GLAAM remaining unusually high in a Nina season the potential to see block reinforcement is certainly there. MJO may even play ball again by mid to late month.

    Question for you Chio as your brain is far bigger than mine (despite your fanatical allegiance to Klopp) - is there any basis for the mutterings on twitter about the Tongan volcano causing such a significant cooling impact in the SH stratosphere that a rebalancing in the NH is possible? My head begins to hurt when I try and make sense of energy budgets, time lags etc etc and the advertised increase in global stratospheric moisture levels of 10% caused by that single event. I'm a bloody historian and not a physicist and it annoys me that my knowledge rather stops at a basic grasp of NH dynamics.. but might chances of an SSW this year be enhanced by this? 

    I wonder why Berlin has slipped. Seems odd - it was such a good site...

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    9 hours ago, Catacol said:

    Given the long-term nature of the Kara High that we have seen in November - and modelling for at least several days of an increasingly strong feature in that area, it is good to see the outer reaches of modelling spotting the lagged impacts. I used to be solely a wave 2 junkie, and the BFTE context did nothing to shift me from that hunt....but a substantial wave 1 event initiated from the Urals and then extended by retrogression of the high to Greenland, giving the vortex a might big bottom-up hoof in the usually robust Atlantic testicles, is a scenario I'd be delighted to see played out. 

    And with GLAAM remaining unusually high in a Nina season the potential to see block reinforcement is certainly there. MJO may even play ball again by mid to late month.

    Question for you Chio as your brain is far bigger than mine (despite your fanatical allegiance to Klopp) - is there any basis for the mutterings on twitter about the Tongan volcano causing such a significant cooling impact in the SH stratosphere that a rebalancing in the NH is possible? My head begins to hurt when I try and make sense of energy budgets, time lags etc etc and the advertised increase in global stratospheric moisture levels of 10% caused by that single event. I'm a bloody historian and not a physicist and it annoys me that my knowledge rather stops at a basic grasp of NH dynamics.. but might chances of an SSW this year be enhanced by this? 

    I wonder why Berlin has slipped. Seems odd - it was such a good site...

    To be fair, I don’t think enough is known about water vapour entering the Strat  from volcanic eruptions in the SH to be sure of NH Strat responses alongside all the other factors. Would welcome a link to research papers that have enough cases and up to date data that have studied this. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    anyone know where I can see 1hpa gfs out to day 16 (from previous few runs - climate is cool shows current ) 
     

    instant weather maps doesn’t seem to work at the moment 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    anyone know where I can see 1hpa gfs out to day 16 (from previous few runs - climate is cool shows current ) 
     

    instant weather maps doesn’t seem to work at the moment 

    This site gives 00Z daily, but not every run and cant see where you can look at previous days that easily

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    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
    2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    anyone know where I can see 1hpa gfs out to day 16 (from previous few runs - climate is cool shows current ) 
     

    instant weather maps doesn’t seem to work at the moment 

    The 1 hPa temp one is over on the other site, not heights. I have asked Paul to see if the GFS viewer here has it available.

     

    Update - 👍 Watch this space..

    Edited by lorenzo
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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Beginning to see signs that the upwelling trop waves are affecting right at the top of the strat with some gfs runs showing a weak vortex at 1hpa and displaced svaalbard/greeny 

    Hello.. displaced vortex to greenie? Which is not good?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    25 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

    Hello.. displaced vortex to greenie? Which is not good?

    I wouldn’t get hung up on just where it’s displaced to at the moment at two weeks range 

    with a strat ridge over the other side of the NH it’s not got many places to go. The point being it’s weak at the top so the strat is unlikely to interfere with the trop patterns playing out - the tpv leading the dance  - this particular run has mid level spv centred asia and tpv the same - it shows how stressed the fella is on that run 

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    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

    A few gfs runs with strengthening upper vortex showing signs of downwelling 

    Not great news then?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    7 minutes ago, Don said:

    Not great news then?

    Needs watching - nothing more for now 

    the eps 10hpa mean shows the pacific ridge squeezing the spv into our sector of the NH (svaalbard/greeny) late week 2 - temps also less cold than gfs/gefs modelling is showing towards the pole as that squeeze occurs.  I wonder if the ec46 will show another drop in zonal flow in a weeks time and signs of another one in two weeks - a sine wave pattern which stops the spv strengthening to levels that would be expected 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Looking at the latest Strat.outputs and like Blue said signs of increasing mean zonal winds at 10hPa. These are gradually downwelling towards mid-level but not yet affecting the troposphere much.

    Images below.

      Could contain: Chart, Smoke Pipe, Line ChartCould contain: Plot, Chart, Heat Map

    In short the vortex is roaring away at the top but down near the surface we still have very light or zero westerly momentum winds.

    Currently the trop with it's blocking pattern is still just about holding sway and up to now has been leading the dance.An interesting battle ahead as to whether this continues into the second half of the month.

    Edited by phil nw.
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    Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
    51 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

    Looking at the latest Strat.outputs and like Blue said signs of increasing mean zonal winds at 10hPa. These are gradually downwelling towards mid-level but not yet affecting the troposphere much.

    Images below.

      Could contain: Chart, Smoke Pipe, Line ChartCould contain: Plot, Chart, Heat Map

    In short the vortex is roaring away at the top but down near the surface we still have very light or zero westerly momentum winds.

    Currently the trop with it's blocking pattern is still just about holding sway and up to now has been leading the dance.An interesting battle ahead as to whether this continues into the second half of the month.

    My concern is what happens when the strong vortex downwells to the surface and we will have to then look for a SSW?  However, it seems that a fair few long rangers believe there is a good possibility of that occurring late December or January?

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
    5 minutes ago, Don said:

    My concern is what happens when the strong vortex downwells to the surface and we will have to then look for a SSW?  However, it seems that a fair few long rangers believe there is a good possibility of that occurring late December or January?

    Yes Don that's what we are all watching for I think.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

    18Z gfs day 10 at 10hPa 

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, Sphere, Outer Space, Astronomy

     

    Wave 1 stress with hint of wave 2. Never say never…

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    The upper Vortex above getting squashed like a pillow. 

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